Thanks Al, very welcome thoughts from yours.

You wrote:

Bac shoes produce unknowns.  Period.  The trick is to identify something to follow or stick with whatever it is you can profit by.  As far as the sticking with a grind, boy—to me that is tough.

100% true.
But to beat the unknowns we must rely upon "knows", surely sticking with what the shoe is presenting could be a decent rule to follow. But it's not sufficient, IMO. At least for the vast majority of bac players that do not have your experience to know when to stop and when to follow through. Let alone when starting the betting.
Maybe it's the "sections" concept you've stressed along in your posts.

as.

Q) Why we should get more wins than losses, the only condition to be ahead itlr?

A) Because we use various forms of a conditional probability dictated by asymmetry (widely intended); In practice that means to try to discard the most number of supposedly expected losing spots, even at the cost to miss some or (rarely) many winning hands.

The heat to find profitable opportunities around any corner is the #1 reason why casinos collect so much money from bac tables.

Betting few or very few hands is the key to success.

Some shoes are unplayable.

The game is not truly random as experts keep stating (fortunately) especially when some forms of shuffling are utilized.
And paradoxically when shuffling manufactures try to produce hyper random shoes, things go even better.

We'll see this in a couple of days.

as.

Are you serious Al?
Did you really want to shut down this wonderful site?
I still have to read a lot of posts made in the past by people who I'd consider among the best gambling scholars, you first.

Yep, we do not need a forum with magic systems, garbage sellers or threads soaked by fights and verbal abuse.
Thanks for your harsh work Al!

I know for sure these pages are read by people managing baccarat pits, super high stakes players, even a couple of poker pros having each multiple WSOP bracelets at their wrist.
Of course they are not interested to interact, but they like to read. 

I agree about Albalaha ideas, particularly I like this passage

This is not just a forum but a big compilation of years of our combined wisdom and experiences. Do not spoil this.

PS: when the forum is off for maintenance you should find another backup way to gather.

Thanks Al!

as.

Whenever we choose to utilize a 75% probability to succeed, we know to get more clustered 75% spots than 75% isolated spots and vice versa while taking into account the opposite 25% probability.

Notice that such asymmetrical probability is always made by two layered bets, so for example it's not the same to bet twice at baccarat than to wager 27 numbers out of 36 numbers at roulette (zero/es ignored), even if the probability of success stands at 75% at both cases.

After all the game moves around more likely asymmetrical movements and less likely symmetrical lines, so we need to find out an asymmetrical random walk capable to catch more asymmetry than (virtual) symmetry.

Without getting our mind and algos blogging, best way to take is to consider a given 25% probability pattern as an "enemy" by different weights belonging to a) a general probability and b) an actual probability.
Everything classified by different sub-classes of probability:

FIRST STEP

1- a 25% probability should come out by more isolated patterns than clustered patterns.

2- a 75% probability should come out by more clustered patterns than isolated patterns.

SECOND STEP

3- a 25% probability coming out clustered should more likely stop after one cluster. 

4- a 75% probability should come out clustered after having shown up isolated one time.

THIRD STEP

5- a 25% probability coming out clustered two times in a row should more likely stop after two clusters.

6- a 75% probability should come out clustered after having shown up isolated two times in a row.

No need to go further and of course no need to bet a fkng dime before some deviated situations happened or while "chasing" more likely events standing for long, where 'long' just means any situation surpassing a single cutoff cluster.

See you tomorrow

as.

Spotting EV+ bets in the realm of EV- world.

Definitely when we're betting 1 to get a 0.9894 or 0.9876 return we are not doing ourselves a favor and that's what happens at the vast majority of bettable spots we'll infinitely encounter along the way.
So, yes, baccarat provides some (albeit relatively rare) EV+ spots even whether not intended by a mathematical point of view.
Thus in some sense such EV+ spots cannot exist either for casinos and for gambling "experts". But they do for some acute players.

The simplified answer of this finding belongs to the 'range' and 'ranges' concept.

A range is any pattern belonging to the same category (or categories) having a lenght different than 0.
So when a X pattern remains silent no X range is coming out, then the opposite Y pattern will increase its lenght by one unity and so forth.

Baccarat is not roulette where a careful study of ranges is of no avail for us as each spin is completely independent from the previous one.
I mean that baccarat shoes are way way more likely to produce situations we have labeled as "codes", that is pattern successions transformed into numbers more likely to be detected not by precise numbers but by ranges.

Such codes derive from very very large LIVE samples (splitted into actual shuffling source categories), so in some sense we know what to expect as 'best' or as 'worst'.
And of course what we're really interested to bet at is the more likely 'average' world.

Anyway, the actual shoe production will make a more or less substantial role to what should be more expected (so enforcing a general way of betting) or to start the action of a new factor neglecting a more likely pattern as it simply didn't show up for a large portion of the actual shoe.

Obviously itlr most profits come out when general and actual tend to correspond or to pass positive values, yet most losses are avoided whenever an actual patterns flow do not correspond to the expected. Many times instructing us not to bet a dime at that shoe.

More later.

as.

Thank you KFB!

Good points as Always..

IMO, registering multiple bets made by ranges is one of the keys to have success at this game.

as.

The core of the problem is not hoping to get a 0.75 A probability standing for long or arranged within too easily detectable terms vs a 0.25 B probability, but trying to approximate the more likely movements happening along any shoe dealt after having ascertained that the bac model is asymmetrical.

A perfect world would consist of endless sequences of AAABAAABAAAB...
In this case the A/B sums will be 0 (before vig) as expected. Yet the less acute player in the world would win a lot of money at this succession.

A nearly perfect world would consist of all A clustered events of different lenght (e.g any AAB sequence would be good), and/or B isolated events (ABAABABAAAABA..etc)
Notice that in both examples the expected equal sum won't be 0 as the B altered pace impact produces negative totals.

Actually most part of shoes dealt will present longer or shorter A sequences than expected by average values (that is 3) and of course B events will pose a real threat when they tend to come out clustered than isolated.

Since the game is surely asymmetrically distributed, the vast majority of the times any single shoe will produce A/B ratios not belonging to a 3:1 ratio, and more often than not the final sum    will diverge by 2 or greater positive or negative values.
Naturally such values are in direct relationship of the number of hands dealt so far, so just to speak, we can't expect heavy balancements after a strong deviation especially if we'd get rid of many hands not belonging to the 1,2 and 3 category.   

More importantly, we should know that a fair portion of shoes dealt will take a homogeneous direction or a heavily shifted direction from the start to the end of the shoe, providing to place a moderate amount of bets. It's when A>>>B or B>>>A
In this instance we have reasons to keep betting the clustered scenario but knowing that it'll be slight more likely to get long A clustered sequences than proportional long B clustered sequences.

So when B predominates, it's better not to bet a dime.

At the other vast majority of occurences, a good rule of thumb would be to place a bet towards A events coming out clustered at least one time, knowing that a strong profitable long term spot will be to wait two isolated A events to show up then starting to wager.

Such probability (along with many correspondent others) will raise esponentially after one, two or more failed attempts, so enticing the use of a progressive plan for people not wanting to wait and having at their disposal a proper bankroll.

Naturally a plan like this works as it wins by a mere flat betting scheme too, maybe encountering some harsh variance times but getting the best of it itlr.

Say that at most situations it's like playing an average 54/46 proposition long term game whatever the side wagered.

as. 

Single shoe totals

It's interesting to notice that a moderate number of selected bets per shoe using the 0.75/0.25 probability of success won't form the classical bell curve results after several trials, instead tending to produce a slight concave upwards curvature around the 0 (neutral) value.
For simplicity we ignore the vig that of course will slowly shift the results towards the left (negative) part of the graphic.

Thus per every shoe played at the end of it most likely total outcomes will be either moderately or heavily shifted towards one side or the another one.
IMO it's an important factor we should be aware when we want to approximate at best when and/or how many times to chase a pattern or to simply let the hands go without our intervention.

More later

as.

Quote from: KungFuBac on April 27, 2024, 02:26:05 AMThx AsymBacGuy. Good thread.

In Post #1033 above:
"...Think about sections containing 6, 7 or more consecutive streaks without no singles and the exact opposite scenario.
Those are natural "strong" deviations that must be balanced along the way, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

Anyway such balancement most of the time doesn't act symmetrically as the transitory deficit will be overcome by low or moderate changes of direction, privileging opposite short patterns than long patterns...."

For me this "MODERATE CHANGE" being detected early on is the key to seeing it just a split second sooner. This is one of many reasons I prefer to play a shoe from the burn onward/ not after the shoe has started.
Its no different then if someone tells you their blood pressure is 120/80 or their pulse is 72. The values become more important once we learn this persons historical average, and how much it has changed, and in which direction.
Its all about the change.




Continued Success,

Hi KFB and thanks!

I can't agree more on that...

as.

Multiple triggers vs single trigger

If we are able to stay put (no betting) for a lot of hands, a single trigger can get us an interesting statistical advantage as it's just a matter of time (number of shoes dealt) that the asymmetrical model will produce the clustered more likely distributions we're expecting for.
Technically itlr the number of clustered events will be equal to the isolated events, but we know that there's a constant slight force orienting the results towards short "less likely" sequences than long "less likely" sequences.

Nevertheless, any more likely clustered event of any lenght must come out clustered-clustered than clustered-isolated, then more clustered-clustered-clustered than clustered-clustered-isolated and so on.
On the other end we've seen that some random walks applied to less likely events (0.25 probability) are more probable to stop than expected after two clustered situations, so enticing the probability to get a 0.75 probability event.

Anyway if a 0.25 probability must catch up a 0.75 probability, it means that rarer situations sooner or later must involve a strong clustered (albeit unlikely) factor capable to erase most part of 0.75 clusters.

But as already sayed here, even though a 0.25 probability could show up consecutively even 6 times in a row (L=18 units), the 0.75 proportional counterpart is entitled to come out by way superior consecutive sequences up to 31 or even 35 (when proper random walks are applied).

So the cumulative losses vs cumulative wins (vig considered) will be constantly shifted towards the winning side.

Anyway those are just kind of positive or negative "jackpots" needing a lot of time (and patience) to be exploited, some people making a living at this game know that multiple triggers considered will accelerate the bet selection process.

Say there are four main triggers to simultaneously look for (1- singles considered by one/two lenght, 2- streaks lenght considered by 2/3 or 3/4 classes, 3- consecutive single or consecutive streak scenario happening at either side, 4- betting two times the same side whether the first was a losing bet.

Even if the house knows our plan and willing to voluntarily arrange cards to make us to lose (obviously a thing than never happens at serious premises) we'll get:

1- Singles distribution are affected by the streaks density, poor streaky shoes will make more probable long chopping sequences; since we do not want other than a clustered (or clustered/clustered) one/two single successions, in this instance we won't find ourselves in the position to make many bets.

2- More is streaky the actual shoe and greater will be the probability to get 2/3 or 3/4 streak classes clustered as the respectively 4/5 streaks enemy or 5 streaks enemy will be well defined in their average apparition.

3- This factor is strictly dependent on the random walk utilized, that is it raises the probability to get either relatively longer single or streaky sequences than expected.

4- Betting two times the same side is particularly powerful when the first (losing) bet was made at Banker side and not involving the singles one/two distribution. This is the only exception bypassing random walks suggestions.
Notice that after one/two chopping sequences were surpassed, the most likely streak happening is coming out at B side. Anyway by betting the same side two times in a row at moderate/long chopping sequences (and at many other successions), the probability to win within a couple of attempts is 100%.

See you soon

as.

Normally anytime we choose to bet a side we hope to be more right than wrong, without giving the proper value to the numerous factors that might alter in our favor the hand's destiny.

Our algorithms act by a different and more sophisticated way: They collect the most number of actual shoe informations and they put them in relationship of a general probability ascertained after thousand and thousands of real shoes data.

It could happen that actual shoe results will substantially differ from "expected" outcomes, that's why we have increased the real betting parameters weight. After all it'll be way better to wait than hoping to be right at too confused situations.

Hoping for the best is the recreational players mantra, expecting the worst and playing the probabilities is the pros way to accumulate profits.

Let's see in a very simplified fashion what are our algos lines of operations.

1) Smaller is the number of bets made, greater will be the probability NOT to fall into the undetectable variance's realm.
It's not a coincidence that casinos want us to make a lot of bets, knowing very well that the probability to be right will esponentially decrease with the number of bets placed.

Notice that casinos will win a lot more money by exploiting players bad attitudes than by taking advantage of the HE, so mathematical issues take a minor role in that.

The math assumption why no matter how are diluted our bets the probability to win is always EV- belongs just to 2+2=5 losers.
Fortunately when a gambling game cannot be resolved by math it remains unbeatable.

2) Since the bac productions are asymmetrically produced whatever the reasons involved, selectively chasing the clustering effect of something will get more positive sequences in quantity and quality than expected by a perfect independent 50/50 proposition.
It's just a matter of time (and we should consider 'time' in a different way than casinos do).

3) Frequency and rhythm are both two decisive factors to take care of, actually casinos and mathematicians do care only about frequency not knowing a fk about rhythms of presentation.

4) Average sd values of certain pattern presentation and distribution.
If given random walks action applied to several thousands and thousands of shoes data provide 2.5 sigma negative deviation maximum levels, it means that the betting model is somewhat restrained in its negative fluctuations. On the other end the positive deviations counterpart had demonstrated to reach 3.5 or even 4 sigma values. A big edge, I guess.   

5) Raising the probability of success facilitates the clustering/isolated pattern distribution.

Anyone reading my pages knows that it's a good idea to rely upon a 0.75 probability distribution as being more detectable than a mere 50/50 or so probability.     
Actually there are times when a given losing bet entices the same losing side to be wagered again and situations when the simple random walks action suggests to bet a side independently of the previous hand's destiny.

Itlr the random walk action takes a primary role, yet when the first (losing) bet was made at Banker side, we have more reasons to bet again the Banker side for obvious reasons.
This is just the sole situation we might alter the random walk pace that we've instructed to consider outcomes as 50/50 placed.

6) More likely distributions

Whereas it's relatively likely to encounter consecutive clustered singles not belonging to the two category, it'll be slight less probable to encounter 2-3 or 3-4 lenght streaks not coming out clustered at least one time.

Exaggerating a bit and for the lovers of progressive plans, after two isolated 2-3 or 3-4 streak situations, a clustered 2-3 or 3-4 event will happen by degrees of probability well superior than what math dictates.

Of course the same progressive plan could be applied by a positive wagering "chasing" the clustered situations superior than two, relying upon the verified long term streaks propensity to form same or next to same lenght categories.

7) More likely events distribution

If we use a 0.75 probability to succeed, we'll get an expected W/L 3:1 ratio, but since any shoe is asymmetrically shaped such ratio will be disregarded several times along any shoe dealt. Say more often than not. 
Thus we should discard from our plan (in a way or another) those ideal average ratios as being less probable than what an asymmetrical distribution will be capable to do.

The list is not over yet.

See you in a couple of days.

as.

Everybody knows that singles constitute 25% of total hands dealt, the remaining hands will arrange into streaks of different lenght.
So after 20 hands dealt, on average we'll expect 5 singles and 5 streaks; after 40 hands 10 singles and 10 streaks and after 60 hands 15 singles and 15 streaks.

Of course those percentages will equal itlr and also at the vast majority of shoes dealt, meaning that we will expect relatively low deviations.

Yet everybody knows that a single shoe is a world apart, the same about few consecutive shoes dealt.
Think about sections containing 6, 7 or more consecutive streaks without no singles and the exact opposite scenario.
Those are natural "strong" deviations that must be balanced along the way, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

Anyway such balancement most of the time doesn't act symmetrically as the transitory deficit will be overcome by low or moderate changes of direction, privileging opposite short patterns than long patterns.

More later

as.

I guess that the above WL distributions won't make many acute players to lose, factors why this should be accomplished were widely described in my pages.

Our algorithms move around a sequential multistep on/off action, always based upon a given random walk.

1) Singles vs streaks: most distributions move around one or two singled distributions, an interesting part of total shoes dealt won't provide single sequences greater than two. Anyway one/two single situations are more likely to come out clustered than isolated.

2) When a single pattern surpasses the two cutoff clustered value, at the next opportunity we'll play toward a single/double pattern happening. In case of loss we'll wait for another single to show up before betting again toward one/two singled events.

3) Any streak will belong to 2, 3, 4 or higher class, but since the higher class is somewhat restricted in its apparition, 2/3 and 3/4 classes will more likely form clustered events unless the higher streaks are intertwined by long chopping sequences.

4) No matter how streaky is the actual shoe, either we'll win at single/double single sequences or  by assessing the average streak classes clustered distribution.

5) If the shoe presents many chopping events surpassing the 1/2 cutoff value and streaks won't belong to 2s or 3s, we do not have triggers to rely upon.         
Even if this possibility is the less likely to happen,  it do need further comments.

as.

Answer: Yes.

If certain random walks will produce a slight superior number of streaky shoes than average, the single probability is somewhat slight diminished, mostly as one side could be "singled" oriented for quite long time (due to the asymmetrical issues) but the other one tends to form more streaks than average (so kind of denying a back-to-back single distribution at both sides).

Since itlr almost everything will equalize, in order to restrict at most the negative variance an important tool to take care of will be to utilize the "clustering" effect.
Meaning that slight less likely (long) chopping sequences someway must balance those more probable shoes where singles come out isolated or by couples.
So when a long chopping sequence had shown up, we should be way less interested to make a bet at the future trigger (single), on the contrary isolated and coupled singles should entice us to make  more bets. 

Here a real shoes sample where isolated and double single patterns = W (+1) VS superior single patterns = L (-3):

- LLWLW

- WWWLWW

- WWWWWWWL

- WWWWWLW

- WLLLLW

- WWWWWL

- WLLWWWL

- WLWWWWWW

- LWWLW

- WLWLW

- LLWW

- WLLWWWWW

- LWWWWWW

- WLWLLW

- WWWWWWW

- WWLWWWWW

- WWWWWWWL

- LLWWWW

- WWWW

- WWWWLWWW

- WWWWWLW

- WWLWWW

- LLWLW(-1)

- WWLLWWW

- WLWW

- WWLWLW

- WWWWWLW

- WLWWWL

- WLWWWWWW

- WLWWLWW

- WWLWWWWL

- WWWWWWWW

- LWWWWWWL

- LWWWLWWWL

- WWWWLWWWW

- WWWWWW

- LWWWWWWWW

- WLLW

- WWWWWW

- LWWWLWW

- WWWWWWWW

- LLLWWL

- WLWLWWWW

- WWLLWW

- WWWLWW

- WWWWLWW

- WWWWWL

- WLWWWLWWWW

- WWWWLWW

- LWWWWWWLWW

- WL

- W(-1)

- WLWLWL

- LWWWLW

- WWLLWWL

- WLLWW

- WWWWLW

- LLWWWWL

- WWWWWWWL

- WWWWLW

- WWWWWW

- LLW

- WLWWLWL

- WWWLW

- WLWWWWW

- LWWWWLWWW

- LLWWW

- WWWLWW

- WWWWWWLWWWW

- WWWL

- WWWLWW

- WWWWWW

- LWWWWWL

- WWLWWLWW

- WWWWWL

- WWLWWWW

- LLWWWWWL(-1)

- WWLLWL

- WWWLWLWWW

- LLWWWW

- WWWLW

- LWWWLL

- WWWWWLWWWWW

- WWWWLW

- WLWLWWW

- WWWWWWL

- WWWWWWL

- WWLWWL

- WWWWW

- WWWL

- WLLWWWW

- WWWWWWL

- LLLLL

- WWWWWLWWW

- LWWW

- WWWLLW

- WWWLWW

- WWWWL

- WWWWWW

- WWLWLL

- WWWWLWLW

- WWWWWW

- WWWWWWWW(-1)

- WWWWWLWW

- WWWWWWW

- WWWLWL

- WWWW

- WWLWLW

- WLWW

- WLWWWLWW

- WWWWLLLLW

- LLLWWLW

- WWWLWLL

- WLWWW

- WLWWLWWLW

- LLLLLWWW

- LWWWWWL

- WWWWWWL

- WWWWW

- WWWWWWW

- LWWWWW

- WWWWWW

- WLWWLWWW

- LWWLWL

- WWLWWW

- WWWWLW

- WWWW

- LWLWW

- LLLW

- WWWWL(-1)

- WWWWW

- WWWWWWLLW

- WWLLWWLWW

- LWWWWLWW

- LWWWWWLW

- LWWWWL

- LWWWWWWL

- WWWL (18632)

as.

After 5 resolved hands are dealt and assuming a perfect 50/50 A/B probability, only two hopping sequences are expected: ABABA and BABAB.
At both such successions either A and B come out clustered 'isolated', that is no streak happened at both sides.

In the remaining 30 out of 32 possibilities, A or B singled outcomes can only come out: (notice that eight patterns won't show singled A/B hands)

a) One time 12 times;

b) Two times 8 times;

c) Three times 2 times.

More specifically and considering ALL possible 32 patterns, the same A or B hand show up clustered just at six patterns (ABABA, BABAB, ABABB, BABAA, ABBAB and BAABA).

Obviously that doesn't mean that there's an advantage by betting toward a same A or B scenario to be clustered isolated, just knowing that by taking care of multiple 5 hands samples, a binomial probability produces such distributions.

Nonetheless, baccarat is not a coin flip game, any hand is not completely independent from the previous one(s) and finally one side is math more probable than the other one.
So the question is: Do we have tools to find out a possible factor capable to amplify the difficulty to get clustered isolated spots at BOTH sides?

More later

as.