Good thread!

ITLR= in the long run

BR= big road

BYB= big eye boy road

SR= small road

CR= cockroach road

BP= bead plate road

T= tie

AS= asymmetrical hand (favoring Banker side)

S= symmetrical hand (no third card affecting Banker options)

HS= high stakes

L6= Lucky 6

Monkey= any picture card or 10 card value

as.

Happy Festivities to every forum member!!!

as.

Hi KFB!!

IMO most patterns follow an average number of more likely math situations that dynamically change over the course of the actual shoe. Notice I'm not talking about REAL outcomes, just about math occurences.
So, yes, your point is well taken, imo.

Just to make a conclusive and simplified statement, shoes exhibiting strong key card concentrations (so forming long key card dilutions at the remaining segments) are by far the best shoes to play at. This has nothing to share with the appearance of long streaks or long univocal patterns just about 'peaks' and 'flat' situations.

(Actually there are evidences that strong 'balanced' key card distributions will make the player a huge favor, but since those opportunities are not coming out by a decent frequency we simply ignore them).

as.

Thanks KFB!!!
It's nice to see we have many common ideas about bac.

4) Baccarat is a game of ranges, that is about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted to mathematically provide some more likely results, so forming more likely patterns.

In probability theory and statistics basically there are three kind of probability:
a) classical, b) frequentist and c) subjective.

Subjective probability here is not of interest.

Classical probability is based on the assumption that possible events are symmetrical in their appearance, for example a dice has six possible symmetrical outcomes so the probability to toss a 5 in one attempt is 1/6 = 16.66%

Frequentist probability is based upon long observations (the longer the better) of events where either we do not know anything about the real probability of their occurrence or because we suspect 'flaws' about the classical probability values whether applicable in the field of interest.

At gambling games we can't argue about classical probability values, providing each event is independent from the previous one and the source of results is random.
In this instance we're talking about a perfect symmetry/symmetry, that is an unbeatable proposition.
(Obviously black jack constitutes an exception and in fact is beatable mathematically)

At baccarat things are much more confused even if long term values converge more and more into the old 50.68%/49.32% B/P proposition dictated by the classical probability.

Why I use the term 'confused'?
Because at bac we can't extract other 'more complex' probabilities (patterns) than B/P by simply multiplicating single probabilities in various ways (the basic operation to get many events probability by the classical point of view). For each shoe being a world apart, having its card distribution and its asymmetrical features mentioned above.
Not mentioning an almost sure unrandom card distribution happening at every shoe dealt.

Actually every baccarat shoe is a single huge 'dynamic' asymmetrical model affecting the patterns way more than what classical probability dictates, mainly as 99.9% of what may happen or not wasn't investigated by a proper procedure (fortunately totally unknown by math pundits of our a$$).

It's obvious that when taking into account long series of shoes the 'mixing of apples with oranges' factor will apply but it's altogether obvious that only a strict frequentist point of view could help us to define the boundaries of the game possibilities.
So only long term observations made at real shoes dealt (best whether coming from a univocal source) might help us to assess whether our method is really good or to be just a fluke. And in that effort the flat betting scheme is by far the best random walk to realize it. 

We could think the strong asymmetrical nature of the game (that, again, has nothing to share with the B/P ratio) as a finite succession having its peaks (strong asymmetry) and periods of relatively low deviations (false symmetry) both converging into 'more likely' or 'less likely' ranges.
Alrelax name them as 'sections'.

Naturally 'peaks' and 'flat' situations are the by product of the actual card distribution. More precisely they are in direct relationship of the key cards concentration/dilution parameter, a process completely dependent as once key cards are removed (or conversely live) in the deck patterns will be affected in some way.
Vulgarly speaking, we can't hope to get a pattern to stop when it's in the 'peak' mood but we can safely assume that a kind of 'flat' situation will happen for quite long.
In some sense, whenever we bet toward a peak raising we're simply gambling (maybe with a good cause) and whenever we bet toward more likely 'flat' patterns we're exploiting the game.

It's clear that forcing a steady state (peak or flat) to change is a strong mistake, instead we should be focused about how many times a'peak' or 'flat' state is going to change into the reversed situation after having collected a quite large of datasets. And obviously we can just estimate such processes by 'ranges'.   

5) Baccarat is a game of numbers

We can't beat baccarat by math, yet we can beat it by numbers.
A contradiction in terms isn't it?

Maybe, but as long as we were and are more right than wrong after years of playing, either we're the luckiest persons in the world or we're up on something.

Numbers can't lie, number successions can't lie either.

We'll see this decisive topic next week.

as.

BTW, some brilliant new inputs are coming out at this site and thanks to Alrelax.

Stay tuned.

as. 

Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

You already know this as it's one of my signatures.

Actually and by far baccarat is the best casino's game where 'skills' will get the player a sure indeniable edge over the house.
I mean a strong constant edge and not some fkng bighorn.sh.it coming out from counting cards (actual bj rules) or from trying to spot biased wheels (actual roulettes) or other topics raised by acute players in years.

In our scheme we concede around a 1% of 'luck' overwhelming the remaining 99% skills impact.

This statement collides strongly with the common worldwide assumption that baccarat is a game of pure luck.
Additionally we should know that even a proposition of 50% skill and 50% luck applied to a EV- game isn't beatable itlr.

How to develop a fair amount of skills in order to beat baccarat itlr

1) Taking advantage of baccarat flaws

There are two kind of baccarat flaws:

a) intrinsic flaws;

b) actual flaws.

Intrinsic flaws are related to the asymmetrical nature of the game and this asymmetry revolves around two distinct issues: B>P and the obvious asymmetrical card ranks distribution.
Since only unintelligent people could think that the former B>P factor could resolve the issue, we should assign a way stronger value at the latter factor, that is the asymmetrical card ranks distribution.
So and just to give an example, when in doubt go for a kind of 'unbalancement' card distribution and not only toward a potential but whimsical and light B math advantage.
Best bac players and all pros will equally like to wager both B and P sides, so selectively privileging card distribution (thus giving a sh.i.t about math).
Of course baccarat streaks are inferior in lenght than at perfect 50/50 independent propositions, a thing that must be always taken into account (up to a point). 

Actual flaws are related to the almost virtual impossibility to deal shoes perfect randomly shuffled.
Remember that math expected values can work just on perfect random productions, otherwise they are somewhat biased at either direction and at different paces.
So the idea that every bet we'll make is always EV- or involving the same EV value is completely wrong. Actually it will be either 'more EV-' or 'way lesser EV-' up to the point that the EV- transforms into a EV+ bet.
For example, a natural point falling at Banker side is EV- for Banker bettors as it gets a 50% probability to appear but a 0.95:1 payment.
So we have more reasons to find out the spots where a natural should fall at Player side than at Banker side. And the same is about standing points not involving a third card rule.

2) Betting frequency

Mathematically at every EV- game, the probability to be ahead by coincidence (chance) is inversely related to the number of bets placed. So less bets we place greater will be the probability to be ahead of something.
Obviously without a verified edge capable to erase and invert the HE, the diluted frequency of our betting placements won't make any sensible advantage for us. We'll lose our money just at a lower speed.

But the important corollary of a 'low betting frequency' is to have more room to estimate the actual card distribution once we had 'discarded' many worthless results along the way.

For example, the 'naturals' apparition is best assessed by 'ranges' and by its average math probability to appear and not by mere 'short term' considerations. Always in relationship of the actual shoe outcomes.

It's kind of getting advantage of things by hoping to get more results than we could before betting, now an opposite philosophy of trying to win in very short terms (at least whether considered in a common way).

3) Amount wagered

If you'd think to play baccarat with an advantage it means you can beat the house by flat betting and not by adopting progressive strategic plans.
We may concede some multilayered slight and slow progressive amounts capable to get rid of the vig, that's it.
But conversely of what many think about, baccarat is not a MM game by any means.

In order to exploit an edge the best strategy to adopt is by flat betting the maximum limit allowed at that table as variance cannot put asymmetrical unwanted situations at different bet amounts.

Variance cannot be controlled by betting amounts, for the house being wealthier than us (due to max betting limits allowed).

4) Baccarat is a game of ranges, that is about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted to mathematically provide some more likely results, so forming more likely patterns.

A topic we'll see in a couple of days.

as.

Probably one of the best post about MM ever.

Looking forward to get more on that 

as.

Beyond any reasonable doubt, if we've found ways to beat the original succession, any subsuccession derived from it will be beatable too.

If you think to find out whether your strategy or method should work, do not waste time to test innumerable shoes, just test it at some simple subsuccessions derived from the OS. Itlr the EV+ will be proportionally spread along each succession, giving a flying damn about the variance.

In fact every baccarat shoe is affected by a moderate/huge level of 'unbalancing strenght' acting at several degrees and more often than not, not related to the mere B/P results, let alone about the B/P hands gap.

Think the game about ranges and not about single hands very often confusing the entire picture.

More importantly, think about the consecutive times you'll be right or wrong, that is the  probability to get positive or negative streaks depending on which side you will wager at.

Per each shoe dealt, probability to be right or wrong doesn't relate to the precise number of winning or losing spots we had experienced in the past, otherwise the game would be astoundingly beatable.
For example, two losses in a row doesn't necessarily mean we have to stop the betting, actually many times this is the best way to go.

At the same token, the idea to restart or prolong the betting after one real or fictional win is out of order as the actual shoe could easily provide singled 'subjective' W spots intervaled by multiple L counterparts that has nothing to share with 'humanly' detectable patterns (or long term findings for that matter). Besides the intrinsec general difficulty to place chopping WL or LW results for long.

'Disorder' goes toward the house

If it's quite unlikely to get many players ahead after a tiny amount of shoes dealt (providing such players like to adopt a kind of mere 'following the shoe' strategy), it means that a sort of 'disorder' distribution is more likely to come out so eventually privileging the house.

After all, casinos fear only univocal distributions coming for long and loving the remaining more likely part.

In some sense and without complicated issues to look for, itlr the 'disorder' will overcome the 'order', actually it's the best tool why casinos will get players' money (besides the now unimportant HE).

At the end, we can conclude that baccarat is a game of huge (but controllable) disorder having some peaks of 'order' that of course could become at handy when properly taken.

Yet pros make they constant winnings by betting about a kind of more likely 'disorder' whereas recreational players must hope to get an 'order' of things coming out for quite long.

See you tomorrow.

as.

Subsuccessions

There's no shadow of doubt that a player capable to win at the original sequence should win at every other subsuccession derived from the primitive either.

Example are derived roads displayed on the screen.
And those derived successions are built by a hand by hand format (providing a fair number of initial hands).

But we could build other subsuccessions by utilizing a preordered 'place selection'. Those are subs ignoring some hands, actually hands falling in specific positions.
In this way we'll get a new sequence formed by an inferior amount of decisions that could come in handy by several factors.
A topic we've already seen in my pages.

Simplest subs to build are the 'alternate road' and the 'two-paced road'. For convenience now we'll consider those subs starting from the very first hand. Ties are ignored.

a) alternate road (AR) is made by registering hands #1, #3, #5, #7, #9 etc up to the end of the shoe.

b) two-paced road (TPR) is made by registering hands #1, #4, #7, #10, #13, #16, #19, etc up the end of the shoe.

On average and assuming 75 resolved decisions, AR will consist of 37-38 hands and TPR about 25 or so hands.

As sayed before, we won't get magic beatable patterns on those new roads (and neither worse patterns to look for), for that matter if the original sequence is really random produced every other subs will be random altogether (and vice versa).

The important consequences are an inferior number of playable spots and the possibile 'confirmation' (technically it's a wrong term) that our winning strategy working at original sequence (OS) must work at those roads too.

Thus if we think to get EV+ spots at OS, we'll get them even at AR and TPR. With the advantage of betting with a lesser frequency (along with other features).

A relative drawback of those new roads plan is that it's quite difficult to jump from table to table, an inconvenience easily avoidable by playing at some Bac Theaters (good speed, yet maximum limits relatively low there).

Since trend following strategies or other amenities like that can't work itlr, we know for sure that by ignoring the OS we won't miss anything valuable or exploitable in the long term.
The question is whether such new roads will make us more focused about the flow of the game. I'd think about an affirmative answer.

Next week more on that.

as. 

Hi KFB and thanks for your prompt and detailed answer!

Yep, I agree.
After all 'unfortunate' situations should be slight less likely than 'good' events to show up when playing with an advantage of some kind.
Otherwise it would be too easy to beat the game...

Take care!

as.

Besides math considerations (virtually for us but practictally for most players, every bet is EV-), it's more likely to NOT guess possible detectable patterns than to guess what the shoe is producing.

I mean that an 'anti pattern' strategy is more likely to come out than a 'profitable patterns' approach.
After all the game is offered just for this fact (and not by casinos exploiting a miserable 1.25% or so HE).

Notice that for 'anti pattern' strategy I do not mean to bet against long streaks or homogeneous situations, just hands that in the most bac players' minds cannot constitute a sensible option.

The reason is because players try to get hints from 'human' detectable patterns and not by following probability issues. That is by simply 'hoping' to get this and not that.

Conversely, people hoping to get something homogeneous to stop (after losing more than one hand) are making a way harsher mistake as they hope to win 1 very often risking more than 1.

Remember the old basic 'rule': an alternate WL or LW succession is slight less likely than any WW or LL sequence coming up along the way in short distance.
Again, BP chopping lines don't belong to this category as the B/P proposition isn't symmetrical for many reasons.

Sayed in another way, short betting ranges make more probable to get clusters of some kind than an alternate WL or LW line.

Therefore hoping to constantly getting Ws (human patterns) is a sure recipe for disaster.

When more and more hands are dealt, we must be prepared to lose (that is to encounter an inevitable losing sequence) that we can challenge by not betting at all (very difficult) or by just betting the 'losing' end of the things (easier to do).

Summary

- at baccarat the least likely scenario to face is a moderate-long series of WL or LW scenarios

- Outliners (strong positive or negative sd tails) constitute the best spots to bet at.

- after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 3/4 or more hands dealt, the average probability a player will be ahead is pretty slim.

- after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 3/4 or more hands dealt, the average probability a player will be ahead by taking advantage of the W and L natural tails is about 50%.

- after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 1/2 or less of hands dealt, the average edge a player will get by taking advantage of the W and L natural tails is about 12-15%.

-after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 1/10 of the hands dealt, the average edge a player will get by taking advantage of the W and L natural tails is....sky's the limit.

-after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 1/20 of the hands dealt, the average probability a player will be ahead by taking advantage of the W and L natural tails is...reaching Pluto.

The general assumption is that most of the times fluctuations should stay on the widest part of the bell curve, providing the production would be really random.
Since it's not, we have reasons to think that tails (outliners) are more likely and thicker than expected and this it's one of the many advantages we have while playing baccarat.

Obviously this is just math unsound rattlesnakeshi.t, in the meantime we collect money before they could find we're right.

as.

Hi KFB!

I agree with your conclusions, somewhat conforming with Kelly criterion.

I've mentioned 'flat betting' just as a general way to approach things as, sadly, many keep thinking that the game(s) could be beaten by progressive plans.

Besides the subtle bet/buy-in - bankroll math implications I'm not fully aware of, the main problem is that baccarat is a extremely volatile game. Sometimes our edge cannot show up for 5-6 or more shoes and we know it's way difficult to manage negative fluctuations even if we confide in a long term positive result.

For what I've grasped from your precious writings I guess you start to think to raise (minimally) your standard bet after a positive period of some lenght.
Say you're crossing an unfortunate long negative sequence just after you've raised your standard bet.
I'm asking: do you stay at that level or reverting back to an inferior step?
Or maybe by diluting more the betting frequency when in 'doubt'?

My question arises as our edge is pretty volatile and coming out only when shoes are moderately or severely 'unrandomly' shuffled. Yet we have to bet something for different reasons at many EV- spots, mostly as we have no hints to realize the level of possible unrandomness acting at that shoe.

Thanks for your answers.

as.

Casinos' advantage

First, forget the idea that casinos earn a lot of money by taking advantage of their math edge.
No one casino will accumulate huge profits at bac tables by getting a fkng 1.25% average edge, they profit a lot more than that.
Stup.id side bets? Maybe.
Improper players' money wagering? Sure as hell.

Consider that a fair coin flip succession isn't beatable by definition, we shouldn't give a flying fk if eventually we are supposed to break even.

In any fair proposition the wealthiest side will get the underdog side sooner or later.
Are we richer than casinos? No way. And even if we do are, maximum betting limits pose a real threat on such proposition. For us not for them.
Let's figure out if our bets are taxed somewhat.

Casinos perspective

Without no exception (besides when bac personnel are keen bac players too) anytime you join a table you are considered as a mere perfect stu.pi.d id.i.ot person willing to lose money. A lot of money indeed.
Most of the times they are right and whenever you are not they start to grumble.

They wish you 'good luck' when they intend to say "dude, you have no chance to win".

They are right. The most you play the more you'll lose as math edge is constantly working for them.
But there's a stronger accelerating process working for them either: raising our bets for whatever reason.
This is not about a linear relationship of the money percentage they'll entitled to win mathematically, they know we can't sustain the variance being asymmetrically placed along the way.

Heaven happens: we'll win less than the expected fair return;

Hell happens: we'll go broke.

So this fact should lure us to think what the fk we're doing when joining a bac table:

-are we really exploiting a kind of edge or we are there to just gamble?

Baccarat expectations

Mathematically speaking (so without any shadow of doubt) any possible advantage is best exploited by a strict fkng flat betting strategy and I do not stall the post to prove this by math formulas.

Remember that the best friend of gamblers is variance and the worst enemy of pros is variance.

Same issue to look for but for very different reasons.

Actually this is a strong asymmetrical proposition to look for as gamblers look for just one side of things going their way whereas pros look for two different way of things developing.
Up to a point.

Again, wisest way to ascertain that we're taking the best of things is by adopting a same betting amount, best if we're betting the maximum limit that gives us no room to be outrageously wrong or
outrageously right.

I mean that there's no way to quit a bac table as winners if we didn't catch more W spots than L spots.
People trying to convince you that a lower amount of W hands than L hands will get 'em a profit anyway are fooling you by a 1 billion accuracy.
This thing could really happen just at very short term successions, that is when the natural variance hadn't the room to show up.

Any session MUST be a winning session

This is the most important point to look for, imo.

Whereas at bj we could easily lose several sessions in a row despite a possible carefully assessed math advantage, at baccarat this thing doesn't exist at all.

Actually and providing a fair amount of shoes dealt, an acute player won't lose a dime for each session played. I mean by flat betting, of course.
If he/she is behind, it's because he/she played very bad. Cards are not the culprit of such 'misfortune'.

Profitable opportunities do not come around the corner but they'll come.
We'll see this topic in a couple of days.

as.

Hi KFB!
Very interesting points as always from your part!

About MM.

People thinking that baccarat is a sole MM game is completely wrong, imo.
If we have found an advantage, best way we'll exploit it is by flat betting as we significantly reduce the variance.

The 'limiting losing variance' cannot be profitably accomplished other than by flat betting as we can't precisely know how things will develop on this shoe or on next shoes.

A kind of MM approach is by not betting at all at some (many) situations, unless strong 'comp' related situations must be applied.

as.

 


   
 

Happy Thanksgiving!!!

as.