QuoteYes, I'm slowly grasping everything Roulette-related... so much to learn!   

Let me see if I understand correctly so far...

I start off by having a good bet selection based on solid principles. These have been tested and tweaked for triggers and found to consistently win more than they lose. I use these in my strategy when "advancing into battle".

Knowing when to stop is essential to success. Whilst playing the game, money-management is the key to stop/loss. You recommend a positive progression on wins... and a maximum draw-down on losses. So we are not chasing our losses, but recouping a loss through future wins in other sessions.

Quote from: VLS- You must always apply the principle of "MAXIMUM draw-down". You must exit when your next bet makes you go lower than what you brought for a session bankroll. Example of a Max. draw-down scenario: you come to the table with 100 chips/units, are up +45 and have a total of 145 chips now and your maximum draw-down at this point is 145 - 100 = 45 locked chips/units. When working the averages this mandatory principle makes a big difference -HUGE in fact! As opposed to the gambler whose stop-loss is leaving up to the last unit/chip to the casino.

The new maximum draw-down after winning +45 is now 45?
And therefore, no bet should make you go lower than 45?
And if it would, then it is time to exit, i.e. go home?
If you end the day winning... Do you continue the positive progression into the next day?
 
- Reinvest stack. This includes the positive progression from the last winning game. If I lose a session... I start over again with minimal unit value - the minimum BR being drawn from the reserve stack?
- Reserve stack. What percentage of the daily winnings should be reserved? Lanky once wrote that when he won a certain amount... instead of going home, he would continue to play (with those winnings only) ...and was able to build several reserved banks on the side. I imagine for unlucky streaks? 
- Net wins. This is what we are all looking for... 

The ball in now in your court... opps, I mean wheel/disc...     

Laughter & Light,
Lady K

QuoteThank you Victor!

Disc-play is completely new to me, but I have noticed repeated patterns on the table that seem to vary, depending upon the particular bet one is playing.  Most systems/strategies are based on exploiting these patterns, and most (or is it all?) seem to have a positive and negative cycle.  Is there a rule of thumb that one could follow as to when these cycles "peak", in order to know when to stop? Or do these positive/negative cycles fluctuate randomly also?

Hugs,
Kathryn

Yes. Cycles can fluctuate.

Your only choice is to accommodate your unit to the lowest when losing and maximize it on concatenated wins.

It is a good idea to divide wins in 3 stacks:

- Reinvest stack.
- Reserve stack.
- Net wins.

Little by little I hope you are getting a good grasp of the "big picture".

Playing small, independent cycles, maximizing wins, minimizing losses. Compounding and keeping a reserve.

Over to you

Quote from: Lady KI would love to hear your thoughts about progressions, and whether you have a favorite?

My thoughts are: Try to avoid explosive negative progressions. The 1-hit-recoups-all type is the worst ever for the player. Martingale being the perfect example.

In fact, standard negative progressions on all locations are a form of "martingale".

So by deduction, when recommending a progressive scheme, I am a positive progression advocate. And they are what I recommend.

As for a personal favorite, the best positive progression for a session is to "compound" your units and increase your bankroll with wins to achieve win goal faster.

For instance: you start with 100 units and win +20, now you have 120 units.

You divide 120 / 100 and now your base betting unit is 1.2

You keep it at that level until you reach a new plus after a win. -Say you reach +135.

135 / 100 = 1.35 as base unit.

As base unit grows, so does your win level per spin, while at the same time maintaining the same amount of unit for your maximum draw-down.

Always round DOWN when you can't put the exact unit amount. It is recommended to have a base unit at least divisible by 10. (i.e. in a $1 dollar table, have a $0.10 chip available)

You need a decent bet selection, but this does indeed helps in achieving your win-goal faster and staying shorter at the table. Which is always a plus.


Now, that being the "favorite" in-session positive progression, my advice for real-money play is to play flat and do the progression inter-session.

I consider pulling a profit flat betting to be a more advanced way, as in actually beating the game; a flat betting advantage is one you can rely on.

Regards again,
Victor

Quote from: Ralph on January 14, 2013, 02:17:54 PM
What to call it?

It's still a positive progression to me.

i.e. +1 on a win... regardless of what happened before.

Quote from: Lady KWhat makes the difference between a pro, a semi-pro, and a regular player?

PRO = only means of living derive from gambling.

SEMI-PRO = Job + supplementing the income with gambling. Treats the game with respect and has the same professional attitude towards the game as the PRO, but keeps the job at all times in order to spare the perpetual trauma of "eating if the ball lands in the correct pocket" or "paying the rent if the cards come in a good way".

Regular player = Also known as: "Chip scatterer", "Random bettor" or leisure player. Only wagers for the sake of it. Bets birth dates, does not have any type of systematic play nor strategy (other than the last chip = stop-loss) and loves to go with lat-minute intuition, and in the end it is all random betting to the regular player, because "there is no way", "it's all luck" and "the only earning is fun"... you know the type.

99.99...% of players in a casino qualify for it, and they are the reason why the other two types of players can exist and the reason casinos can rest assured their business will never end.

Quote from: Lady KIf a person were able to win more than they lose on a regular basis.  .  .    would they be considered a semi-pro?

As long as they keep an alternate means of income, then yes.

This is the only goal I can recommend anyone to pursue. The mental stress deriving from relying 100% on gambling to eat is way too much for a regular person to take, especially if that person is the support of a family. It should be avoided at all costs. This is part of "playing responsible", and believe it or not, there is a "win responsible" too.

Even if someone is consistently winning at the casino the fact of he/she not wanting to take a regular job and therefore force the significant other and the family to the social uncertainty derived from being a PRO gambler,  can cost a person a marriage --or two ...or more! (ask Ivica/Iboba and his former 6 wives!).

Yours,
Victor

- Remember while there are common traits in what everybody experiences, gambling is still a personal experience (i.e. subject A may go his whole life without seeing a series of 10 reds, while player B can get it when in his fist betting session at the casino).

- Do not pursue a professional gambling career, at most think about it as a possible way to bring some extra-income; never something to rely on for your livelyhood.

- Again, remember there are common traits in what everybody experiences , this is what you should attempt to expoit! I recall me seeing the same patters in a roulette wheel in Venezuela and Lionel (Lanky) seeing them the same in a roulette in Australia. It just can't be any other way. These traits or constants are called "PRINCIPLES", which are applicable to the game wherever you are, whoever you are.

- Face the game in SEPARATE GAMING UNITS, namely: the cycle.

- For straight-up numbers the cycle is no longer than 37 spins. You can exit earlier than 37 spins, but it should be an ironclad rule for you to stay at most 37 spins with any given cycle.

- Your main exit point for the cycle is when you are "up", even if +1 unit up, you should cut current cycle  there and start a new one or go home. This is VITAL. Cutting while you are up is what makes a difference in between a cumulative profit at the end of the month and a broken wallet.

- On a losing cycle you must cut your game, not a single extra spin, nor a single further bet. There is no spin #38 in serious cycle play.

- You don't need to lose it all when in the casino. Coming home with half a bakroll is better than coming home with no bankroll.

- You must always apply the principle of "MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN". You must exit when your next bet makes you go lower than what you brought for a session bankroll. Example of a Max. drawdown scenario: you come to the table with 100 chips/units, are up +45 and have a total of 145 chips now and your maximum drawdown at this point is 145 - 100 = 45 locked chips/units. When working the averages this mandatory principle makes a big difference -HUGE in fact! As opposed to the gambler whose stop-loss is leaving up to the last unit/chip to the casino.

- When you lose a session, "let it be". Do not rush to the cashier to get more money in game. Casino opens tomorrow too and you can have a fresh start.

- Play online if possible. The advantages of playing at a reputable online casino from the comfort of your home outweigh the advantages of playing in a land-based casino. You don't need to carry money on you or take risks at the street. On a winning session you can take a break of a long or as little as you wish. You can switch casinos (and roulette wheels!) with a few clicks. On a losing session, you spare the losing walk home, you are already home. And most importantly, you can KEEP TRACK of the cycle without having to use pen and paper (via software) and you can thwart the human-error factor!

- In my option, a very conscious way to play is "CONTINUATION", i.e. Whatever your trigger is, you first see it in front of you (realized in your tracking sheet/program), and THEN bet for it to continue showing. It is better to stay away from sleeping events, especially when a progression is involved. Roulette is a game without theoretical limits, if you aim for repetition of what's being realized you may have a better change of catching that streak which can get you up or recover from a temporary deficit. Practical example: say you are chasing the event number showing 3 times, then you wait for a number to show 3 times and THEN hunt for other numbers to follow suit.

- Bet EVENTS based on SOLID PRINCIPLES. A solid principle is that which is universal to the game and is backed by statistics. A solid principle is that which happens at almost every cycle. Some Examples: repeats, neighbors... those are events which are proven to appear.

- Triggers are triggers only, use them to form your STRATEGY. Your strategy can be tracking plenty of triggers in order to only attack them on their most likely frequency of appearance, sustaining the bets if they are showing better than they are expected to (i.e. hot).

- For land-based casino, you WILL need to practice a lot before you can master disc-based play by manual tracking. My advice is to practice for plenty of sessions and get used to "seeing" the events. You will need to memorize the wheel at first so you can almost automatically locate last spun number and correlate it with others as quick as possible in between spins.

- Remember: The roulette wheel is a "closed universe". The wheel/disc is like a mini-universe where there is something going on always. If it isn't landing in one half, it's landing on the other. Don't discard in disc-based play you might find the consistency you need to work your events for the cycle. Study the "final picture" for a lot of 37-spin cycles, as well as how they form. Learn to spot formations and clumpings. Chances are there'll be loaded areas, you can focus in them as they develop.

- It is a good idea to have an array of disc-based events. You can look for them to realize within the cycle and hunt them for CONTINUATION. Cut the cycle when up (even +1) on a win. In the event of a loss, cut your cycle using MAXIMUM DRAW-DOWN methodology, always respecting the cycle's length. Work with the averages. Compound your wins in between winning sessions to rise your base unit. REGRESS to the very minimal unit value after a losing session, to lower the impact of concatenated losing sessions. Treat each cycle like a mini-universe, as the "GAMING UNIT" they are. Do not chase losses. Bet with a foundation of solid principles and trust your averages.

- Treat the game with respect because it is a business and an ongoing war, where no human errors can take place. Don't deviate from the session's bankroll. Be a robot at the table and detach emotionally from the game when in play.

- You are only concerned with "how much in" and "how much out" for your accounting book.

- "Bore yourself" by the natural fluctuating in your session, be indifferent when temporarily getting in the minus (knowing you played your maximum draw-down right), and have fun when leaving on a win, rushing away from the table and enjoying it with your family.

Regards,
Victor

Breaking even is very important for the savvy player.

It is inherent in every player to make the goal to have as much WON sessions as possible, but if not attainable in a certain day then BREAKING EVEN is the best stopping point.

Think of the bigger picture.

You didn't lose, so there's no negative impact in your session-to-session scorecard nor in your pocket. Your units are safe with you for a new battle.

Remember: in the monthly balance there's no difference between a unit won and a unit saved.

It is my observation anyone can handle winning times perfectly. You just sit, lay your bets and collect. Very easy!

The interesting part and what can make a big difference in your monthly balance is how to handle the hard times.

It has happened to me that after being up "half-way", at times even almost reaching my win target, then a drop comes up.

I like to apply the 10:1 reset point rule which helps in avoiding getting stuck fighting for minimal units, since it lowers the highest balance target according to the draw-down.

I also like to have a "Max. spins to achieve" rule per system.

After the previously-determined amount of spins to achieve is played, then the game changes:

- If on the plus (even +1 unit), then game ends on the spot.

- If on the negative, then the game turns into: PLAY TO BREAK EVEN.

When on this mode, the only goal is not to lose.

It is usual to see some figures according to regular study for a system. There is an average length of spins within which the sessions are cleared with a profit. After that point is surpassed, chances are that if you stay it means facing a negative session. The goal therefore is shifted to break even and getting the hell out of there ASAP when on such trams.

Also, i also like to set a 3rd mark. The "Out now" spin. When reached, regardless of the current bankroll balance, it's time to end the session.

After such "out now" point the sessions are usually doomed, so staying would be awaiting for a "Miraculous comeback", which usually doesn't happen according to study. So it's time to let go.

True the miraculous recovery could happen, but a "spins-to-win" relation for sessions shows a bell-curve shape. When the most-likely success point is gone, better to keep your units locked.

These safeguard rules come from experience. Hope they help.

Vic

On a hit, you simply "look back" in reverse until you find out which is the currently number which is unhit for the most spins.


This is your new target number.

---

I actually made some $$$ with this before putting it on the side while waiting for some numbers to "come back from bed" and become wakers on a regular basis. This method can get to require its fair dose of patience at the live wheel.

This one left a good flavor in my mouth (and units in my pockets!) but I had to let it go out of plain impatience for the sleeper part, but guess it can work for more patient fellows.

Cheers!
Vic

Bet selection:

- Track all the numbers until there is only one number unhit.

- Wait until that number is spun.

- Use that number as a target number for the parachute.

- When on the lines/quads/split, always back the location most recently spun among those containing the target number.

Progression (in risk):

36-unit parachute: http://betselection.cc/mixed/36-unit-parachute/

The complementary "Humble But Real" system is worth a read too.

Translation:

According to probability theory, a number must come once every 37 or 38 spins (on average) depending on the type of roulette. This, as we know, is virtually impossible to happen in a brief sequence of spins, therefore it's only normal that more than 1 number repeats within a sequence of 37 or 38 spins.

Likewise, we can say that beyond the existence of 2-time shows (repeats), there are 3-time shows within this brief sequence, which is absolutely normal. The abnormal would be for this not to happen.

So far, so good. Based on this principle, the Fortress is based on waiting for the numbers that repeat within a sequence and bet only on them.

You must bet straight-up only on number which have repeated once, spin after spin, until one of them repeats again and generates a positive balance in chips. Once this target win has been achieved, a new sequence is started without considering the repetition from the previous sequence.

Let's see the following example:

17, 2, 00, 29, 19, 26, 23, 24, 11, 10, 36, 35, 5, 28, 7, 28, 33, 10, 5, 13, 9, 13, 17, 19, 5, 2, 26, 16, 25, 35, 6, 35, 10, 3, 31, 36, 34, 1, 8, 4, 14, 34, 14, 36, 7, 11, 34

The first number to repeat is 28 (highlighted in red), then you start to bet on it straight-up, spin after spin. Then the following numbers repeat: 10, 5, 13, 17 and 19, then 5 repeats again (highlighted in blue).

Until then we were betting straight-up on 28, 10, 50, 13, 17 and 19. Making a general balance there's a net gain of +8 chips.

In case that the second repetition would have lasted more spins to appear, you must be careful to plan your wagered amount on each number, so the hit from the winning spin compensates the losses from the previous ones.

After the winning spin you start again from scratch in a new sequence, absolutely independent from the past one, which has its winning spin on number 34, to get a net gain of +9 chips.

Author: Claudio 03

Translation:
 
The system is simple and looks silly but anyone who has statistics could verify it.

It is the anti-game to the fortress system.

You start a series and as soon as the first numbers doubles (in average between the 8th and 10th spin) play its two neighbors, without betting the number which doubled, writing -2 if you don't hit. You keep on betting, writing -2 per spin until the second number doubles. From this point on, you play 4 units per spins; 2 neighbors from the first doubled number and 2 from the second. Keep on betting until reaching -36 chips.

If you reach -36 (in case you don't hit fast within 9 or 10 spins), start a fresh series again, waiting for the first number to double in order to repeat the operation.

If you hit, then you start again too.

In average the session with a hit should double the sessions with losses, since you would win an average of 18 chips for each 36 lost when there is no game.

The curious thing is that this mathematical relationship of 2-1 isn't like that in the reality of the game and favors us in a 3 and 4 to 1.

It looks incredible, yet when a number doubles, the ball looks for that same number again, but since the 2-shows predominate over the 3-shows by far, the neighbors of those numbers which doubled are going to come up, and what is worth is the very short term. Because of that I don't care for the game to last few spins since the roulette game is one of such very short streaks (I REPEAT, DO NOT HUNT THE REPEATING NUMBERS).

The only problem we have with this system is the "hole" which is the hot number and which is going to make us mad when it triples and the ball goes right in between the numbers we bet; but don't get nervous; in a longer space in the monthly balance, we are going to have a benefit in favor. Between 400 to 1000 chips.

Play sessions of 108 spins preferably. This should demand approximately 3 hours and a half from us.

Example:

I start the session: 4 . 10 . 5 . 28 . 17 . 10.

Number 10 doubles. I start to bet one chip on 23 and one chip on 5 (its two neighbors)

2 chips per spin.

Then it comes 25 . 36 . 7 . 4

Now 4 doubles too, then I add numbers 19 and 21. One chips on each.

The total of numbers played until now is 4 per spin. I have a count on the side that comprehends from the point I start betting 23 and 5. Each spin I miss -2 + -2 + -2 + -2 until number 4 doubles (I have -8 lost units) then I use -4 for adding to the count. When I reach -36 missing chips, I call the session as ending and start a new number series, repeating the aforementioned procedure and WITHOUT THE USE OF ANY PROGRESSION... this point is of utmost importance.

Bad days with this method are hard to find, but they are there. It would be a true shame that the cumulative earnings were taken by the casino in only one bad day just because of our stubborness of wanting to win every day.

I repeat, let's learn to accept such losses and we will learn to WIN.

Greetings

Claudio 03

This is another way to protect the bankroll. It goes like this:

For every 10 units drawdown, reset point gets decremented -1.

Example:

Using a 100-unit bank, if it happens that some bets are lost and bank gets to 90, then the reset/exit point is decremented in -1 from 100 to 99.

Shall I have a hit and get the bank to 99, then it is time to reset the "attack". This helps in preventing that for not cutting the cycle in 1 unit, it goes lost.
________________

So, considering the 100-unit bank, it goes like this:

Bank's lowest  / Drawdown / Units decremented by 10:1 rule / New reset point
90 / 10 / -1 / 99
80 / 20 / -2 / 98
70 / 30 / -3 / 97
60 / 40 / -4 / 96
50 / 50 / -5 / 95
40 / 60 / -6 / 94
30 / 70 / -7 / 93
20 / 80 / -8 / 92
10 / 90 / -9 / 91

Regards,
Victor

People usually think of positive progressions as a "Hit it big" sort of scheme, but they can also fit a recovery strategy perfectly.

Time ago I was discussing a reversed Fibonacci with fellow forumer "Toby"; he made it clear it may not be necessary to hit the table limit to get up, only to be in profit.

It is quite a valid point indeed, and one I think conscious players would eventually come to realize.

Those upward "spikes" in the bankroll balance created by the power of positive progressions, with CASINO's money, can perfectly suit a smart player's exit strategy.

I know, I know... That pesky internal gambling bug is saying: "The next bets could be the big winners" and "better to find out how much ca$h can be raked-in"... but it is up to the player to use a more conscious approach than a plain "all in" for the next spin; think along the lines of a 50% increase instead of a full, 100% all or nothing stake.

It is important to keep as well as to make.

Remember; winners know both: when to push, and when to draw.

The next time you are using a positive progression instead of going "for the win", trying to reach the stars and breaking down the house, remember this advice and go "for the recovery" instead.

Paraphrasing the words of a good ol' friend of mine: it's not what you make at the table, but what you keep to your home what adds-up.

Cheers!
Vic