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Messages - roversi13

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1
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
« on: June 20, 2019, 03:16:35 pm »
Asym,you have already given almost all the answers in an old thread,you posted 2 or 3 years ago.
Very useful "numbers" or %,but not enough for beating sistemacally Bac.
Only useful for creating a few strategies,not strong enough

2
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: June 07, 2019, 07:16:11 am »
I agree about "large picture",about instinct and about small wins and big fluctuations even with EV+.
I'm not convinced about your theory ,illustrated also in some old your messages ,concerning stop playing if at the beginning of a shoe you have some negative decisions with respect to your attack.
You mentioned  3P+ at the beginning, as very bad also for the rest of the shoe,if you are looking for agglomeration 1 and/or 2 P .
No statistical or mathematical evidence of this theory and my test don't confirm it too.
Also about  agglomeration of BB I'm not of your opinion.
Several BB agglomerated,even a run of four time BB very frequent....


3
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
« on: April 20, 2019, 04:57:30 pm »
The control of variance is impossible
If you can do it,you'll ll be next math Nobel Prize
If your method can reduce or cancel variance,flat bet is enough for winning,but progressions speed up your success

4
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 09, 2017, 07:31:30 pm »
Asymbacguy

Your sequence (BBP) is the consequence of B>P
According to your theory also the other patterns you suggested in the past are related to B>P
Because of that(a truth) why not wagering B all the time?
Simpler,but non effective at all,as we know
Why your pattern should be stronger of betting always B?
Both come from the same theory

5
Baccarat Forum / Re: The only way to beat BP baccarat hands
« on: August 26, 2017, 12:15:47 pm »
Very interesting,as usual.
I'm afraid that as/s ratio in not a parameter good enough if calculated in simply 3 or 4 shoes.
At least hundreds shoes are necessary for trusting in the as/s ratio.
If so, it's impossible to deal with that unless you bet once a quarter.....

I prefer your theory on cluster of 1s and 2s at P

6
Baccarat Forum / Another gambler's fallacy
« on: June 24, 2017, 11:00:39 am »
I read very often that waiting for a strong deviation and then bet for the reduction of this deviation is a very clever bet.
NO!
Suppose that in a given shoe P has a strong deviation(4 SD) vs Bank,that is in 50 hands P occurred 38 times and B 12 times.
Very rare,but already seen.....
In the situation above ,you start betting B and here the next decisions:
PBPBPBPBPB...
SD reduced,but you have not won,you have lost 5% on Bank

7
Baccarat Forum / Re: Asymbacguy basic approach
« on: April 27, 2017, 10:07:15 am »
Because BB is more frequent than BP and PB more frequent than PP,betting B after a single B or after a single P (one bet and stop!) should give a very small advantage to the player.
I used to play like that but it didn't work
I had better result betting for streaks of singles(B or P).

I followed a strange theory of a famous mathematician and gambler.
He said that because singles are equivalent to all strings of 2,3,4 and more,but in "more" there are also strings of 100,200... that you'll never see in your gambling life,singles occur a bit more than strings of 2 and more,because singles have to compensate string of 100,200,......too!
I hope that my english is clear enough

8
Baccarat Forum / Re: Asymbacguy basic approach
« on: April 25, 2017, 12:23:07 pm »
Asymbacguy
your post is perfect and very professional.
I'm afraid that only a few members have a Baccarat background and/or a basic education for following your interesting posts and statements.
You have developped a very well known theory,illustrated for the first time in 1930 by Marigny de Grilleau.
His book(sold out) cost 2000/3000 $,when it was available.
His theories,elaborated without a computer support(1930),have been confirmed in the last years,but......
Marigny theories was roulette oriented,a perfect symmetrical and unbeatable game.
All tests ,even the most recent tests(years 2010/1023),failed at roulette.
Marygny was wrong to use them at this casino game.
I'm convinced,like you,that they could be valid at Baccarat(B>P)
I spent a lot of time looking for asymmetrical hands (15% advantage for B) counting cards or at the end of each shoe if not occurred once yet.
Nothing to do!..
Even if I know that to control of the variance is a tough task(or impossible?)i'm convinced that your path is the good one,even if it's time consuming,boring and very often disappointing.
Personnally I observe much more than 1 or 2 shoes ,even if they generate the good conditions for betting:i need at least 5/6 shoes for placing the first bet.
I use a soft negative progression.
I have also tried to bet when a specific unfrequent trigger occurred:it's useless.
I have studied and played a lot an approach based on "arcsine theory"(micro-deviations in a short number of hands):so far the more solid one for me
Your solution is the best and I hope you can further develop your approach.

9
Baccarat Forum / Re: Odd man out strategy
« on: April 05, 2017, 12:48:25 pm »
I think that also ..."to wager with the shoe as to what is producing"...is an illusion.
The cards has no memory and the shoe is unpredictable in short run too...
Like all other negative EV casino games,the best solution is "no play" or play in the closest way at "no play",that is to bet few hands.
Difficult to do.
Very often you pay for your trip (gas,restaurant,beverage...) for one or two bets per day.
But when you come back at home think about the money you won and the money (your BKR) that is still in your pocket(very important)!
I'm able to do this after several years of a suicidal approach...

I agree with you about money management.
As far as the progression is concerned I like 1,3,2,6(or 4),but my experience says that it's too dangerous(less than a negative progression).
I prefer other type of progression,negative first 2 terms and positive ad libitum
 

10
Baccarat Forum / Re: Odd man out strategy
« on: April 05, 2017, 08:44:43 am »
Tested thousands of times years ago:a disaster!....
The fourth pattern you bet against,occurred also 4 or 5 or 6 times in a row.
It' a matter of probability...
Mechanical methods on patterns are a bad approach

11
Baccarat Forum / Re: 5 Shoes a Day!
« on: April 05, 2017, 07:23:00 am »
With my approach "hit and run":
Shoes 1,3,5,6,10,11,12,13,18: +1 big unit
Shoe 8: + 2 big units
Other shoes:no bet

As far as VDW/2 and TBL/2 are concerned,both lose big against 2's,and if I accept that bet selection with VDW/2 is more sophisticated than TBL/2,the result is exactly the same for both progressions with your shoes.
With VDW bets are a bit less frequent.
Maybe you have noticed that variance with VDW/2 is more under control,but I'm afraid it's an illusion.
I've studied VDW/2 for a long time and I 'd like to know why you prefer it to TBL/2.

12
Baccarat Forum / Re: 5 Shoes a Day!
« on: April 04, 2017, 05:07:10 pm »
What's the difference between VDW/2 and TBL/2 (avant-derniere)?
They are the same...

13
Baccarat Forum / Re: My Green Chip Betting System
« on: March 27, 2017, 04:35:42 pm »
Not clear at all.
Even if clear,progressions lose,all of them.
It's a matter of time

14
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
« on: March 23, 2017, 08:42:57 am »
For Beat the Wheel

Are you stating that singles vs series 2 and + are close to equilibrium after 200 /300 spins?
I'd hope so,but my tests confirm the opposite.
I made some tests at "Trente et Quarante",european cards game with two chances,Vig 1%(less than Baccarat) and the behavior of 2 chances versus behavior singles vs series 2 and + were the same;same variances,same difficulties,same losses.

After serie of 2 and series of 3,in your example, you play single.....
But Sputnik march was to play series of 2 and/or series of 3,betting on sleeping singles
Or may be it's exactly the same..no player advantage

My personal experience says that playing patterns is a losing approach,unless you play a very unfrequent pattern that occurs once every 4 or 5 shoes or more
BKR 5 big units,Wingoal 1 unit,flat bet or 1,2,2 losing progression
It's for me the sole approach that pays the vacation for my family once a year,sure not for make a living and stop working

15
Baccarat Forum / Re: I believe Baccarat can be beaten
« on: March 05, 2017, 05:54:48 am »
"..Banker will win the first hand of every shoe more often than not...."
It's obvious.B is more frequent than P at every hands,so also at the second hand at the third.....at the last hand.
I have a McGuire book about roulette:a lot of stupidity as I've never read before!
I hope that about Baccarat he was wiser...

Patience 777
I appreciate your way of playing(hit and run) but forget that you win due to the progression.You're winning due to luck,if you say that your bet selection is weak...
No progression change the house edge.Some progressions are good for a given shoe and bad or very bad for another shoe.
Play positive progression or negative 1,2.
It's useless spend time for inventing new progressions and the old ones are all equivalent:they work here, they don't work there

Alrelax
I used to play like you with positive progressions or flat bet and I spent 3 or 4 hours at the baccarat table(150 days /year)
Now I've changed.My behavior was pathological.I entered a Casino for entertainment and not for earning money.
Entertainement must be paid like a movie,a musical....
Now I TRY to earning money(+1 big unit,BKR 5/6 units)VanderWerden approach or a not frequent trigger(flat bet or negative 1,2 only on Banker)
I know that Van der Werden doesn't give an edge to the player,but,IMHO,the variance is more under control.
My last statement is a mathematical absurdity,but up to now it's my experience
How long will it last?
Congratulations for your interesting posts

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