Forget math issues, I'll try to simplify our strategical thoughts.

In our opinion easiest plan to put in action is by taking into account BR and byb roads as they are 'mutually exclusive' at 'finite' degrees, meaning that no matter how things are developing, the vast majority of the times they'll reach detectable values.

For example, a sequence as

BB
P
BB
P
BBBB
PP
B
P
B
PPP...

provides two patterns of four 1-2 sequences and at byb road the situation looks as:

bbbbb
rr
b
r
bb
rr
b
r...

A six 1-2 straight sequence.

This sequence is going to get a statistical advantage no matter when we'll decide to wager.

Now let's take a more intricated sequence as

BBB
PPPPPPP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
P
B
P
BB
P...

at byb road the sequence looks as

rr
b
rrr
bbbb
rr
bbbb
rr
bb...

Now we have a nine 1-2 straight sequence at BR and a two 1-2 sequence at byb.
In another way of considering results, first registration is affected by a very low degree of 'shifting' strenght (few 3s, many singles and doubles) and the byb presents just one single and all streaks of some lenght.

We know that an average card distribution tend to get opposite BR and BYB patterns unless long consecutive BP streaks come out and for sure itlr such streaks are affected by a mathematical and/or statistical 'bias'.

Take this very unlikely shoe's portion (yet it's a real shoe dealt at Encore casino, LV):

BBBBB
PPPP
BBBBBBBBBBBBB
PPP
BBBB
PP
BBB
PPPPPPP
BB
PPPPP
B

No one 1-2 patterns happened, just 10 consecutive streaks.

Byb looks as

rrr
b
rrr
b
rrrrrrrr
b
rr
b
rr
bb
r
b
r
bb
rr
b
rrr
b
r
b
r
b
rr
b...

From a 1-2 pattern point of view we got 1,1,11, 6,... situations. So in a way or another a kind of 'steady' situation to be exploited happened.

Now let's take a BR sequence not getting many 1-2 sequences:

BBBBBB
P
BBBB
P
BBB
P
BB
PPP
B
PPPP
BBB
P
BB...

At BR 1-2 sequences got 1,1,2,1,(-1) appearance (six 3+ streaks in twelve columns, not a likely scenario to happen)

Byb got:

bb
rr
bbb
r
bbbb
r
bbbb
rr
b
rr
bbb...

Now the 1-2 probability is 2,1,1,3.

Now let's compare the BR 1,1,2,1 (-1) sequence with the Byb 2,1, 1, 3 sequence.

Are there many BR patterns following for long the same positional Byb patterns when taking into account the simple 1-2 (single-double) plan?

Even in the worst scenarios they simply can't. And the main problem is about avoiding colliding events.

Consider this shoe's portion (just two singles and eight streaks):

BBB
P
BBBBBB
PP
BBBB
P
BB
PPPPP
BB
PPPPPPP

that is a 1,1,2  (single-double) pattern.

At byb road we'll get:

1, 6, 8.

If the game is random and hand by hand independently placed, 1s at BR (or vice versa) should be followed by 1s at BYB by a 25% probability (as superior than 1s spots take the remaining 75% part), but it's not the case.

More simply speaking, most of the times when 1-2 patterns tend to be silent for long at either BR or BYB roads, the other sequence will get plenty of valuable positive sequences up to the point that we can't be interested about the precise spot to wager at.

After all, it's very very very unlikely to get many contemporary positional 1s at both BR and BYB, we need to manually arrange cards in order to get that.

Even if 1s tend to unlikely take the same position at both roads, well 3+ streaks are not coming around so often and when they are they tend to show up clustered thus giving more room to 1-2 patterns.

as.

Hi KFB!

Bac results are mainly made by 50/50 math situations, the third card is just an 'interference' that will follow the same math expectations.
It's the third card that makes things confused or math shifted toward one side (for the rules).

If baccarat would be a mere higher 'two-initial' point proposition, the game wouldn't exist as too easily beatable.

Therefore there are two different levels to consider outcomes: one is the higher two-card point distribution and the other one is the actual results (distribution).
Of course we do not win nothing while betting the math advantaged 2-card side when the final result is opposite, nevertheless some math disadvantaged hands will come out at our favor but by a way lesser degree of appearance (not only itlr but even at short-intermediate runs).
So our plan must rely upon those math advantaged situations to succeed, at the same time giving a 'dynamic' value about those rarer spots disregarding math.
   

Cards can be shuffled by infinite ways, yet there are more likely statistical distributions happening along the way as each card has a different impact over the outcomes.
Hence 2-card initial points are following a more likely distribution made of some steps and cutoff points, naturally not happening at every shoe dealt.

Example.

Consider long streaks (say higher than 5) happening at either side.
Most of the times such streaks are neglecting a math advantage/disadvantage or acting within very restricted limits about their potential winning probability.
Think about one side getting a 6 or a 7 and the other one showing a natural and so on.
Or whenever a PPPP sequence will be prolonged (or formed) by an asymmetrical hand favoring B that went wrong so producing a PPPPP pattern.

At B side, natural 2-card math advantaged spots will mix (or not) with a finite number of asymmetrical hands favoring the same Banker side, whenever the math edge goes right we'll get a long B streak.

But in both cases such scenarios must be considered as 'erasing' spots of the natural math 2-card propensity to get this or that.

That is that 1,2,3,4... levels of statistical propensity to get 2-card higher initial points must be assessed by disregarding actual results.

I'll give you more examples later

as.

We may safely consider the 'baccarat problem' into the average probability to get two-card higher initial points as this is, by far, the main math feature affecting the final results.

How many fkng times two-card higher initial points are presenting clustered or isolated?
Surely not following a mere 50/50 independent proposition, this being typical of roulette outcomes or every other independent proposition.

Unfortunately, most bac players think baccarat as a game of outcomes and not about situations.

In addition, most of the times  long profitable spots cannot come out clustered for long, unless those 'incidental' spots that are supposed to break a flow tend to prolong a trend.

Say that three hands went 'normally' at B side, meaning that math propensity acting at those 2-card initial points went as expected (for simplicity we consider both sym and asym hands).
Now the fourth hand was as:

B (3-2)
P (7-J)

Banker draws and wins by catching a 3.

Is this hand forecasting a possible long Banker streak?

No way.

The 'flow' was interrupted by a more likely math advantaged hand, thus we should interpret this hand as a kind of new 0-point 'trigger' even though it seemed to prolong a given univocal pattern.

Now you should ask about those 'long' B or P streaks happening along the way.

Most of the times such streaks are coming out by breaking math features (or following or not them at asym hands) as the probability to get long sequences of two-card higher points at the same side is really low.
The same about getting many asym hands coming out in a row or shortly sequenced.

Since singles and doubles are the more likely occurences at baccarat, it's like that 'streaky' rich shoes are neglecting a math propensity acting at various degrees.

That's why I strongly recommend to stop the pattern classification within 1s, 2s and 3s classes.

Test your shoes and register how many two-card higher initial points will happen at the same side and how is the 'incidental' strenght acting along any shoe.
Independently of the actual results.

as.

Thanks KFB, again you've made good opinions.

About 'jackpots' (JE)

Differently to other games, baccarat presents an infinite variety of 'JE' where the 'starting event' of each class can come out or not, yet it's impossibile not to have at least a 'back to back' same result; sometimes an event will grow up to the 'jackpot' (all results are belonging to the same class or classes), other times a given event will be followed by a counter event several times, but even here we got a kind of 'hopping jackpot'.

Even though this seems an 'exoteric' way to consider things, everything derives by long samples considered by our old statistical tools that at baccarat work particularly well.

In fact jackpots can come out mainly when cards are so badly shuffled that 'incidental' events must come out in our favor despite of their unlikelihood.
No one math advantaged situation can last for long and for the entire lenght of the shoe, so even though we were to know which two initial cards are higher, we'll be destined to lose some hands.

Therefore and generally speaking, lesser is the number of hands wagered, higher will be the probability to profitably catch that 'bias' without the interference of variance.

More on that later

as. 

Hi Al, sorry I had to cancel my last post, too detailed for my colleagues taste....

I report the last part of it.


Baccarat players lose by a 5% degree for HE and the remaining 95% comes from bad betting attitude (playing too many hands, bad bet selection, improper fluctuations assessment, etc).

Betting toward a more likely scenario is a good idea when actual things seem to be restricted within 'more likely' ranges. Otherwise it's a very bad mistake as unlikely events tend to come out either clustered or very diluted.

Good plans work in the long run, therefore they can't be successful at every situation encountered.

The fact that it's very very difficult to win 3 or 4 shoes in a row means that things change in way or another, otherwise casinos would be out of business.

as.

Sorry again, hope you'll post your shoes very soon, thanks!

as

Quote from: klw on October 12, 2021, 09:13:08 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy  -- I don't want to become a pain asking lots of questions, I'm just trying to learn the game of Bacarrat. So if you want me to stop posting so as to not derail the flow of your thread , just say.

I have a question from a post of yours on March 15th. You wrote :-


" Say we have tested several shoes and the average shifting higher two-card point shows a median=3, that is 3 is the more likely shifting number between two sides (higher two-card points, not final results).
Thus we let go all inferior situations until we'll reach a shifting number of 3. "

I understand what 2 card point means and that we are measuring them rather than the final results.

1. We measure both sides independently ?
2. Can you show me an example of how you reach a shifting number of 3 ?


Cheers.

Higher two card initial points are getting a huge edge over the final outcomes, after all it's one of the main tool we should rely upon.
The average flow of the cards seem to get a cutoff point at 3 value, meaning that after a given side had reached three consecutive two-card higher points, the more likely situation will be to get a higher two-card hand on the opposite side.
Of course we must take into account some asymmetrical features favoring B side. Fortunately they don't come out very often, being their probability to happen just 8.6%.
In the short run variance will get a huge impact over the final results, itlr we are just taking casinos' money.

Anyway, yes, a progressive plan starting to work after three two-card higher points had fallen at given side and betting the opposite side will get us an edge. Be careful of ties that tend to erase such propensity.

An example is this:

B (8-4) P (3-4)

B (6-5) P (2-2)

B (6-K) P (9-J)

No matter how were the actual results, itlr the more likely hand will be B and you can shift the situations and the probability remains almost the same (as in the second hand an opposite situation will math favor the B side)

More generally speaking, any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
So we must split a shoe into 'confusing' sections mixed by a fkng easy detectable world.

To do that we must consider several different subsuccessions, four of them are directly displayed on the screen (BR, Byb, sr and cr). We can add a 2-4 pace (we are registering the hands as same, S, or opposite O, by taking into account the second to last or fourth to last hand) or by setting up a 'super cr' road that is a sequence coming out by taking into account 4 back hands instead of 3 (cr). And so on.

After years of playing and studying this game, I would recommend to mainly consider BR and Byb as they are the best and easiest indicators to look for.

For that matter, sr is the best reliable indicator to know if shoes are 6-deck or 8-deck dealt before knowing the final amount of hands, and I say that with an almost certainty.

Let math experts to state otherwise, after all they are just pure losers when talking about baccarat.

But we need real fkng shoes samples to prove or disprove that, pc simulations are toilet paper.

as. 

Thanks both KFB and klw for your interest!

I've started to write a Smoluchoswki derived strategy but I've seen it's a too complicated strategy to post here and for sure we can get the same profits by adopting easier concepts.

What I name as 'runs' is the number of same situations shifting from one state to another.
For example a BBPBPPPPPPPBBPBBBBPBP pattern is made of 9 runs.

The same about a byb sequence as bbbrrbrbrbrrrrbbbrrbrbbrrr: it contains 15 runs.

Itlr the number of runs follows the expected general probability providing a random production.

To 'bring down the house' we need to know either the general probability to work but more importantly an actual evaluation about how good or bad are shuffled the cards.

For example, it's literally impossible to get all steady states happening at a given shoe and the same is true about unsteady states.
Imo it's a strong mistake hoping to get too many steady states for long and of course is a worse mistake to get unsteady states coming out for long as cards are not randomly shuffled, thus what happened is slight more likely to come out again than to get an opposite situation.

Rain is very unlikely in Las Vegas, yet on my very first trip there I've got 5 straight raining days in a row.
After all sh.it happens in clusters.

See you tomorrow

as.

Marian von Smoluschowski was a Polish Physics Professor that made several interesting studies about Brownian motion and many other topics, including the several mentioned here 'probability after effects' (I voluntariily changed the second word with a 'events' word).
Simplifying a lot, a given independent 0-1 binomial succession having a 0.5 probability to appear (the event come out=1 or not=0) considered at different consecutive steps will form another succession by adding the previous number with the very next number, now the new succession loses the 'random' factor as some values cannot be reached.
   
Example:

B=1 and P=0

Say the original sequence looks as 1-1-1-0-1-0-0-1-0-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-0-0-1, if we want to add two consecutive 'values' we'll get:

2-2-1-1-1-0-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-1.

Naturally the value 2 may go back to 1 or remaining at 2, but it can't never directly go to 0; the same about 0: no way it can jump to 2 without before going to 1.

If the original sequence is really random and independent (and not affected by the natural asymmetry working at baccarat), the derived subsuccession (albeit being unrandom), will present 'unbeatable' values typical of a coin flip proposition.

Nonethless, a simple 'runs test' made on reliable samples will deny this possibility, in the sense that the original succession is more or less affected by a kind of unrandomness. Of course at values higher than the expected natural 'asymmetry' working at B favor.
Otherwise we're just considering 'natural' situations and not 'actual' situations.

In the above example and considering the Smoluchoswki subsuccession, we got 7 'runs' whereas at the original sequence the runs number was 12.

Now let's consider a strong polarized streaky shoe where the original sequence looks like as:

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-1-1...

the Sm. succession will be:

2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-1-2....

original sequence got 7 runs and the Sm subsequence got 12 runs.

The exact counterpart of what happened at the first shoe.

Now let's compare how many shoes will get the original/derived suuccesions getting more runs at derived roads than at original sequence.

To falsify this hypothesis let's take three different real and very polarized shoes portions:

1) 0-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-1-1-1-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1

that is a Sm derived sequence as

0-1-0-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-1-0-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2...

original sequence got 16 runs and Sm subsequence got 31 runs.

2) 1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1...

SM derived sequence is:

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1...

original sequence got 29 runs and Sm sequence just 9 runs.

3) 0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1...

original sequence got 8 runs and Sm subsequence got:

0-0-1-2-2-1-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-2-2...

15 runs.

Notice that regardless of the actual distribution,  the overall number of 'shifting' numbers at Sm subsuccessions will be superior to the number of 'same value' clusters, now matter how's the fk cards are arranged.

In the four shoe fragments displayed, and assigning a W at shifting clusters and a L at losing situations we'll get:

1- L L W L W L

2- L W L W L W L W

3- L L L W W L W L W L L

4- L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L

Notice again that Ws came out clustered just one time, so no 'positive variance' in the common intended sense had acted along the way, yet Ls are more likely to be followed by a W than by a L, another way to consider results.

Now we have the tools to set up a 'bringing down the house' strategy by adopting a careful multilayered progressive plan that makes baccarat as the best game to take casinos' money.

See you in a couple of days.

as.

Hi klw!
Your observation is a good one, imo 

Shoes are just numbers and numbers are the reflex of patterns lenght


There are innumerable possible BP (and derived sequences) combinations at baccarat, yet we could take care just of the most likely patterns coming up along the way, getting rid of the most unlikely ones.
Of course we do not know the precise numbers distribution but we know that something must happen in a way or another at different degrees of probability

For example, if we'd bet toward getting two singles in a row at the start of the shoe, we know the general probability to win is 0.25, the same about getting two doubles in a row but now we need a double to come out as the very first pattern. In the sense that after a BB or PP sequence (that is a BBP or PPB) we'll bet respectively toward another P or B then playing the opposite side to limit that consecutive second double.
Again the probability is 0.25.

When we'd consider triples, we need a triple to come out and we know that any 3+ streak belongs to this category.
Thus BBB or BBBBBBBBB, or PPP or PPPPP is a triple.
Now to get another back to back (consecutive) triple of any kind we must bet two times the same side after the triple trigger has shown up.
So after BBB(P) we'll bet two times P, or after BBBBBBBBB(P) we'll bet two times P and the same about P triples. And guess what, the probability remains 0.25.

Oppositely thinking the probability not to get two consecutive same patterns in a row is 0.75 and of course it's the same fkng general probability to get two consecutive bets winning (or losing now by a 0.25 value).

But a baccarat shoe is not a 'sky's the limit' proposition, if it were we couldn't get a single possibility to win itlr.

I mean that those probabilities are dynamically placed along each shoe either for 'natural' reasons but more importantly for other features where a possible 'bad shuffling' takes a primary role.

More on that later

as.

Hi klw and ty!

Yep. the game is quite complicated to learn (imo), patterns are important but rank cards distribution matters...
You won't find many REAL LIVE shoes samples that consider ranks; best way is to deal shoes by yourself then registering everything.

Let's go back to my unb #2.

The basic strategy is quite simple: we'll only take care of B patterns in form of singles, doubles and triples (3+s) distribution.
So we'll start the betting (better sayed, the registration) after a new B hand comes out.
People who have read that thread know that in some way B doubles clusters are considered as a constant 'enemy', so we'll classify the B1 (singles) and B3+s distribution happening along each shoe dealt in terms of 'profitable' sections.

For obvious reasons, the probability to get the whole shoe providing just 1s and 3s at B side is well higher than the probability to get only 1s and 2s, not mentioning the very distant probability to get all the shoe showing 2s and 3s without any single in between.

Mathematically speaking, B1<B2 but B2<B3, overall the 1-3 vs 2 probability is very close to the expected 0.75 value.
Hence to get a long term profitable plan either we should raise the 1 percentage or the 3+ percentage.

In some way we should evaluate how many times 'coin flip' situations must shift toward one side or the another and how huge is the actual finite asymmetrical strenght favoring B side.
Moreover we must take into account the very slight propensity to get the opposite outcome already happened (good when wagering toward B singles and bad when wagering toward B 3's).

Let's randomly take a 10-shoes sample from my live shoes datasets:

1,1,3,2,2,1,3,1,2,1,1,3,2,3,3

1,1,1,1,2,2,2,1,2,3,2,3,3,1,1,1,2,1

3,1,1,1,2,1,1,1,2,3,1,2,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,3

1,1,1,3,1,1,1,2,1,3,1,1,2,3,3,1,1

1,2,1,1,2,2,1,1,1,1,2,3,1,3,2,1,1,1,3,2,2,1,1

1,2,1,1,1,1,3,1,3,1,2,2,2,1,2,2,1,3,1,1

2,2,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,2,1,2,1,2,2,2,3,1,1,1

1,1,1,1,1,1,3,3,1,1,3,3,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,3,2,1

1,1,2,2,1,3,3,2,3,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2

3,1,2,3,3,3,1,1,2,1,2,1,2,3,1,3

Taken as 1s and 3s as wins and as 2s as losses and adopting a 1-2 mini progression (W=+1 and L= -3) we'll get an overall - 12 units loss (vig ignored for simplicity) so no short natural positive variance was involved here.

Nevertheless, a careful 'sections' W/L distribution will help us to define that an asymmetrical (yet mathematically proportional) betting made on a sure asymmetrical and dependent production cannot reach the unbeatable limits typical of pure symmetrical and independent situations.

Even at shoe #7 (10 2s and 10 1s/3s, a statistical abnormality) W streaks must come out, after all just one B 3+s streak had come out there (test your shoes and see how's unlikely is this happening).

It's like that profitable spots are surely happening along the way and of course they're not coming up when opposite situations seem to show up clustered at various degrees.

More on that next week

as.

10 shoes randomly taken and considered by 2,3 and 4s patterns.

1- 4 4 2 3 2 4 2 3 4 4 2 3 3 2 4 4
2- 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 4 2 4 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 4
3- 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4
4- 4 3 3 4 2 2 4 2 4 3 3 3 2 2
5- 4 4 2 2 4 2 3 2 4 4 4 2 2 2 4 (3)
6- 2 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 4 3 4 2
7- 2 3 2 2 4 2 33 3 3 1 1 4 2 4 2 2 4 2
8- 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 (3)
9- 3 2 4 2 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 2 4
T- 2 2 4 4 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 2 2

Notice shoes #5, #6 and #7 all present the same back to back results (in bold) in the identical five positions and I've chosen randomly ten shoes from my datasets. Moreover at shoes #6 and #7, even columns six produced another same back to back outcome.

Sh.i.t happens, we know, but crossing the probability to lose 12 bets in a row....

So let's see about the unb plan #1.2

1- L W L W L L L W W L W

2- W W L W W W W W W L W L

3- W L W W W L W W W W W W W L

4- W W W W L W

5- W W W L W L W W W W W W *

6- W L W L L W W W L L

7- W W L W L W W W W W L W W W W W W

8- W W W L W W W W W W W W *

9- L W W W W W L W L W

T- W W W W L W W W W W W W L W W W

W= 91 (+ 91 units before vig)
L= 29  (- 87 units)
*= 2  (- 2 units)

Nothing to be appalled at, yet....

as.

Quote from: klw on September 30, 2021, 02:22:05 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy  -- Great writings as usual and I am very grateful for one for all this information.

If you have the time is there any chance you could do an example of the above system so I can " get it " 100% ?

Cheers.

Hi klw and thanks!

Any shoe dealt is formed by a number combination, singles are 1, doubles are 2, etc.
In another way of thought, each shoe presents a 'general' speed having accelerating spots (singles and doubles) or slowing down spots (triples and superior streaks).
We know that the average speed is influenced most by lower classes of 'speeds' as they are the more likely occurences.
Even knowing that in the long term accelerating spots vs slowing down spots ratio will be close to 1.

Yet the speed cannot be uniform along any shoe as cards are asymmetrically placed.
Moreover, different speeds acting at different shoes and considered by multiple levels cannot get the same positional strenght for long, especially if we'd consider back to back shoes getting the same production.

Example. 4= 4 or superior streaks)

Shoe #1 (Palace Station, LV)

PPBPPBPPPBBBBBPBPPPBPPBPBBPPBBBPPPBBPPPBBPBPPPPBBBPPBBPPBPPPPPPBP

is a 2-1-2-1-3-4-1-1-3-1-2-1-1-2-2-3-3-1-3-1-3-2-1-1-4-3-2-2-2-1-4-1 number succession.

compare this shoe with the actual next shoe dealt at PS:

BBPPBBPBPPPBBPBPBBPBBBBPBBPPPPBPBPPBPPPBPPBPPBPBBBPPBBBPB

that is

2-2-2-1-1-3-2-1-1-1-2-1-4-1-2-4-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-2-3-1

Get rid of singles (1) and see what those two shoes look as after positionally coupling the patterns higher than 1: (two bets in a row after any 3 or 4 pattern coming on the first shoe)

2-2 (-1)
2-2 (-1)
3-2 (+1)
4-3 (+1)
3-2 (+1)
2-2 (-1)
2-4 (+1)
2-2 (-1)
3-4 (+1)
3-2 (+1)
3-3 (-3)
3-2 (+1)
2-2 (-1)
4-3 (+1)
3-2 (+1)
2-3 (+1)
2-x
2-x
4-x

Naturally it will be more probable to lose after any 2 spot (implying just one bet to get a W or a L) than after any 3 (two bets needed half ot the times to get a W) or 4 (two bets needed half of the times to get a W).

Since 3s and 4s are less likely to coming out clustered and since singles tend to confuse the positional back to back situations, we can safely assume that only a whimsical and very unlikely confrontation will get us many losses in a row, that is every column will get more often than not a different pattern already happened or randomly taken for that matter.

But more simply let's see the distinct 2,3 and 4 distribution on each shoe.
As explained on my unb plan #1, instead of considering 1s, 2s and 3+s now will take care of 2s, 3s and 4+s, so betting toward 2-3 and 2-4 clusters after those two distinct events happened at least one time and stopping the bet whenever 3-4 or 4-3 patterns show up.

First shoe: 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4.

Second shoe: 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 2, 3.

First shoe: L, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, L, L, W, W, L.

Second shoe: W, W, L, W, W, L, W, W, W, W, W.

Notice that the cumulative number of W and L is equal, that is 6 losses and 18 wins (minus vig).
It seems that the first betting 'comparison back to back shoe' plan would get us an edge.

So let's start a 'random' test to check out what will be the most profitable course of action to be taken.

as.

Quote from: alrelax on October 01, 2021, 12:02:24 PM
Each section must be viewed and partially wagered independently without total reliance upon the previous sections.  Unless there are long streaks and a large total unbalance of winnings hands in your current section.

That's right, yet the problem still stands when to consider the starting and ending section points.
Obviously it would be a blasphemic strategical plan to stop to bet after a single win when a long winning streak appears while we would prolong the betting after the same counterpart single loss (instead of waiting another possible favourable section).

Since any shoe dealt will present a finite number of sections, raising the theorical probability of success to values higher than 50% will help us to define better the WL 'chopping' or 'clustered' lines happening at most part of the shoes.

as.

One more randomly taken 10-shoes sample regarding 2-3 and 2-4 unb plan #1.2
(*= 1 unit losing hand, a transitory triples not getting the room to be classified)

1- W W W L L W W W W W *

2- W W W L W L W W W L W W W W

3- W W W L L L W W L W L W W W L W L

4- W W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W

5- W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W

6- W L W W W W W W W W L

7- W W W W W W W L W W W L W W W W W

8- L W W W W W W W L W W W L W W

9- W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W

10- W W W W L W L L W W L *

W= 119 , that is +119 units before vig

L= 28 plus two 1-unit losses (*) that is -86 units

In this sample I've caught a W/L ratio fairly shifted toward the left.

Now you probably should get a better idea of what 'bringing down the house' means when talking about baccarat.

as.

Thanks a lot Al!

Hi KFB!

Splitting the actual results by two bets terms in order to get a win could help us to define better what we're trying to accomplish.

Let's speak about patterns.
Say we set up our plan by first wagering toward singles: the first winning attempt is made at singles, if we win that's it. What happens next doesn't interest us, we collect the money, period.
If we lose, we'll get two same hands in a row and now we must decide if we want to bet toward doubles (betting the opposite hand) or triples (betting the same hand). This is the second part of our plan.

What's important is that this second bet cannot overcome mathematically the first losing attempt even if all second bets will win and even though the second bet is higher than the first bet (a necessary condition to get a win after two bets when the first is lost).
In fact if we knew that second attempts will get more wins than losses (or must get a kind of 'more likely' probability after a first loss), why not waiting a fictional first loss and then starting to bet?

Naturally singles fight against streaks, doubles vs triples and so on.
Therefore the only option to study is about their general distribution compared with the actual distribution.

Even though general probabilities dictate that everything is possible, heterogeneous distributions cannot happen for long along each portion of the shoe. As card ranks are asymmetrically distributed along the shoe.

Hence from one part we must spot the situations to get a first win, from the other end we must take care of the actual distribution when seems to produce 'clustering' events of different shape.
The term 'clustering' is a direct reflex of the asymmetrical cards distribution, but for the nature of the game something being surely asymmetrical seems to produce 'symmetrical' probability patterns.

For obvious reasons each shoe produces a card distribution following, itlr, the bell curve shape.

Our tests have shown that best profitable shoes are those placing themselves near the top of the bell curve or quite distant from it.
Near the top shoes are ridicously beatable, distant from the top shoes could be either a heaven or a nightmare. Of course the 'nightmare' may be transformed into a 'heaven' by adapting at most our strategy to the actual shoe.

In my unb plan #1 I've considered to register and play 1-2 and 1-3 patterns, stopping whenever a 2-3 or 3-2 pattern will come out. Thus shoes particularly rich of singles will be more likely to show up long winning clusters.
Nothing prevent us to add a superior patterns level, that is betting toward 2-3 and 2-4, now shoes particularly full of doubles will be more likely to win (now singles become not influential). Here the 3-4 or 4-3 pattern is a stopping sign.

And so on with the 3-4 and 3-6 betting plan, etc.

It's like that whenever the trigger pattern value come out combined with the next value or the +2 value will produce lines affected by low degree of variance.

Let's take randomly 10 shoes from my datasets by considering 2-3 and 2-4 patterns (say unb plan #1.2).
W= +1 unit and L= -3 units.

1- W L L W W W W W W W W L W

2- W L W W L W W W W W W L W W

3- W W W W L

4- W L W W W W  L L

5- W W W L W W W W L L W W

6- W W W W W L L W W L W W W W W

7- W W W W L W L W W W W L W

8- L W L L W W W L W

9- W L W W W W W W W W W L W L W

10- W W L W W L W W L W W L W

Total W= 87 (+ 87 before vig)
Total L= 30. (- 90)

Fortunately (lol) at this sample I didn't catch up a favourable W/L ratio, we've lost money and furthermore burdened by the vig, nonetheless (not displayed here) we've won more bets at the 2 level (that is the first step of the two-step procedure) than by backing up the first loss by a second wager.
Not mentioning that distributions of winning or losing spots could help us to choose when and how to bet.

Even not taking into account specific patterns as I did, every shoe results splitted in two betting sections are made by a number of first wins and second wins (with the same losing counterpart); in order to win itlr, we need to be more right than 50% (51.3% or more when betting B) at the very first hand wagered. Everything different from this will produce an inevitable loss and lack of control over the outcomes.

Alrelax is completely right about his 'sections' way of thinking the game.
Some sections of the shoe are playable, most part of them aren't.
I would add that some shoes are unplayable no matter what.

Finally it's interesting to note that most successful bac players rarely take a seat at the table.
They prefer to bet by standing behind other players.
They do not give a lesser s.h.i.t about the privilege of peeling cards or getting comps.
Moreover, it's easier to quit a table either as a winner or a loser by not seating at it.
If we are not seated at a table at the eyes of the personnel we simply don't exist, yet our bets are.

as.