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Messages - roversi13

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1
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat
« on: Yesterday at 11:16:31 am »
Thanks,I appreciate you share the conclusions of your studies.
But....
A famous european baccarat "scientist" wrote in 1980:
"Tell me your method and i'll write down a shoe that make you lose.
Sooner or later you'll meet these negative decisions.
You can't "buy" a delai of them,even with a huge bkr"

2
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: October 10, 2019, 09:27:43 am »
When are you sure that you are facing a bad shuffling?
During the shoe?During the shuffling itself?
It's depends on the permanence or on the lazy croupier?

3
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: October 02, 2019, 03:59:41 pm »
Albalaha,you are right as far as a martingale of several terms is concerned.
According with my experience a three terms martingale is acceptable,also for recovery

4
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: October 02, 2019, 05:55:24 am »
I have been playing for long period B after PB(looking for double B) or B after BP (looking for single P),that are the two more frequent decisions.
Bad results!
I didn't find any difference between these two attacks and playing B all the time.
Why a difference should exist?

5
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
« on: June 20, 2019, 03:16:35 pm »
Asym,you have already given almost all the answers in an old thread,you posted 2 or 3 years ago.
Very useful "numbers" or %,but not enough for beating sistemacally Bac.
Only useful for creating a few strategies,not strong enough

6
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: June 07, 2019, 07:16:11 am »
I agree about "large picture",about instinct and about small wins and big fluctuations even with EV+.
I'm not convinced about your theory ,illustrated also in some old your messages ,concerning stop playing if at the beginning of a shoe you have some negative decisions with respect to your attack.
You mentioned  3P+ at the beginning, as very bad also for the rest of the shoe,if you are looking for agglomeration 1 and/or 2 P .
No statistical or mathematical evidence of this theory and my test don't confirm it too.
Also about  agglomeration of BB I'm not of your opinion.
Several BB agglomerated,even a run of four time BB very frequent....


7
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
« on: April 20, 2019, 04:57:30 pm »
The control of variance is impossible
If you can do it,you'll ll be next math Nobel Prize
If your method can reduce or cancel variance,flat bet is enough for winning,but progressions speed up your success

8
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 09, 2017, 07:31:30 pm »
Asymbacguy

Your sequence (BBP) is the consequence of B>P
According to your theory also the other patterns you suggested in the past are related to B>P
Because of that(a truth) why not wagering B all the time?
Simpler,but non effective at all,as we know
Why your pattern should be stronger of betting always B?
Both come from the same theory

9
Baccarat Forum / Re: The only way to beat BP baccarat hands
« on: August 26, 2017, 12:15:47 pm »
Very interesting,as usual.
I'm afraid that as/s ratio in not a parameter good enough if calculated in simply 3 or 4 shoes.
At least hundreds shoes are necessary for trusting in the as/s ratio.
If so, it's impossible to deal with that unless you bet once a quarter.....

I prefer your theory on cluster of 1s and 2s at P

10
Baccarat Forum / Another gambler's fallacy
« on: June 24, 2017, 11:00:39 am »
I read very often that waiting for a strong deviation and then bet for the reduction of this deviation is a very clever bet.
NO!
Suppose that in a given shoe P has a strong deviation(4 SD) vs Bank,that is in 50 hands P occurred 38 times and B 12 times.
Very rare,but already seen.....
In the situation above ,you start betting B and here the next decisions:
PBPBPBPBPB...
SD reduced,but you have not won,you have lost 5% on Bank

11
Baccarat Forum / Re: Asymbacguy basic approach
« on: April 27, 2017, 10:07:15 am »
Because BB is more frequent than BP and PB more frequent than PP,betting B after a single B or after a single P (one bet and stop!) should give a very small advantage to the player.
I used to play like that but it didn't work
I had better result betting for streaks of singles(B or P).

I followed a strange theory of a famous mathematician and gambler.
He said that because singles are equivalent to all strings of 2,3,4 and more,but in "more" there are also strings of 100,200... that you'll never see in your gambling life,singles occur a bit more than strings of 2 and more,because singles have to compensate string of 100,200,......too!
I hope that my english is clear enough

12
Baccarat Forum / Re: Asymbacguy basic approach
« on: April 25, 2017, 12:23:07 pm »
Asymbacguy
your post is perfect and very professional.
I'm afraid that only a few members have a Baccarat background and/or a basic education for following your interesting posts and statements.
You have developped a very well known theory,illustrated for the first time in 1930 by Marigny de Grilleau.
His book(sold out) cost 2000/3000 $,when it was available.
His theories,elaborated without a computer support(1930),have been confirmed in the last years,but......
Marigny theories was roulette oriented,a perfect symmetrical and unbeatable game.
All tests ,even the most recent tests(years 2010/1023),failed at roulette.
Marygny was wrong to use them at this casino game.
I'm convinced,like you,that they could be valid at Baccarat(B>P)
I spent a lot of time looking for asymmetrical hands (15% advantage for B) counting cards or at the end of each shoe if not occurred once yet.
Nothing to do!..
Even if I know that to control of the variance is a tough task(or impossible?)i'm convinced that your path is the good one,even if it's time consuming,boring and very often disappointing.
Personnally I observe much more than 1 or 2 shoes ,even if they generate the good conditions for betting:i need at least 5/6 shoes for placing the first bet.
I use a soft negative progression.
I have also tried to bet when a specific unfrequent trigger occurred:it's useless.
I have studied and played a lot an approach based on "arcsine theory"(micro-deviations in a short number of hands):so far the more solid one for me
Your solution is the best and I hope you can further develop your approach.

13
Baccarat Forum / Re: Odd man out strategy
« on: April 05, 2017, 12:48:25 pm »
I think that also ..."to wager with the shoe as to what is producing"...is an illusion.
The cards has no memory and the shoe is unpredictable in short run too...
Like all other negative EV casino games,the best solution is "no play" or play in the closest way at "no play",that is to bet few hands.
Difficult to do.
Very often you pay for your trip (gas,restaurant,beverage...) for one or two bets per day.
But when you come back at home think about the money you won and the money (your BKR) that is still in your pocket(very important)!
I'm able to do this after several years of a suicidal approach...

I agree with you about money management.
As far as the progression is concerned I like 1,3,2,6(or 4),but my experience says that it's too dangerous(less than a negative progression).
I prefer other type of progression,negative first 2 terms and positive ad libitum
 

14
Baccarat Forum / Re: Odd man out strategy
« on: April 05, 2017, 08:44:43 am »
Tested thousands of times years ago:a disaster!....
The fourth pattern you bet against,occurred also 4 or 5 or 6 times in a row.
It' a matter of probability...
Mechanical methods on patterns are a bad approach

15
Baccarat Forum / Re: 5 Shoes a Day!
« on: April 05, 2017, 07:23:00 am »
With my approach "hit and run":
Shoes 1,3,5,6,10,11,12,13,18: +1 big unit
Shoe 8: + 2 big units
Other shoes:no bet

As far as VDW/2 and TBL/2 are concerned,both lose big against 2's,and if I accept that bet selection with VDW/2 is more sophisticated than TBL/2,the result is exactly the same for both progressions with your shoes.
With VDW bets are a bit less frequent.
Maybe you have noticed that variance with VDW/2 is more under control,but I'm afraid it's an illusion.
I've studied VDW/2 for a long time and I 'd like to know why you prefer it to TBL/2.

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