Yup.
Any single shoe won't concede the room to get everything more or less balanced or even appearing once, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

That's why, imo, is so important to focus our attention about ranges splitted into expected ranges and actual ranges.

A note: doubles are streaks and two or more singles are considered as streaks as well.

as.

Yes Al, yes. 

Technically speaking a plan carefully considering the above two aspects is unbeatable as:

1) on average the columns filling speed cannot be too slow or too fast at most "sections";

2) for sure symmetrical patterns are going to be overwhelmed by asymmetrical situations being more probable than expected in relationshipo of an independent 50/50 proposition.

The fact that each bet is unfairly payed (B hands) or getting a slight unfavourable probability to show up (P hands) won't get us much hurt as itlr the average card distribution will be able to cancel/overcome such negative edge.

Example.

A streaky shoe is going to fill less columns than average, it means that key cards are somewhat clumped by an "unlikely" pace most likely forming unidirectional rhythms favoring streaks. Therefore slowing down the columns filling speed.
 
On the other end, long chopping lines favor the CFS as there's a strong force orienting the results to be prolonged at the right end of the shoe. Thus key cards are getting a 1 pace. 

Both such deviated events are the reflex of symmetrical situations being slight less likely than asymmetrical spots.

Now, pretend to play black jack and getting a negative count (symmetrical situations at baccarat), what are you going to do?

I guess you'll bet the minimum wager or, best, quit that table.

But at baccarat we have the wonderful option to stay away from betting as what came symmetrical most of the times remains proportionally symmetrical, unless we set up multiple random walks to rely upon, obviously directed to get back to back asymmetrical spots.

Ranges of asym/sym patterns
 
A pattern could be symmetrically placed one, two or more times.

Most bac players will hope to get a "more times" symmetrical pattern, unfortunately that's the less probable option happening.
In fact a slight stu.pi.d multilayered progression (see KFB ideas) made at getting asymmetrical spots after one or two symmetrical situations can't lose itlr.

Remember that streaks are the most important tool to set up a plan upon.
Remember that what happens after a given streak remains the most important tool to rely upon.

For example, it's impossible to get 3/3+ consecutive streaks happening at all four common roads (BR, Byb, SR and CR) and the same happens for every intermediate situation.
At baccarat the asymmetrical world slowly but constantly work toward asym patterns.

Once a pattern had shown up consecutively shaped (sym pattern), we're not interested to chase it.

Our edge comes out as a slight portion of the shoes will form univocal or most univocal asymmetrical patterns, as itlr the asym force will overwhelm the sym propensity, even if we are destined to endure some harsh negative situations.

See you in a couple of days.

as.

Keypoints:

a) average CFS

b) math expected and actual result asymmetrical/symmetrical patterns.

 

The best tool why casinos will make a lot of money from baccarat is because no constant patterns can be exploited: everything changes whimsically, very often ridiculizing the math values.

After all baccarat is just a game of trying to approximate at best the actual card distribution along with the related most likely (and important) sub products: real results.

The core problem of baccarat is that per any shoe dealt we want to be ahead (or worst, to be a lot ahead) about a kind of taxed coin flip situation.

It's impossible.

In our opinion the only way to erase and possibly invert the HE is by putting things into frames and trying to find reasons and collect data to prove otherwise.

More later

as.

Ready to rock.

See you soon

as.

Hi KFB!

Say from 3-5 up to 12-15 bet per shoe.

Currently we do not make any action at side bets, people playing with us hate them.

as.

QuoteAsym:

"...Arrange the cards into a shoe as whimisically as you wish and you'll notice that an overalternating 0/any different number distribution will be the less probable "movement".

In practical terms and without a proper training is quite difficult to spot such triggers and making the future bet (that's why algos should make the work for us), anyway the first player always relies upon doubles (or other specific patterns) being absent for given frames transformed into numbers...."

that's interesting.

Thanks KFB!

I guess you, Alrelax and me would constitute a formidable team. 
Hope to play together very soon!

as.

Quote from: alrelax on October 20, 2024, 04:17:18 AMHere is a picture of an EZ Bac table with no commission.  Note the 3 betting spots per seat.  2 are for back bettors standing or sitting behind the main seated player. 

Most of the casinos in the central and upper Midwest have these with limits anywhere from $1,000 to $10,000 max per hand.  Also if the seated player allows it, another can cap their wagers if no spot is available. 

That's interesting.
In some weekends I've seen people waiting hours to get an open seat at EZ tables, with this simple  innovation the number of players allowed to wager will be tripled up.

Yet high end premises still do not offer EZ tables (I suspect, lol, for HE issues...)

- 1.06% is slight better than 1.01% (Banker bets)
- 1.46% is way better than 1.01% (Banker bets where a winning 6 is payed half vs EZ baccarat)
- 14% and over on Tiger, Lucky Six and Pairs side bets is a lot better than 7% and 10% on Dragon F-7 and Panda bets.

What do you think about that?

as.

First player numbers ranges are interesting.

For example to get a number 0 homogeneous sequence (no absent doubles sequences as explained above) we need to cross this exact succession:

1) AABAABAAB...(0, 0, 0) or

2) AABBB...AABBB...AA...BBB (0, 0, 0)

3) Any mix of the two above situations (AABAABBB...AABAABBB..etc) ---> 0, 0, 0, 0.

Arrange the cards into a shoe as whimisically as you wish and you'll notice that an overalternating 0/any different number distribution will be the less probable "movement".

In practical terms and without a proper training is quite difficult to spot such triggers and making the future bet (that's why algos should make the work for us), anyway the first player always relies upon doubles (or other specific patterns) being absent for given frames transformed into numbers.

as.   

One of the interesting property of BP doubles is that they remain the most probable patterns, yet they are more likely to show up clustered (consecutive) by quite "detectable" distributions.
That means that their sd values of clustered (back to back) apparition is quite restricted, especially when we take into account the many possible sub sequences deriving from the original BP succession.

Obviously a "consecutive double" could be "prevented" by betting toward a single after any double or toward a 3/3+ streak after a following two streak (AAB bet A or AABB bet B and vice versa).

Along any shoe there are no many consecutive double clusters superior than 2 (minimum cluster) happening at all common derived roads as the CFS sooner or later must get a more specific speed negating a kind of overalternating movement (+ - + - + - etc).
When the 2 value is surpassed, we do not want to chase anything, just letting 'em go without further betting.

Naturally even "isolated" doubles present many situations to be attacked but exposing ourselves to bet too many hands that is always detrimental to our plan.   

More later

as. 

Consider this quite deviated shoe fragment as

BBBBBBB/P/B/P/BBBBB/P/B/P/B/P/B/P

That is a - - - - - + + + + - - - - + + + + + + + CFS sequence

A hell of a shoe's portion, meaning we do not want to set up sophisticated strategies to try to "guess" the actual + and - distribution. We simply follow through (3, 3, 3, 3..), that's it.

Yet the same BP sequence form those derived roads:

Byb:

b/rr/b/rrr/bb/rrrrr (CFS= + - + + - - + - + - - - -) --->  1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 3

Sr:

b/r/b/rrr/b/r/b/rrrr (CFS= + + + - - + + + + - - -) ----> 3, 2, 3, 3

Cr:

bb/rrr/b/rr/b/rrr (CFS= - + - - + + - + + - -) ---> 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, (2)

We see that just one out of the three d.r. (sr) seems to "mirror" the original BP succession.
The other two d.r. have formed a lot of 1-2 successions where now the "3" becomes the only enemy (appearing just once at the end of the byb line).

Obviously even the sr could become a possible "target" as no 1s and just one 2 happened)

Now another quite deviated and different shoe's fragment.

PPPPPP/BBBB/PPPPPPPPPPP/BBBBBB/PPP/B

CFS: - - - - - + - - - + - - - - - - - - - - + - - - - - + - - + (3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2)

Derived roads:

byb:

rrr/b/rrr/b/rrrrrr/b/rrrrr/b/rr/b (- - + + - - + + - - - - - + + - - - - + + - +)

CFS= 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1)

sr:

rrrrr/b/rrrr/b/rrr/b/r/b/rr/b (- - - - + + - - - + + - - + + + + - +)

CFS= 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1)

cr:

rrrrrrrr/b  (- - - - - - - +)  CFS= 3

Ok, you'll tell me that only an id.i.ot could lose at this shoe fragment (BTW a real shoe) but that's not the point.
Instead, notice for example how long some values remained "absent" per every succession (2s at BP road, 1s at byb and sr; actually cr line didn't get the room to provide other than one (long) 3 outcome.
In reality there are several ways to find out asymmetrical spots (e.g. 'b' isolated signs at byb and sr, etc)

Unfortunately (actually it's our luck as casinos rely upon less deviated shoes) such two deviated shoes' portions won't happen so frequently, yet there are some considerations to be made.

For example the first shoe's fragment is a lot more probable than the second one, so in some sense we should be more inclined to rely upon a kind of "inverse" probability whenever we want to take into account simultaneously several random walks.

More later

as.

Thanks KFB, I appreciate a lot your comments here!!

Before continuing to present our "technical" findings and ideas, let's consider again what casinos are instructed to think about baccarat:

a) The game is randomly distributed, so no strategy will work itlr;

b) No matter what, casinos are mathematically favorite to win per every single bet placed or, more precisely, the sum of placed bets will be EV-;

c) All gambling experts have denied a possible bac vulnerability (besides the side bets card counting).

After several years of studying this wonderful game by many statistical and math aspects we got those possible answers:

a) Outcomes are randomly distributed? It's a total bighorn.sh.it.

b) Yes, any bet is "supposed" to be EV-, but there are more probable ranges where the EV is at least 0 (think about those hands not forming an asymmetrical hand favoring the Banker side) or where a "normal" flow is slightly more entitled to go toward the right side (CFS) at some points of the infinite shoe sub successions we can build up.

c) Gambling experts do not know a fkng nothing about how the randomness will work at baccarat.
Mainly as they haven't properly considered the RVM and M.V. Smoluchowski "theories" applied to slight dependent and asymmetrical finite successions.
Conclusion is that bac successions aren't randomly distributed. Period.

Even at perfect "coin flip" independent sequences, there are studies which have shown that certain patterns are more probable to be encountered FIRST than others (think about the "waiting time", etc).

OoOoO

If the baccarat world (in any possible sub sequence derived by the original BP succession) would present homogeneous + and - signs for long (e.g. +++-----+++++---), the game would be easily beatable.
On the other end, more likely sequences happen as ++-+--+++-+---+ or -+-+---+-+--+.

The common denominator is that a kind of overalternating line (+-+-+...) happens just at the original BP succession or at one derived r/b succession, as CFS will get a way different speed at many possible sub sequences, thus making plenty of room to clustered lines.

Nonetheless, clustered consecutive + and - signs equal or greater than 3 are not coming out around the corner, for sure the vast majority of the times they'll happen just at one of the possible main road and at one of the three derived roads.

In fact, when a given line will present a unlikely univocal 3/3+ clustered situation for long, most remaining derived roads or main road will be more probable distributed by a 1-2 step.

In a couple of days some real examples.

as.

4. + and - signs move around isolated and clustered lines in relationship of the spots considered to build a given succession

That means almost nothing, whether only one succession (BP) or one sub succession is taken as the main "target" to base our wagering upon, but holding a very important role whenever we consider ALL possible sub successions as now at the vast majority of the times "extremes" cannot come out of blue for long for two or more sub sequences, either by quantity and (more importantly) by quality.

For example and again considering just the BP succession and the three common derived roads, the overalternating results pace happening simultaneously at two or more lines will be the slight less probable situation, yet the word "slight" means it'll be more than sufficient to erase and invert the HE.
Of course providing to understand that at baccarat there's a general probability to get overalternating movements (average CFS) and an actual probability to get overalternating result lines, especially when we are considering different result sequences.

In fact the bac production is asymmetrical in the past, now and in the future, our task shouldn't be oriented to "hope" that such asymmetry will particularly last for long, just approximating any card distribution by more likely "ranges".

More later

as.

The core principle is that a finite asymmetrical distribution enforced by an additional asymmetrical factor dictated by the rules will make slight more probable the formation of decent asymmetrical sequences.

By taking into account the columns filling speed we've seen that an overalternating movement (-+-+-+...) can only happen with the BBPPBBPP...sequence (or rrbbrrbb...etc). 
It's now that the "general long term findings" will help us to approximate when such kind of movement will happen, obviously without interest to know "how long" the overalternating sequences will last.

Anything different than that will 100% form a + or - cluster (++ or --) and again who cares about its lenght?

Therefore any 3/3+ streak will form at least a - - cluster, any streak ending up followed by a single is a + + sequence and any couple or more singles succession is a + + ...line.
The only possible pattern where + or - signs are coming out as isolated are whenever any 3/3+ streak will be followed by a double then another "no double" streak (BBBPPBBB ---> - - + - + - -.
In this scenario we'll get three isolated + or - signs.

Yet even in this example we could find a kind of asymmetrical distribution (+ coming out as isolated)

Now and to expand the last concept, let's build a sort of perfect asymmetrical BP succession where 
+ and - signs take an "isolated/clustered" shape at both sides.

For example a succession as BBPBBBPPBPPPBBPB
The columns filling speed (CFS) is - + + - - + - + + - - + - + +

Isolated - signs and + signs are followed by - and + clusters, yet the shifting side pace is one or two.

A more complicated example:

BBBBBB
PP
B
P
BBBB
PP
B
P
BB

CFS is - - - - - + - + + + - - - + - + + - -

Any - or + sign is followed by a different same sign quality (clustered followed by isolated and vice versa), yet isolated signs are just two in a row and the original succession is made by two consecutive streaks-two consecutive singles-two consecutive streaks-two consecutive singles...

Besides of this succession and of many correspondent situations (streaks lenght and singles lenght) any bac shoe will make quite room to + or - clusters (++ or --) and anyway distinct forms of apparition (isolated or clustered + or - signs) will be sooner or later followed by opposite shapes. The above example was extremized to present a perfect 0 step isolated/clustered delay as any isolated or clustered + and - sign (considered individually) was always followed by an opposite shape.

In any way we wish to consider result lines only those things could happen:

1- An important part of the shoe will make + or - signs being clustered at some point;

2- + or - individual signs shape will change along the shoe;

3- Itlr + and - signs move more likely by 1 or 2 steps vs superior steps (sums will be slight shifted toward the left), but this feature must be considered by a lot of caution as our primary strategy will always be directed to get clusters of something.
So by taking into account those opposite factors, only +/- double clusters will get us a two-fold propensity. Obviously once a pattern had surpassed the first (losing) 1-step, we should not be interested to chase any longer.

4- Even consecutive isolated + or - signs will constitute a pattern, but most of the times this is just a second-level strategy as generally it happens at few segments of the shoe.

See you next week.

as.

3- Most of the times the original BP succession will make room to many "opposite" simultaneous situations happening at sub sequences

And of course those opposite situations are showing up by more likely "ranges".

Let's consider the basic (very simplified) example of the common derived roads (byb, sr and cr).

The BP shoe's fragment is BPBPBPBP

byb: r,r,r,r,r,r

sr:  r,r,r,r,r

cr: r,r,r,r

At all three d.r., just one "color" happened: the red. This is strong asymmetrical situation derived by a kind of perfect symmetrical BP original sequence.

Along with BBPPBBPPBBPP... and BBBPPPBBBPPP... (and other very unlikely superior perfect symmetrical BP sequences) those are the only spots where all d.r. present just red spots.

Then there are the infrequent long B/P streaks forming possible long red successions that anyway must start with a blue sign at all derived roads.

In fact long BP streaks will delay the columns filling speed at all derived roads, so producing long lines of -1 spots.
Yet here the overalternating results production will be somewhat reduced. But mostly by an "isolated/clustered" statistical point of view as the +/- rhythm cannot be uniformed shaped for long.

More later

as.