@klw: you got a personal PM about your question 

as.

Hi KFB and klw!
Thanks again, I truly appreciate your interest!

@KFB

I've made a mistake, odds are 10.62:1 and not 11.62:1. Sorry.

"2) When in doubt or unless your strategy dictates to bet B to form or limit some patterns, do not bet a dime at Banker side as you'll be 10.62:1 underdog to cross through an asymmetrical hand favoring B).

Once I've heard a high end casino floorman whispering "as long as most bac players like to bet Banker, we'll eventually make more money than if they would prefer to bet Player".
Is this a mathematical heresy or it was just an ignorant and/or misleading thought?

Actually he was completely right and we'll see why.

1- At commission games, yes, the ROI difference between always wagering Banker vs always wagering Player is 0.18%, so itlr B is less worse than P. Not a awesome percentage to look for by any means. It would be at other constant betting games as black jack, for example, where every tiny percentage favoring players adds up.

2- Some no commission games make Player side the best bet to make: think about tables (Lucky 6) where any winning Banker hand by a 6 point is payed 1:2. At those tables, the HE is 1.46% at B side and remains 1.24% at P side.
The difference is 0.22%, now less worse at P side.   

3- Besides the "Lucky 6" tables, other no commission games make B side less disadvantaged than common commission games, think about EZ baccarat tables (HE at B bets= 1.01%) or rare tables (Holland and Spain) where B winning hands by a 5 point are payed 1:2 (HE at B bets= 0.93%).

4- Overall no commission tables where B bets are less burdened than common commission tables do entice the side bets wagering, that is those side bets 'covering' the situations where B will be payed 1:2 (F-7, for example). And we know how huge is the HE on those side bets.

But the decisive factor why, generally speaking, B bettors are more likely to lose more money than P bettors (or to win less) is because B aficionados think that the Banker advantage will be steadily distributed along each hand dealt whereas such advantage is just concentrated on very few hands. 

In fact, per every hand wagered math probability to get an asymmetrical hand favoring Banker is 8.6/91.4, a 10.62:1 ratio.
To put things on another perspective, on average it's just that whenever we'll bet Banker we'll be economically 'wrong' more than 10 times (as we'll be payed 0.95 to 1) and astoundingly right just less than one time (now getting an average potential 57.93% winning probability to rely upon).   

Think that at baccarat a huge percentage of winning hands are made of naturals and standing 7s and 6s, and those are pure symmetrical probabilities that must come out here and there, but the payment is strongly different being 1:1 at P side and 0.95:1 at B side.
It's true that at some no commission games such symmetrical possibilities are payed 1:1 no matter the side wagered, yet many strategies cannot allow to get a Banker key spot to win other than by at least a 0.95% ROI. Meaning that in the vast majority of the times we shouldn't put ourselves in the position to 'ensure' our main B bet by wagering a side bet.
This is a strong long term EV- move.

Of course there are times to bet those side bets, but we ought to do that independently of our main bet, otherwise we'll lose money itlr.

as.

Ok, now it's time to move on other games. Baccarat lacks of suspence.

as. 

Imo the clustering effect is the best tool we should exploit to beat baccarat for the relative inherent difficulty to distribute moderate or long 'hopping' opposite event sequences.
Of course longer are such more likely 'clustered' events better are our probabilities to win and possibly to win huge.
Whenever a clustered situation of fair lenght happens, we might win one unit or two coincidentally, meaning we can take triggers at different values and not necessarily by a simple 'no hopping' distribution.

An example is when 3s are silent making a single-double betting plan particularly appealing and the same is true about doubles (now singles and 3s become good triggers). At both situations very rarely winning streaks stay at a 2 minimum clustered level for long.

Anyway even taking into account the general probability things will distribute on average, very often what seems to be 'unlikely' tend to come out strongly 'clustered', meaning there's no point to 'force' general probabilities to show up as the actual card distribution denies it.
In such occurences we have to choose whether to 'chase' an unlikely world or simply wait for better opportunities (aka next shoe/s).

Mathematicians correctly state that those natural 'flows' are just a by product of math values, stressing on the unimportance of choosing triggers that might erase or invert the HE. As they simply do not exist.
But they are right only when they consider a baccarat production as completely random, at the same time not considering a kind of 'conditional probability' coming out from an actual card distribution affecting different random walks applied to the same source of results.

That's why Alrelax advices (that in no way suggests a simple trend following strategy or complicated progression schemes) take an important value.
In poorer words no one 'mechanical' system would be superior than a careful observation made at very large real live shoe samples.

How to link a 'general probability with an actual probability' strategy

Keywords are to think the game as 'probability ranges' (probably it's the same concept of Al's sections and turning points') and as defects of randomness. 

There are infinite 416 card combinations (ok, but 128 cards have the same 0 value), yet every shoe dealt in the universe will fall into more likely ranges of probability.
Now either by a general probability point of view and, more importantly, by an actual point of view (randomness flaws), any sequence will show up by a slight different degree of apparition than what expected values dictate. In a way or another, of course.
We know that when we bet B side we must get at least a 51.3% winning probability to make profitable such bets and we need just a 50.1% winning probability to get an edge over the house while betting P side.

Of course nobody is going to give a fk about those values (just hoping to win no matter what), but they should as this is the only sure factor to know whether we're really playing a EV+ game or being just temporarily lucky (or naturally 'unlucky').
That's why baccarat is the second best game casinos make more money with.

Hence patterns distribution ranges matter, there's a general probability and an actual probability to assess both getting more likely situations to show up, especially when considered by a back-to-back probability.
That is we must discard many extremely deviated situations potentially or actually coming out, unless we have reasons to ride  them.

This is a very simplified list to look for:

1) Consider baccarat ranges just in terms of 1s, 2s and 3s. An exception is displayed later.

2) When in doubt or unless your strategy dictates to bet B to form or limit some patterns, do not bet a dime at Banker side as you'll be 11.62:1 underdog to cross through an asymmetrical hand favoring B).
It's true that it's more likely to encounter long B streaks than long P streaks but itlr such attempts are worthless.

3) Besides side bets, the only edge we can rely upon to beat baccarat is exploting the 'clustering effect'.
Math 'experts' will teach us that this effect will be proportionally distributed with opposite (losing) situations but they are deadly wrong.

4) The clustering effect must be exploited either by a simple 1-level back-to-back property or by concidentally betting an already moderate or long 'same events' sequence. Of course at both scenarios the main aim to look for is just one win (what baccarat pros do).

5) Many sections of the shoe are unplayable and this doesn't necessarily mean that after a given series of unplayable sections a kind of favourable opportunites will arise.
Do not rule out the possibility that cards are so whimsically arranged to get few clustered profitable events and the idea to bet on such 'unwanted' scenarios is out of order.

6) Always take into account the doubles or 3s pace of apparition considered at various portions of the shoe and in relationship of their average final value.
Of course singles make a huge impact of such doubles or 3s gaps.

7) A corollary of the #1 point, it's a kind of another invincible plan:
Set up two different random walks (SRW) applied at streaks clusters of precise lenght.
SRW #1 bets toward doubles and triples (exact triples) clustered at a given level, so any 3+ streak is a sort of boundary.
SRW #2 bets toward exact triples and 4 streaks clustered at a given level getting as 'boundary' any 4+ streak.

Those are 0.75% probability random walks that starting at a 0 point must move toward the left (lòsing side) or toward the right (winning side) by a 3:1 W/L pace. But there's a general propensity regarding which clusters of such events we'll take as triggers. (Differently to brownian motion, for example).
And differently to the common random walk concept applied to an independent (and symmetrical) source of results, odds that any class of events will be affected by relative low dispersion values at losing side are astoundngly high and, for that matter, itlr such RWs will infinitely, albeit slowly, direct toward the positive right side.
And I'm not implying to always consider more valuable P streaks lenght to stop than B streaks lenght to stop for obvious fkng reasons.

Providing the valuable triggers to look for, such 'streaks' plans cannot be wrong by any means, mainly as it works wonderfully even at pc simulated shoes (yes, yes, yes!).
Sure, a substantial amount of patience is needed but I do not recall any long term winning player lacking this important element to succeed at games.

as.

Thank You Al!
Your post Is really good, tomorrow I'll try to make additional comments.
(Today we are too busy to destroy a fkng casino, no jokes)

as.

Nice post!

I have an idea in order to lower the unit disboursement.
Instead of using full amounts, why not adding a proportional percentage your Plan dictates?
So instead of 3, let's add a 30%,  20% for 2 and so on.
Now your bets are:
$100, $130, $120 and $160.

Imo surviving takes a primary role over the urge of winning fast.


as.

Hi klw and thanks for your interest!

Itlr and just considering infinite and simple 4-hand sequences, the probability to get a final neutral result (W=2 and L=2) will be always underdog (unfavorite) vs a kind of light (+2) or strong (+4) unbalancement happening at either W or L side.
Of course we could easily face long series of WLLLWLLLWLLL or LWWWLWWWLWWW opposite situations making difficult to grasp the final outcome knowing the quality nature of the very first result, yet a kind of 'clustering effect' must work at baccarat as key cards (and/or 'miracle' cards) cannot be distributed proportionally along any shoe dealt.
Otherwise this simple plan could beat other games as roulette, for example, where each spin is completely independent and randomly ruled.

Raising the winning probability

Say we make an infinite series of 4-bets getting an overall winning probability of 0.75% by a 1-2 unit limited progression.
Now 'breaking even' 4-hand sequences are (vig ignored for simplicity):

WWWL (+1, +1, +1, -3) = 0

WWLW  (+1, +1, -3, +1) = 0

WLWW (+1, -3, +1, +1) = 0

LWWW  (-3, +1, +1, +1) = 0.

Any other possible W/L four-hand combination makes very different final scenarios ranging from the best possible scenario being WWWW (+4) to the very 'unfortunate' situation that is a LLLL spot (-12).
Naturally the LLLL spot is three times less probable than the WWWW pattern.

In some way we know that a mechanical 4-hand W/L pace will get more probable a W clustered situation to show up at some point and of course we can't get a W cluster if the very first hand is a L.
At the same time, without considering the actual 4-hand pace, we might fall into the mistake to take any single W or, worse, any single L as a valuable trigger to consider our options. If this should be the case, the game wouldn't exist at all.

In fact any shoe we're dealing with is made by 'expected W/L ratios' and 'actual W/L ratios', and we know that utilizing a 0.75% winning probability the general ratio to look for is 3:1.
Naturally the very first hand of any new 4-hand pattern coming out will make more or less probable to get a final neutral, winning or losing sequence more likely prolonging or stopping at any level.

It's like we are fairly advantaged to guess which 'clustered form' will more likely take place along the way.

In a couple of days we'll see why.

as.

Winning and losing flows

Winning and losing successions move around precise general probabilities, that is anytime we're joining a table the probability to be 'right' or 'wrong' or 'no right no wrong' aren't placed symmetrically at each of those three scenarios.
In some sense we are destined to either win or lose, making the 'breaking even' the least scenario to happen.
We may get a better idea about that by considering a simple four-hand betting strategy that of course could be prolonged infinitely.

Within a four-hand betting, 5 patterns will get more Ws than Ls and they are (vig is ingnored for simplicity):

WWWW (+4)
WWWL (+2)
WWLW  (+2)
WLWW (+2)
LWWW (+2)

It's a 5/16 (31.25%) probability

The specular 5 losing patterns are:

LLLLL (-4)
LLLW  (-2)
LLWL (-2)
LWLL (-2)
WLLL (-2)

Again a 31.25% probability.

The remaining 6 patterns out of the possible 16 patterns, those making a 'break even' scenery are (neutral patterns):

WWLL (0)
WLWL  (0)
WLLW  (0)
LWWL  (0)
LLWW  (0)
LWLW  (0)

Therefore per every 4-hand sequence we'd attack, general probability to be ahead or behind vs breaking even is 62.5%/37.5% (odds 1.66:1).

In some way, if we were able to 'guess' whether any new 4-hand sequence will fall into the final W or L category, we might get a substantial edge over the house, at the same time knowing that a kind of back-up plan could act along the way (neutral patterns).

Moreover, we are not forced to bet all the four hands forming the final pattern and/or to bet the very first hand of the new pattern.
For example, if the first hand of the new pattern is L, we know there's only one possibility out of 8 to get a final winning pattern and 'backup' neutral patterns will be placed by a 3:5 ratio.
And the same features happen at patterns starting with a W when considering final losing patterns.

Anyway the fact that we may 'artificially' making neutral or even losing 4-hand sequences into winning ones (and vice versa) shouldn't shift the natural flow of the outcomes made of winning, losing or neutral occurences.

So far I've considered perfect 50/50 propositions, thus we may apply the same concept to a greater probability and you know what I'm referring to.

oOoOo

It's the hands not played that make you a long term winner

Even the few very talented bac players liking to bet a huge amount of hands know that when the 'environment' changes they must put a stop at their betting.
After all, less bets made=less mistakes made and no progressive plan could erase or mitigate the general EV-, especially when things seem not going in their favor.

Back again to the 4-hand sequence results.

An 8-deck shoe provides around a 16 or 17 four-hand sequences each providing final winning, losing or neutral results no matter what's the strategy employed.
Obviously a steady betting Banker strategy will get more W patterns than a steady betting Player strategy could get, anyway the ROI difference is 0.18%.
Now let's take into account how the W, L or N sequences will be distributed per every shoe, not giving a fk whether a winning or losing sequence got a relatively rare +4 or -4 units win. I mean just the quality matters.

So a first degree of 'guessing' is made upon the probability to get W, L or N events coming out clustered or not and at which degree.  So being considered by a real final quality.
Example: W, L, L, N, L, N, W, N, L, L, N, N, W, L, N, W, L.

Putting things into a W/L  'gap' concept and considering N as 'not existent' we get: 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1.

Then we could make a 'more educated' guess by knowing the first hand of the new 4-hand pattern.
If it's a L, odds that the final pattern will be a W are 1:8. And N happenings are 3:5 underdog. 
The same about a final L pattern starting with a W.

A 0.75% probability will move around the same concept but by different tools we'll see next week.

as.

Thanks KFB!!!

Quote from: KungFuBac on July 25, 2022, 05:54:34 PM

IMO even when the long singles streak shows at the start we often can get into anticipatory mode / still exploit. In other words by utilizing that as a signal as to what potentially could show next(meaning NOT singles). In my experience when we see anything to an extreme we should start looking for NOT that in the upcoming section or sections. I think most will agree its never guaranteed but the probability does indeed shift a little for events different than whatever the most recent extreme group of events.

Very true, that's why a 'too long' ONE EVENT winning streak coming out at the start of the shoe could endanger the strategy at upcoming hands.
After all we need just one 'NO single' event anticipating any long singles streak and every hand will be a winner.

In fact, let's take a 8-long singles succession:

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1  ?? (no two-events trigger)

2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1  (7 wins, 0 losses)

3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 (7 wins, 0 losses)

Anyway we should realize (and as you know very well) that rare shoes keep producing 'extremes' for quite long time, in this strategy it means 'the nemesis' may remain silent for quite long time (jackpot shoes).
And of course even the 'favourable triggers' might stay just at the 'potential' side of probability (thus erasing any jackpot opportunity).

Since we have valid reasons to think that shoes are not so 'randomly' shuffled, when in doubt it's more advisable to bet toward a thing (or things) that happened or that haven't happened for a very restricted amount of time than looking for 'potential' probabilities.
Up to a point, of course.

as.

Hi KFB!

Unb plan #1 relies upon the probability to get a fair singles vs streaks ratio along with a kind of asymmetrical streaks distribution considered within the doubles/3+ streaks range.

Simplifying, we'll set up a two events vs one strategy, where one event remains as a steady winner (singles) at the same time confiding that specific streaks (doubles or 3+ streaks) will come out clustered at least for 1 point along the way.

So if singles=1, doubles=2 and 3+s=3, we'll bet that the 1-2 or 1-3 two events will last at least one time, thus we're discarding the 2-3 or 3-2 sequences that must be attacked by another point of view.
In a word, before betting we'll wait for two such 1-2 or 1-3 events to come out at least one time, 'hoping' they'll prolong by two different levels: singles and/or the same streak (2 or 3+) happened so far.

When the number of singles is roaming around averages or slightly below averages and unless a long singles streak happened right at the start of the shoe, the number of 1 - (2-3) permutations makes this plan invincible as a possible '2/3+ streaks' hopping needs a kind of 'perfect unlikely' pace to show up. 
Naturally whenever the singles/streaks ratio happen to be moderated or strongly shifted toward the left, winning is a joke.

The opposite situations, that is shoes rich of streaks and poor of singles makes this plan less straightforward as now we ought to transfer the distribution problem from horizontal to vertical.

Of course I'm just talking about a simple 'Big Road' result succession, there's another B or P events registration taken separately (not mentioning derived roads, again splitted withing red and blue spots and so on) 

Examples.

Aria casino shoe, september 2019.

Big Road (first hand is P)
3-1-1-2-1-1-1-3-3-1-3-1-1-2-3-1-1-3-2-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-3-2-1-3-2-1-2

Unb plan #1 (1-2 and 1-3):

+ - + + + - + + + + + - - + + - + + + + + + - + + + - - - +

Now let's consider my unb plan #1 splitted into two different B and P registrations.

P= 3-1-1-1-3-3-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-3-1-2-3-1

B= 1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-3-1-2-2

Unb plan #1 applied to those two different P and B registrations (lines):

P= + + + + + + + - + + + - + - -

B= + - + + - + - + + - + + - + - +

Now I'm asking: is that shoe forming whimsical positive spots denying the natural math impact over the outcomes?
No fkng way, eventually every line got all cumulative negative amounts (plus vig).
Nonetheless, I'm certain that most acute bac players will get the best of it by selectively betting some spots.

One more shoe, now a streaks rich shoe.

Aria casino shoe, september 2019

First hand is B.

Big Road
1-2-1-2-1-3-1-2-1-3-1-3-1-3-2-1-1-2-3-3-3-3-3-2-1-3-1-3-1-2-3-...

Unb plan #1:

+ + + - + - + - + + + - + + - - + + + - -

B= + - + + + + + + +

P= - -

Notice that streaky shoes make less likely to happen symmetrical long lines at B and P lines taken from a unb plan #1 point of view.
In this shoe we had just one option to take, that is by folding most of the hands, thus betting very few spots or nothing at all.

It's true that the unlikely 3-3-3-3-3 sequence (or that P side formed all streaks and just one single) would have made many recreational players as winners, yet do not forget the word 'unlikely'.
People making a living about numbers rely upon more probable events to show up and not chasing 'miracles'.

For that matter even this shoe constitutes a wonderful opportunity to win several hands in a row, providing what to look for, now by a 'more likely propensity' to happen, already traced in my thread.
 
Good news is that whenever the 'horizontal' way seems to fail, the 'vertical' one takes a decisive long term role.
Simplyfing, streaky shoes that tend to deny a steady 'horizontal' unb plan #1 advantage, will distribute by very low variance lines, meaning that some streaks cutoff points won't follow the (unbeatable) expected values.

Back to this 'streaky' shoe.

Let's analyze more deeply the streaks nature at Big Road (number displayed is the streak exact lenght):

2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 5, 3, 2, 2, 5, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 3, 4.

If you've read my previous posts you promptly see that no hopping situation will last for long (if any), so only an id.io.t may miss what is more likely to happen at some point of the shoe.

To get a better idea of what I'm talking about, let's consider another streaky real shoe, now considering just exact streak values:

4, 4, 4, 2, 5, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3.

Notice the different cutoff points making 'clustered streak events', anyway even this shoe would be hugely beatable by other tools, so let's provide the complete shoe's texture (now streaks are considered under the 2 or 3 simplyfied form):

First hand is P.

1, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 3, (2)

Unb plan #1:

+ + + + - - + - - + + - - + + + + + + (-1)

Unb plan at P side:

- + - + + -

Unb plan at B side:

+ + + + + + + + + + (-1)

In some way we got plenty of room to spot two-step 'all-in' situations without having to wait for 'premium' poker hands.

Just out of curiosity let's see how this shoe perfroms at three derived roads (unb plan à1 dsplayed with + and - signs):

byb:

1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1.

- - + + + - + + + + + - + - + - - + + + + + - +

sr:

1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1.

+ - + + + - + - + + - + - + + + + + + + - - + +

cr:

1, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, ,2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, (2)

+ - + - + + + - + + + + + + - + (-1)

Splitting the derived roads results into blue (B) and red (R) spots:

byb:

B= 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 2, 1

unb plan #1: + + + - + + + + + - + + + -

R= 2, 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1.

unb plan #1: - + + - - + + + + +

sr:

B= 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1

unb plan #1: + - - + + + + + + + + +

R= 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 1

unb plan #1: - + + - - 

cr:

B= 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, (2)

unb plan #1: + + + + + + - (-1)

R= 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2.

unb plan #1: + + + + - + -

Finally all three derived roads considered by a succession of r and b spots:

byb:

1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1.

Unb plan #1:

- - + + + - + + + + + - + - + - - + + + + + - +

sr:

1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1.

unb plan #1:

+ - + + + - + - + + - + - + + + + + + + - - + +

cr:

1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2 (2)

unb plan #1:

+ - + + - + + + - + + + + + + - + (-1)

oOoOo

At baccarat there are no 'imperfect informations' to look for, meaning we do not need to overthink a fkng nothing.
We can't bluff of course, but we can't be bluffed either.

Therefore no game theory applies at baccarat, we're just playing a taxed game where at some points some events are more likely to appear than others.

As long as a 312 or 416 cards shoe is ready to be played and cards utilized are burnt from the play, a given number of asymmetrical patterns will take place, either for bac rules and, more importantly, for the actual card distribution.
Ignorant people (math experts first) when talking about baccarat directly fall into the Dunning-Kruger effect category.
The more they think to know about baccarat, greater it's their incompetence on the subject.

Good for us.

as.

Playing baccarat as a poker tournament


Principal target to aim for is that, generally speaking, a poker tournament needs many hours to be finished so no 'quit when you're ahead' nonsense will take place, meaning that as long as your buy-in isn't depleted you still have a chance to win it.
Hence at baccarat you must 'survive' at a given number of shoes (poker hands), hoping to bet huge at those relatively rare possible favourable opportunities coming around, at the same time folding (no betting) or wagering little when you are in doubt.
Not forgetting that nearly 90% of poker tourney players will be eliminated before getting ITM and losing their entire buy-in. 

Second important issue, imo, is that in the vast majority of the times poker players aren't obviously entitled to win many back-to-back hands, whereas at baccarat such consecutive winning hands are more likely to happen, especially and foremost when utilizing a 0.75% general probability.
This is the main factor to focus upon, as given a 'large' part of shoes played, the losing 0.25% part will take its role sooner or later.
That means to 'fold' (no betting) many hands belonging to a possible winning pattern that afterwards(!) we've found as a missed opportunity.

In poorer words, we can't set up too many 'all-in' spots within restricted terms even though they are double-step conceived as 'sh.i.t' is around every corner.

Third, at baccarat we can confide that 'good patterns' or 'bad patterns' will come out clustered and very rarely by a kind of 'hopping' long sequences.

Poker hands and baccarat patterns

Differently than poker, at baccarat we should evaluate our options by a simple level of thought: either the next hand (or two next hands) belong to a given pattern or not.
Assuming the 'two next hands' variable, either we'll be slightly right or terribly wrong.

When taking a 0.75% probability, we should know how many times on average objective patterns will come out per shoe, so possibly enlarging the probability to win some 'all-in' two-step spots.
Such bac patterns move by two different succession lines, the horizontal line (consecutive quality) and the vertical line (consecutive lenght).
Both more likely producing 'clustered' successions surpassing the least minimum amount to look for, that is 1.

So far I've described the tools to look for such clustered events, best no-brainer approach is to adopt my unb plan #1 taken as a whole or splitted into two B and P different lines.
The same about derived roads.

Unb plan #1 relies on the normal probability some singles must happen, but even though the streaks/singles ratio seems to be hugely shifted toward the left, some consecutive lenght streaks (say doubles and 3s or 3s and 4s) must come out clustered at some point.

Not mentioning the already described tool to think baccarat shoes as number successions.

Finally consider that a 0.75% probability will get rare consecutive isolated winnings greater than 2, so we have plenty of room to set up our 'all-in' two-step moves, especially when previous winning clusters were quite long.

Baccarat is a game of psoitive and negative clusters, period.

as.

Quote from: alrelax on July 13, 2022, 01:17:28 AM
As you said, "mainly as many casinos won't allow bets higher than $20.000".

For serious play, it is worth going to, Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, Illinois has between 24-30 baccarat tables and the majority are at $10.00 minimum with a max at $100,000.00.

Good to know, those are very good limits!!!!
Thanks Al!

as. 

Hi KFB!

Thanks for your words and thanks for your inputs!

Yesterday norwegian Espen Jorstad won the WSOP Main Event collecting $10 millions.
(BTW, before canceling it, someone could remember I've made a post by 'guessing' that the eventual Main event WSOP winner or runner-up would be a EU player, I've guessed right and winning some money on it).
The prestigious title from Germany went to Norway.

In an hypothetical game where a given amount of starting money can be bet by an 'all-in' and limitless procedure and by facing a kind of infinite coin flip propositions, a player would transform a $10.000 initial investment into a 1000x $10.000.000 (and more) prize by winning 10 hands in a row (1:1024 odds).

Naturally it would be a utter nonsense to compare a poker tournament having 8663 entrants with this hypothetical game, nevertheless at both scenarios the final winner would be labeled as 'particularly lucky' (and definitely skilled).
Not mentioning that maybe 70% or more percentage of WSOP Main Event entrants have no one single probability to win it. The famous 'dead money' poker pros would rely upon in order to increase their EV.   

What I wish to emphasize is the role of 'time' on both games, as WSOP Main Event winner will be awarded after 8 days of play    (each day lasting about 10 hours or so), whereas at the game prospected a super lucky person could win $10m right at the start or within a very limited amount of time. Actually we know this can't be done as this game doesn't exist in reality, mostly because no one casino in the world would accept wagers superior than maybe $500.000.

Another difference is that at poker tournaments after around 80%/90% players pool has been eliminated, every surviving player will be ITM (in the money); so freerolling for the entire enchilada by getting a small, moderate or huge profit for their initial investment.

Now, let's consider a real game where we could set up a kind of 'poker tournament philosophy', so trying to get the most value of our buy-in (tiny fraction of our bankroll). It's baccarat.

1) We could set up our goal (that is our 'first prize') by hoping that our buy-in will be transformed into 5x, 10x, 15x, 20x or more factor, always considering the possibility to quit the tourney whenever we want.
But we ought to remember that poker players making real money aim to get the final three prizes, so finishing ITM doesn't make the job.

2) It's impossible to win a poker tourney in the early-intermediate stages of it and it's very unlikely to win at baccarat the above best prizes within too short played sessions.

3) Poker tournaments make the 'surviving mood' one of the primary  tools to aim for.. At baccarat this thing is way more important as profitable patterns need some time to show up. But, differently than  poker, they'll come out.

4) At baccarat we don't have to post blinds and ante, we can 'fold' whenever we want without losing a dime, that is not playing a hand until we wish.
Moreover there are no progressive blind limits, forcing us to play or push some hands unnecessarily.

5) At baccarat we could set up many 'back-up' plays impossible to make at poker tournaments (allowed at some cash games).
I mean that after having lost a hand, we could make the same bet maybe enlarged at the very next hand or next trigger we've decided to take as 'good'.

6) To eventually win a lot of money, we must be willing to put a large part or the entire part of our stake at risk at the possible favorite opportunties, maybe by betting a two-step 1/3 then 2/3 wager.
It's a sound math move as a 0.75% probability cannot be silent for long and of course casinos are more worried about an i.di.ot betting huge few times then by facing 'wise' players betting light-moderate sums for long.

7) At baccarat we can't bluff to win, yet baccarat patterns must take a more likely line sooner or later.
It's just a matter of time (time!) that 0.75% probability events will produce univocal steady lines.

Baccarat is the second best game to play in a casino, having the least unfavourable negative edge. Featuring the luxury to bet the side we wish anytime we wish.

Next how to play a given bankroll as a poker tournament buy-in.

as.

If you are selectively betting with a 0.75% general probability, you put casinos to hope to get many clustered 0.25% situations to occur, so you don't necessarily need to get long winning clusters, just to avoid losing unlikely clustered situations.
And the best way to get rid of those situations is to put an alarm bell whenever a losing spot of such kind will come out as sh.it happens clustered.

Greater is the room consumed within a shoe to get those unlikely scenarios and lower will be the subsequent probability to win.
And higher is the hope to get such winning streaks being quite or very long and greater will be the probability to throw into the toilet a previous profit.

With some caveats.

Think to pretend to play baccarat the like a major poker tournament works.
Nobody has ever won a major poker tourney by setting up multiple bluffs (that can't double the stack in any way), actually one had won it by winning many key coin flip situations, along with many underdog spots or wonderful unlikely card distributions.

Make your $5.000 bankroll to face many 0.75 probability spots by betting whatever you wish, knowing that at baccarat some long winning streaks must happen and at the same time not fearing that your QQ or KK will be opposed to a KK or AA hand.
For most poker players, the objective is to finish ITM so after getting, say, a $7500 bankroll you'll be quite happy no matter what. Think that almost 90% of the players will abandon the tables by losing their $5k buy-in.

Of course at poker after having reached the ITM boundary, everything will be a kind of freeroll with a fair shot to get the best prizes whereas at baccarat you can risk to lose the ITM goal.
Yet at baccarat we can quit the game whenever we want not waiting to be eliminated.

On the other end and assuming a first prize of $350.000, a second prize of $210.000 and a third prize of $130.000, a bac player could choose the spots to risk his/her money by distinct fractions, mainly as many casinos won't allow bets higher than $20.000.
I mean no key 'in/out' hands work out.

Think that a poker tournament of such kind will be spread along at least a 32-35 hours of play.

Moreover your $5000 bankroll will play by a 1.06%/1.24% disadvantage but poker tournaments must overcome a well higher negative percentage at the start.

Comments

a) play baccarat only when you hope to transform your bankroll (before finishing it) into at least a 10x or 20x or more accomplishment, providing a proper amount of time employed at the tables.

b) defend your fkng bankroll at all costs, avoiding the most part of st.u.pid coin flip confrontations

c) do not be shy to bet all your money (when allowed) in some selected appropriate situations. It's the same situation poker players will do everytime but unless they hold AA (220:1 odds), such players do not know how favorite they are. Most of the times they are flipping a coin for their tournament life.

d) consider that to multiply your bankroll you have to get the best of it at some math unfavorite situations more than once (for example winning a P wager having a 4 initial point vs a 7 B point and catching as third card a 4)

e) at baccarat no need to employ ICM poker strategies as blinds/bankroll cannot affect your play in any way.

f) be patient the same way poker players are. You can't hope to win with your 2-8 the same way valuable bac patterns are not coming out so frequently, especially after having lost two or more hands in a row.

g) let casinos to lose serious money and not playing by risking a huge bankroll to win a measly amount.

h) finally it's true that at baccarat some long winning situations could happen at the start of the session making a player a huge winner (a far difference with poker tourneys),  yet those are very rare occurences and being prepared to survive a lot of hands is, imo, the viable way to get the best of baccarat.

Next week I'll make some real examples about that.

as.

Hi KFB!
Good thoughts and thanks for your examples made at real situations.

According to the scientifical paper I've provided some posts above, the only way to win at this game is to catch a kind of pattern more likely to occur at the actual shoe we're playing at.

Best but much volatile and 'brainless' approach is to hope that a given streak or series of streaks will prolong by a 'sky's the limit' feature; since at baccarat long streaks are uncommon we should discard this plan from our opportunities, after all 99% of players will mostly rely upon such rare occurence, sometimes not getting the guts to bet until the streak/s will end up.

Then there's the wide panorama of more likely occurences forming the vast majority of situations every bac player should face to cross a possible valuable pattern.

To better clarify such important issue, say we consider patterns as 1-step or 2-step W or L situations, we've seen that raising the probability from 0.5 to greater values will get a sensible impact over our long term results.

It's like we're trying to get the best of it by comparing actual statistical happenings considered in various forms as opposed as the constant math probability working for casinos.

Column key spots and row key spots


Along any shoe dealt there will be times where a kind of predominance must take a role in prolonging or stopping a column or a row. 
Math can't do anything about that, so if we're hoping that some additional rows should come out and after having examined the average lenght of previous streaks, we'll bet that back-to-back spots slowing down the natural row flow are less likely to come out.

At the same time, in the vast majority of the times, too rapid rows apparition will make more probable the 'stopping' streaks mood, always in terms of clustered or short-gapped spots.

In the vast majority of the times, those predominances move around more likely row clustered spots (codes) and same level or almost same level column situations taken at precise 'clustered' parameters.

I mean that considering both the row and the column issues by 'clustered forms' and taking into account probabilities higher than 0.5, maybe waiting for one or two fictional losing events to show up (so no need to employ a progression), the advantage a player will get over the house will be astoundingly high.

See you in a couple of days.

as.