For sure to win itlr at baccarat we need to 'catch' the 'best' propensity coming out from the actual card distribution.
We do not need astounding propensity values to be ahead of the math negative edge, everything moves around tiny percentages that in the long run will add up.
Definitely whenever those great propensity levels come around we better take advantage of them. Yet they are not so likely to show up.

That's why statistics will help us to define the terms of intervention as huge propensity values are not coming around the corner.

A given card distribution eliciting a univocal propensity happening for the entire shoe is out of order, it's way way more probable to get several 'propensity' levels.

Card matchings forming B/P or r/b results act by several levels quite different than a 50/50 independent model.

Thus we may introduce the term of 'shoe multiple propensity levels', meaning that cards may or may not endorse the formation of some patterns.

So propensity P could be splitted into subclasses of P1, P2, P3 and so on.

Later.

as.

CONGRATULATIONS!!!

I totally support KFB idea, maybe by choosing different locations besides Vegas.

as.

Random walk steps applied to a bac card distribution

In a random and symmetrical proposition (e.g. a coin flip succession), random walk steps are undetectable by definition. Several roulette studies (ignoring zero/es) confirmed that no matter after which trigger point we'll decide to bet (example after a 3 or greater sigma happening at one side), every next spin will be 50/50.
Obviously.

At baccarat things work in a similar way only apparently.

First, the propositon is asymmetrical by the rules (B>P);

Secondly, there's a more important asymmetrical factor regarding the actual card distribution, being finite and slight dependent;

Third, we have strong reasons to think that bac shoes are not perfect randomly shuffled.

Putting things into a semplified scheme:

- Coin flip successions: symmetrical + symmetrical = symmetrical

- Bac shoe successions: asymmetrical + asymmetrical + asymmetrical = asymmetrical

Itlr both propositions will approach more and more the math expected values (50% for coin flips and 50.68%/49.32% for BP hands) but surely by different random walk steps.

Nonetheless at baccarat there are some patterns more likely to roam around the 0 point, that is getting a lesser number of bell curve thick 'tails'.
Those that can be a 'heaven' or a 'hell'.

It could be surprising that three levels of asymmetry are roaming more probably around a 0 neutral point (providing the patterns to look for), but that's it.

A possible explanation is that whereas a math asymmetry (B>P) works as a costant, the remaining two factors tend to overwhelm (or conversely to endorse) the first propensity.
In practical terms everything stands as a more likely 'clustered' probability working at different steps.

Naturally such steps are whimsically placed along shoes, anyway 'heaven' and 'hell' will get more detectable spots than an unbeatable random and independent symmetrical proposition. For their more likelihood to go toward left or right up to cutoff points and always considering a 0 'target'.

More on that next week.

as.

BTW I was not only referring to jackpot type shoes.  But, your mind cannot easily adapt to wagering for chops, 1s-2s-3s, cuts after ties and/naturals, etc., etc., if you are into strong clumping, streaks and side bets/bonuses and so on and vice versa.

Spot on!

That's why, imo, many times we shouldn't bet at all especially when losing so a possible philosophy to adopt may be:

"If I'm betting here I'm more likely to lose more than partially recovering the loss"

This is a asymmetrical situation affecting our mindset as the damage of getting one more loss is superior than the benefit of winning one single hand.

as.

I am really looking forward to play with you guys.

Btw the Kfb 'Titanic shoe' definition Is terrific!!!!

as.

My thoughts on this interesting post.

1) Correct up to a point. Very rare shoes produce what I name'em as 'jackpot' shoes.
Miracles happen the same as nightmares happen.

'Sooner or later our ship will come and when it does we better not to be at the airport ' 

Obviously I didn't use the 'jackpot' word by coincidence.
We are not there to play jackpots, but just to win. So this statement, imo, is correct. 

2) Yes, but this point needs a lot of experience to be fully understood and properly adopted.
Anyway it's a powerful weapon in our arsenal.

Nice post.

as. 

Hi KFB!
I can't agree more on your words!

If people claim to win constantly by always (or only) wagering Banker side, they should win constantly by always wagering Player side: the difference is just a miserable worse 0.18% ROI.
In fact ask them to let you know what's their Banker winning percentage: to get a long term advantage the wp must be 51.3% or higher.
At Player side it should be 50.1% or higher.

Obviously in the short term such values could be misinterpreted as a kind of 'magic skills', in reality it's just a chance factor.

Neither a statistical long term study made on the slight math propensity to get more B rich patterns than P rich patterns will help them (or anybody).

The only way to win constantly at this game is trying to catch the 'actual' card distribution features that are surely dictated by several levels of asymmetry (about this topic in general I recommend the reading of N. Taleb books).

This has almost nothing to share with common strategic lines as 'following trends', unless we have strictly determined what a 'trend' really is and what are the limits of intervention along any shoe dealt.

as.

Once you have determined the actual P drawing or P standing gaps (in relationship of their expected probability), well, sky's the limit in the sense you'll crush every live bac table in the world.
Providing to assign a proper value to the 'twilight zone', that is the events affecting the math oriented situations for actual card distributions tending to surpass given cutoff points (so 'gaps').

Most of the times the twilight zone is relatively insensitive to actual occurences deviating from the norm, yet they could get you a harsh damage at your bankroll especially when you like to place a lot of bets.

Example.

For whatever reason, you think P side will be more probable than B side. In math terms that means P side will get a standing point by a proportion greater than 40%.
You bet Player getting a standing 7. Nice job so far.
Unfortunately Banker shows a natural and you lose. Even worse is when B side has any point different than 6,7,8 and 9 and will catch as third card a card surpassing your 7.

Now, how many times such instance could happen?
Maybe once, maybe two. After this 'cutoff point' we're not interested to chase a math more likely situation as the actual card distribution put a strong stop on it.
The reason is because the number of standing 7s at P side is limited and the shoe is a finite and dependent world.

It's the same reason working at asymmetrical spots when the third card instructs the Banker to stand while Player has a winning hand.

Maybe in the future Banker will win by standing points but the asymmetrical spots are somewhat consumed as they are limited in their appearance.
With the decisive difference that P standing points get a 40% probability to happen whereas asymmetrical spots have a 8.6% probability to happen, that is 4.65 times more likely to show up.

I've been repeating this important concept many times in my pages:

To win itlr you must take the math advantaged side giving a fk about transitory results, those are there just to illude recreational players (99.9% of bac players, maybe more than that).
If you'd bet P side and P side is drawing, you know your bet is more likely to lose than win, no matter the final fkng result.
Conversely if your bet is placed at B side and Player is standing, you are losing money. 

Say that you'll bet Banker only after a single P standing (Ps) point will happen.
Since Ps < Pd (P drawing spots), you might conclude to get a kind of edge as Ps + Ps < Ps + Pd.
Unluckily, some card distributions make Ps + Ps > Ps + Pd.
So we move to the further step.

That is: Ps + Ps + Ps < Ps + Ps + Pd.

Now the likelihood to be wrong (that is to get a third Ps) is way more limited but it still happen.

No need to look further, our Ps expected propensity went wrong at two consecutive levels, no matter how were the actual results.

The reason why we stop the Pd propensity after two steps is because shoe is limited and dependent, of course we might prolong the Pd propensity up to three consecutive steps but it takes too much time to look at those occurences.

Nonetheless, Ps spots are way more likely to show up as singled or two-paced, even if real outcomes are hurting us.

Try to bet Banker after any Ps spot shows up, then after a couple of Ps spots show up.
Obviously you can't be more wrong than the expected EV-.

as.

Clusters

Say A is a betting approach toward clusters and B the 'anti clusters' counterpart.

In no way at a random production A>B, let alone B>A. In fact even an excess of anti clusters B constitutes a cluster of some kind.

Things tend to differ when we have reasons to think that the production is not really random.
Now clusters are more likely to happen, but again they could manifest by 'excesses' of A or B taken at different portions of the shoe.

The dilemma is deciding when to take the A or B route and how long.

Of course there are several 'clusters' to look for, not necessarily considered by common BP (or r/b) patterns

Example.

Whenever we bet Banker we hope Player will draw first, as B is generally advantaged no matter what.
Obviously when Player is standing, B side is underdog to win at various levels.

It could happen that a P drawing will win many hands in a row and, conversely, that a P standing will lose some hands in a row, but the rule is that situations when P draws make B advantaged and when P stands makes B underdog.

Anyway, situations when P draws may be classified under different classes (none, singled, two in a row, etc) and such feature is way unbalanced along any shoe we're playing at.
The same about P standing points (nearly 40% of total hands), now with the important factor that we'll expect a greater number of none or singled situations than clustered situations at different levels.

In reality the actual card distribution tends to deny 'expected' values up to some cutoff points.
For example, in ten hands considered, the P standing/P drawing ratio will very rarely reach the 4/6 value.

Thus we may infer that P drawing and P standing situations more likely move around 'clusters'.

That doesn't mean that guessing the P drawing or standing nature it's a condition to win, but it's a good start.
Let's name it as a 'first clustering factor' happening along any shoe dealt.

Next step (twilight zone) is to assess how many times a so called unfavorite side will win (we do not care about the times when an advantaged side will get the best of it as this is the common course of action).
Now we should assess how many third cards will make P side to win (and vice versa) and how many standing points will succumb to opposite better standing points.

We'll see that later.

as.

A succession of events will be really random whenever we can assign to it the attribute of a 'collective' (RVM), so in our example about cards employed to form a hand any 4, 5 or 6 succession happening at every shoe dealt must produce 'random' so unbeatable sequences.

4-card situations are surely symmetrical, a fair portion of 6-card situations are surely symmetrical. But 5-card events are strongly asymmetrical by definition as either for the situation or for the bac rules, one side is heavily favored to win the hand.

Now, a finite and slight dependent actual card distribution cannot be considered as an endless random production, meaning there will be spots endorsing asymmetrical spots by a value different than an expected number. In a word, 5-card situations will privilege one side or at least more likely 'ranges' of apparition. Therefore bac shoes are not a collective, then beatable.

ITLR and you can bet everything you get on your name, it's the number of 5-card situations guessed right or not that make you winners or losers, shoe per shoe.

In fact, 4-card and a huge portion of 6-card situations are symmetrical, so unbeatable by definition.
Sometimes you'll guess right and other times you'll be wrong. At the end the sum will be 0 (before vig).

Say you know for sure that the next hand will be a 5-card hand, the only situation to be hugely right or hugely wrong.
Obviously you'll be inclined to bet B as there are more winning 5-card hands at B side than P side.
True, yet a fair amount of 5-card hands go toward Player side, think about standing or natural P points or asymmetrical spots where third cards help the P with Banker standing.

Do not forget that B winning hands are payed 0.95:1 and that a fair amount of 5-card hands (nearly 40%) are strongly favorite (at various degrees) to win the P side at the start.

It's like we're playing a game where the most part of results (4-card and 6-card hands) are belonging to an undetectable world and the remaining portion (5-card hands) is splitted between B and P.
And, imo, it's just the attitude to 'guess' which side will be more kissed in such 5-card hands occurences that itlr will make us winners or losers.
The major hint to look for is, again, the 'clustering effect' as more propositions are considered at the same production, lesser is the probability to get 'equaling' results up to some cutoff points.

as.

Hi KFB!

Q: Is there anything within that most recent 6-card hand that would suggest which of the two hand totals(4 or 5) is more likely as a f(x) of that 6-card hands' makeup. I believe 5-card hand is slightly more likely itlr (can't recall the exact % but believe its ~~31%.)


6-card hands probability is 31.6%.

5-card hands probability is 30.5%

4-card hands probability is the remaining 37.8%. (ok, the total is 99.9% but it wasn't me to make the calculations) :-)

(Q1 is there an indicator suggesting a 4-card is more likely to show vs a 5-card hand next.)?


Well, there's a 7.3% general math propensity toward 4-card hands than 5-card hands formation. Obviously the main factor orienting 4-card hands is the naturals apparition (34.2% vs 3.6%).
And again more obvious is the fact that shoes rich of 8s and 9s make more probable this possibility.

(Q2: Does your logic above also suggest that a 4-card hand is similarly less probable to show Bk-to-Bk? What about 5-card hand ??)
 

Naturally it's way more likely to get a back to back 37.8% math probability (4-card hands) than a 30.5% math probability (5-card hands), anyway both fight against a greater world.

Those are just 'general' math values that must be filtered with the actual shoe conditions considered by patterns and key cards concentration/dilution.

Thus itlr even 4, 5 or 6 cards successions impact the patterns formation. We do not know which side will win but we could assess the 'ranges' of intervention.

More later

as.

I'm strongly convinced that playing toward an 'average' card distribution (or not) will get the job, yet I'm way more convinced that shoes rich of ties are unplayable (at least according to my methods).

We've made the same adjustment KFB was talking about: looking at the side (or patterns) happening most after a tie.
Unfortunately this approach didn't get us any advantage over the house (no hurt either).

Probably many ties showing up work as a kind of multiple 'resetting' patterns, so we need some more hands to detect the most likely flow of the outcomes.
But if ties gaps are short, patterns are shorter and more 'whimsical'.

Baccarat is a game of numbers, ties are not numbers. So we can occasionally afford them up to a point.

as.
 

as--Do you utilize any method to try and help guess how many cards(4,5,or 6) are more or less likely to show in next hand.


Hi KFB!

Think about probability clusters, it's quite unlikely to get a back to back 6-card hand, then it's even more unlikely to get a two cluster of 6-card hands. And so on.
Itlr 6-card hands are way more likely to come out as 'singled' patterns.

In addition, 6-card hands deny the Banker advantage unless the third card is a 6 or a 7 and B has a 6 two-card point.

Shoes rich of 6-card hands are more difficult to be detected as key cards distribution do not make their more likely job.

Of course it remains to assess which side will be more likely kissed by a math favored 2-card point.   

Take care!

as. 

QuoteHi AS -- How would you group your HO and HE patterns or am I overthinking this ?

Hi klw!

Think that at most occurences, either playing toward HO or HE very soon will get a harsh stop getting more likely deviated values at each side. (I've stressed that the HO/HE or W/L situation is the less likely option to confide at).

Casinos hope we do like a unidirectional way of thinking the game, knowing that such stops will SURELY happen along the way.

Hence, for each shoe played, there are an average number of HO and HE patterns: think that HO pattern players are going to be crushed a bit more than HE pattern players, PROVIDING the latter category is capable to find out the situations where HO patterns are more likely to stop.

Most professional bac players would bet toward HE spots, knowing that the 'sky's the limit' attitude is just for losers.
On the other end, some acute players know to stop the betting after given cutoff points are reached by HE patterns. That is not chasing 'miracles' as they do not need them.

as.

Hi KFB!

Yes, ITLR B and P will approach more and more to the 0.5068 and 0.4932 expected probability, nevertheless such feature belongs to a perfect random model that is not going to happen at most shoes dealt.
Besides natural variance happening at real random models (so getting precise sd values), we ought to understand that bac shoes are not performing random requisites by any means.
Of course and since the 'unrandom' strenght cannot be precisely assessed shoe per shoe by simple B and P measures, it's obvious that itlr the unrandom world + unrandom unrandom = random world.

Alrelax is absolutely right on that, getting the least s.h.it on long term results:

Say A is the statistical or math propensity to overcome the B opposite situation.
If the production is really random, A>B by a 1.36% gap forever and ever (considering the math B advantage).

Actually A>B only whether bac productions are really random. Since we can discard such probability, our new situation to face will be: A=B*k, where k almost always is a number different than 1, so per every shoe dealt either A is more likely to happen (k<1) than B or less likely to show up (k>1).

Practically speaking, our watchdog cannot be the sd parameter but the actual card distribution privileging some patterns than others, especially when we are able to split the entire shoe into distinct sections.

Thus there's a potential A>B plan to look for and a more important actual A>B*k situation to take advantage from.
Obviously 'k' cannot be perfect balanced along the way as shoes are not randomly produced.

Ties.

You are 1 million % correct, imo.
For the most part, bac results are formed by 4 or 5 card propositions and ties are mathematically way more likely to show up when 6 cards are employed to form hands.
It's in those 6-card instances that the 'gambling' factor will take its highest role as most of the times one side won't be so 'hugely' favored to win (for math and for bac rules) than the counterpart.

To beat this game we must 'catch up' the actual more likely card ditribution and ties tend to 'stop' patterns happening so far (number of cards employed to form hands is the answer).
I agree that playing a 'ignoring ties' strategy is a big mistake to make.

A corollary is that shoes forming a lot of 6-card results (no matter how many ties are showing up) will get us harsher situations to look for.

as.