Let's start with the assumption that by betting every hand or a lot of hands the probability to win after 3 or 4 shoes dealt is minimal.
Of course also the probability to lose all the 3 or 4 shoes is minimal.
Since it's more likely to get a final losing shoe than a winning shoe (and this fact perpetuates infinitely), it should be wise to bet only those hands that seem to get a 'clustered' winning potential.
On the other end we know that even betting every hand or plenty of hands a winning shoe will very likely come out in the same 4-shoe interval.
The 'old' worthless trick to use a strong progression in order to reverse a losing shoe into a winning shoe is the casinos' heaven as it can't be done by any means, yesterday now and in the next few years the human species is entitled to remain in this planet.
Then:
-in 100% of cases, a high frequency betting leads to get more losing shoes than winning shoes;
- there's a very high probability that after a set of 4-shoes one shoe will be a winning one even by betting every hand.
First possible countermeasure.
- Betting fewer hands. That move alone can't reverse the L/W shoes ratio, but surely will lower the HE impact. At the same time helping acute players to realize that things move around 'clusters' of more detectable lenght (see later).
Second possible countermeasure
- probability to get just one winning shoe 'no matter what' are overwhelming the remaining possible set of 4-shoe 16 combinations.
So for example after two losing shoes the probability to get at least one winning shoe in the next two shoes is greater than 25% (naturally to be really valuable our B bets must get at least a 51.3% winning probability and P bets at least a 50.1% winning probability).
The same about experiencing three straight losing shoes, the final fourth shoe will get a better than 50% probability to be a winning shoe. (And the same B 51.3%/ P 50.1% winning ratio applies).
Obviously after any winning shoe the probability to encounter another winning shoe in the 4-shoe format is reduced, actually this is the only situation where the s.tup.id 'quit when you're ahead' suggestion will be (partially) worth.
The transitory 'lead' should be assessed about how many times a given probability event failed or succeeded to reach its 'average' value (for example a 0.75/0.25 probability model should get a 3:1 winning pace to break even).
Surpassed certain values and according to the expected number of hands left, probability that the 'silent side' will get a substantial lead over the counterpart is very low.
as.
Of course also the probability to lose all the 3 or 4 shoes is minimal.
Since it's more likely to get a final losing shoe than a winning shoe (and this fact perpetuates infinitely), it should be wise to bet only those hands that seem to get a 'clustered' winning potential.
On the other end we know that even betting every hand or plenty of hands a winning shoe will very likely come out in the same 4-shoe interval.
The 'old' worthless trick to use a strong progression in order to reverse a losing shoe into a winning shoe is the casinos' heaven as it can't be done by any means, yesterday now and in the next few years the human species is entitled to remain in this planet.
Then:
-in 100% of cases, a high frequency betting leads to get more losing shoes than winning shoes;
- there's a very high probability that after a set of 4-shoes one shoe will be a winning one even by betting every hand.
First possible countermeasure.
- Betting fewer hands. That move alone can't reverse the L/W shoes ratio, but surely will lower the HE impact. At the same time helping acute players to realize that things move around 'clusters' of more detectable lenght (see later).
Second possible countermeasure
- probability to get just one winning shoe 'no matter what' are overwhelming the remaining possible set of 4-shoe 16 combinations.
So for example after two losing shoes the probability to get at least one winning shoe in the next two shoes is greater than 25% (naturally to be really valuable our B bets must get at least a 51.3% winning probability and P bets at least a 50.1% winning probability).
The same about experiencing three straight losing shoes, the final fourth shoe will get a better than 50% probability to be a winning shoe. (And the same B 51.3%/ P 50.1% winning ratio applies).
Obviously after any winning shoe the probability to encounter another winning shoe in the 4-shoe format is reduced, actually this is the only situation where the s.tup.id 'quit when you're ahead' suggestion will be (partially) worth.
The transitory 'lead' should be assessed about how many times a given probability event failed or succeeded to reach its 'average' value (for example a 0.75/0.25 probability model should get a 3:1 winning pace to break even).
Surpassed certain values and according to the expected number of hands left, probability that the 'silent side' will get a substantial lead over the counterpart is very low.
as.