Betting plan
Baccarat world is made by infinite situations that we could restrict by considering streaks.
More hands we'd try to guess lesser will be our profits, or better sayed, greater will be our losses.
There's no fkng exception about that, believe us.
Mathematicians and 'so called' gambling experts will say to us that no matter how's diluted our betting, the EV remains negative yesterday, now and in the future.
This is a complete false statement as it considers any shoe dealt springing from the same shuffling source.
We've seen that it makes quite a difference when a shoe is shuffled by a machine or manually or by "only gambling gods know" preordered shuffles.
The 'cut' made by players (when allowed) isn't a proper tool to break the shoe sequences, it just postpones them.
Hence we must be prepared to deal with sd values (at both positive and negative ways) and machine sd values are way better controllable than other shuffling procedures.
Next are manually shuffled shoes and at the bottom of the list come preordered shuffled shoes where we do not get any hint about how they were shuffled.
1) How many 5/5+ streaks are we expecting from any shoe dealt?
We strongly think that percentages presented above are accurate, we do not care less about millions of shoes dealt especially when a homogeneous source wasn't considered (so you could put in the trash every data you've collected unless coming out from the SAME source). In the same way we shouldn't give a fk about B/P long term raw percentages as sure as hell they will be approaching more and more the 0.5068/0.4932 useless ratio.
We need to assess the average streaks distribution after having devised one or more proper random walks.
After having classified every "long streak" happening as belonging to the 5/5+ category, the positional distribution of them is paramount as way more than half of the times we'll expect zero or one or two 5/5+ streaks happening along the entire shoe; obviously more such long streaks happen at the start or intermediate parts of the shoe greater will be the probability to get a shoe surpassing the inferior than three/superior than three streaks number ratio.
Remember that per every seven shoes dealt on average you'll get ZERO shoes presenting a 5/5+ streak, and at the worst situation you're almost 3:1 favorite NOT to get three or more 5/5+ streaks.
More simply, well more than half of the shoes dealt will include just one or two 5/5+ streaks whatever distributed.
Best scenarios and worst scenarios
Well, best scenarios are when zero 5/5+ streaks will happen along the entire shoe (nearly 13.8% of the times), worst scenarios are when the "four" cutoff streaks number will be reached or surpassed (say it's about a 5% value or so).
So we're nearly 2.77:1 favorite to get zero 5/5+ streaks than having four or more 5/5+ streaks at any shoe dealt.
Problems arise when we have to decide the more valuable spots to deny such possible 5/5+ streaks
We'll see this issue in a couple of days.
as.
Baccarat world is made by infinite situations that we could restrict by considering streaks.
More hands we'd try to guess lesser will be our profits, or better sayed, greater will be our losses.
There's no fkng exception about that, believe us.
Mathematicians and 'so called' gambling experts will say to us that no matter how's diluted our betting, the EV remains negative yesterday, now and in the future.
This is a complete false statement as it considers any shoe dealt springing from the same shuffling source.
We've seen that it makes quite a difference when a shoe is shuffled by a machine or manually or by "only gambling gods know" preordered shuffles.
The 'cut' made by players (when allowed) isn't a proper tool to break the shoe sequences, it just postpones them.
Hence we must be prepared to deal with sd values (at both positive and negative ways) and machine sd values are way better controllable than other shuffling procedures.
Next are manually shuffled shoes and at the bottom of the list come preordered shuffled shoes where we do not get any hint about how they were shuffled.
1) How many 5/5+ streaks are we expecting from any shoe dealt?
We strongly think that percentages presented above are accurate, we do not care less about millions of shoes dealt especially when a homogeneous source wasn't considered (so you could put in the trash every data you've collected unless coming out from the SAME source). In the same way we shouldn't give a fk about B/P long term raw percentages as sure as hell they will be approaching more and more the 0.5068/0.4932 useless ratio.
We need to assess the average streaks distribution after having devised one or more proper random walks.
After having classified every "long streak" happening as belonging to the 5/5+ category, the positional distribution of them is paramount as way more than half of the times we'll expect zero or one or two 5/5+ streaks happening along the entire shoe; obviously more such long streaks happen at the start or intermediate parts of the shoe greater will be the probability to get a shoe surpassing the inferior than three/superior than three streaks number ratio.
Remember that per every seven shoes dealt on average you'll get ZERO shoes presenting a 5/5+ streak, and at the worst situation you're almost 3:1 favorite NOT to get three or more 5/5+ streaks.
More simply, well more than half of the shoes dealt will include just one or two 5/5+ streaks whatever distributed.
Best scenarios and worst scenarios
Well, best scenarios are when zero 5/5+ streaks will happen along the entire shoe (nearly 13.8% of the times), worst scenarios are when the "four" cutoff streaks number will be reached or surpassed (say it's about a 5% value or so).
So we're nearly 2.77:1 favorite to get zero 5/5+ streaks than having four or more 5/5+ streaks at any shoe dealt.
Problems arise when we have to decide the more valuable spots to deny such possible 5/5+ streaks
We'll see this issue in a couple of days.
as.