Quote from: greenguy on December 30, 2016, 09:51:44 PMAre you serious?

Give the man some time

He's proven to care for BetSelection.cc and is actually fair and balanced when the crucial moment arrives.

This is a meditated decision. When weighting "alrelax" the forum character and Glen the actual man behind it, he's a winner for the long term.

A lot of activity happens behind the scenes in the forum, he has already steered moderating decisions in the past proving him capable of exercising good judgement when dealing with posters.

There's a peer-reviewable moderation log, so it isn't like any one of our moderating crew can get away with something. It's all logged. Also, we discuss moderating decisions at the moderators' lounge permanently.

Focus on his posts here; we are confident he's not a troll: http://betselection.cc/profile/?area=showposts;u=924

Add the private layer and you have someone who can make it as a good moderator

Let's let time be the judge.

Fellow member alrelax joins our crew today as a new moderator to assist us in making our BetSelection space a moderated, warm & cozy community.

With this addition, our staff to enter 2017 is comprised by (in alphabetical order):

- ADulay
- alrelax
- esoito
and yours truly.

Welcome Glen!

Quote from: Nathan Detroit5 on December 29, 2016, 04:59:48 PM
Wishing  all of you a very Happy , Healthy, and a Prosperous  New Year.

Joining here to the New Year's best wishes:

May our fine fellow members & visitors have a prosperous 2017 with many successes crystallizing in the journey.

This is a wonderful time to look back to learn as well as to take a breath while looking forward, being inspired to achieve.

Vic

Thanks for being around either by browsing or as an active part of our BetSelection community.

May this Christmas be a time of immense Joy for you and yours

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A very grateful & wishing you the best to close this 2016,

Vic

Here’s a phenomenon that is recurrently brought to my attention: game paralysis.

It happens when a player simply doesn’t know what to play. There are countless methods and ways to tackle a game as versatile as Roulette.

Some players approach me asking about what should they bet next. I have found my way by using multiple triggers + filters applied on a sequential timeline so this is precisely what I talk about with them. It doesn’t necessarily means it is the ultimate way, nor does it mean I am claiming to have the game beat to infinity. It simply means it is MY way of tackling the game and I’m happy with it.

So, I tend to offer folks advise on how to create a timeline, calculate L’s and w’s per cycle and similar topics. But having a plurality of options is good, therefore I also advise the fellows to have a look around, accordingly. You must learn to value other people's approaches too. Nobody has the absolute truth.

If you personally suffer from not knowing what to bet right now, take your time. It is healthy to go back to the game simulator while taking a look around in order to determine your actual personal numerical coverage (and risk) level.

Reduce locations to single numbers for calculating.

Carve this in your brain & remember: you must measure by the cycle, not by the spin.

For instance; in your personal betting ledger a loss on a dozen should be checked after LLL, not after a single L. Same goes throughout the game.

Even chance: 2 spins.
Dozen: 3 spins.
Double-street: 6 spins.
Corner/quad: 9 spins
Street: 12 spins.
Split: 18 spins.

Formula being 36 / <numerical coverage>.

The payout in units is used since we are tracking effectivity within our parameters; as players are being paid 36 units on a hit that's what we use to track and base our cycles on.

36 / 18 numbers on the even chance = 2 spins per cycle.
36 / 3 numbers on the single street = 12 spins per cycle.

This formula remains the same no matter the current bet, including any numerical coverage resulting from overlapping locations. Everything by the cycle.

...Once you go past the “must win every spin” mentality, you really see the game with an improved set of eyes.

It makes a world of difference when choosing what to bet and defining your comfort level.

It makes you comfortable with betting, say, a single street and not hitting 24 spins when you know it is the same as betting the even chances and skipping 4 spins. It happens regularly so there’s nothing to fear.

The total unit exposure per spin matters too. While you are exposing less you are saving. Not betting is as important as betting hence having a filter refining the amount of numbers is as important as the trigger adding them.

You comfort level should be determined exactly by what you are willing to risk in full per attack bankroll. If you start a game with a 100-unit bank, then you have to be willing to risk the 100 units at all times, knowing you have done your homework and set your bankroll units to an amount that gives you a fair chance of succeeding in the session, without getting stubborn trying to overcome all the “random walk” extremes, since it is precisely this mentality the one that -more often than not- burns the other players.

Also, you must have a mechanism for maximizing the impact of your positive streaks to its fullest extent. This means reinvesting a % of your rolling earnings (while locking the rest safely).

You need to use a sound inter-session money management. At least something that divides your lifetime bankroll into smaller chunks and gives you a clear answer on how much to keep for yourself, how much to re-invest and how much to save towards increasing the “cushion” between you and the casino.

Don’t forget having your stop-loss calculated from the current bankroll peak, based on the net amount of units (i.e. next bet would wipe your 100-unit bank, measured from highest bankroll level = time to stop).

A unit won is a unit locked. Your Money Management should account for this.

It is better to be cautious by risking multiple “mini-banks” with minimal unit value with the aim of letting them grow in the positive trams rather than starting with a larger unit. If your methodology is sound, this should be the right approach as it gets the unit growing/rising naturally on the positive trams while keeping it at the minimum value when “it’s raining cats and dogs”, so to speak, when in the concatenated negative trams.

This way you bet at the very minimum level while passing the storm.

When things are shiny being "your time" in the positive -and very positive!- trams, then the more you win and re-invest the more you actual betting unit grows, and the more your net value in actual collected money per successful attack increases.

Having a fluid unit value is one of your player’s advantages so you must use it.

Always looking at the session bankroll and keeping track of everything as you worked it out already. Laying a bet is the final result of your personal journey to get there. Studying and testing is certainly part of this quest.

After all things have been said and done, gambling is -for most players- a single-person sport. Even when using automated bots, it is you who remain at the helm overseeing the operation.

In a sense, having a dose of game paralysis is good, because it gives you time to ponder about the ways to bet you may find around, evaluate them, and then -after doing this process- picking the one that suits you.

Even if you are currently experiencing this stage, as long as you are checking-out new bets, keeping yourself in the loop and studying, you are never truly paralysed

Vic

After all these years, the only thing that matters is what YOU have obtained out of the forums (that's plural, forums).

Have you improved your game thanks to your forum reading and interactions? Are you winning more and losing less? This is what really matters.

Do not get carried away by the small stuff. Focus on improving your game.

Vic

Quote from: greenguy on October 31, 2016, 08:46:11 AM
Thanks for the explanation Vic.

I appreciate it, and I'm sure others do too.

My pleasure. We are collecting 1-number money management schemes. Tdeas may be adapted to others' personal coverage for sure.

Widening your MM arsenal never hurts

Quote from: VLS on October 29, 2016, 01:16:34 PM1st, production:

Say you have a standard 1-number negative [...]

This is a BETTING FRAMEWORK, hence it doesn't need to be strictly a standard negative progression on the 1st stage. It can be a cancellation or a limited parlay or anything that gives you sets of sufficient concatenated winning cycles, alternating with concentrations of losing ones as a regular distribution.

We are discussing this under this one-number thread because it is ripe to provide this clustering scenario.

It's actually a no-brainer when you look at it in hindsight. If you chart your bets in a time-line and notice your bets usually clump when winning and usually clump when losing then your most conscious money-management scheme gets to be betting more to maximize earnings in your winning trams while reducing your unit drastically to give back the minimum when in the losing tram.

Compounding takes care of this naturally. When your losses clump, the base unit flat-lines at the very minimum: there's simply nothing to compound there; on the other hand, when you wins clump the re-investing of units into the main/attacking bankroll makes it rise automatically. No stop-win when re-investing, so you always enjoy the true maximum potential of profits/wins when it's "your time" thanks to the continuous % re-investment.

While the percentage stays the same, with every new concatenated cycle, the actual value of the units being being re-invested increases. This drives things in order to create the "winning more when winning, losing less when losing" duality or effect.

It can place yourself in a better position of having a shot in the game than the traditional "always flat-line the same unit when winning, lose everything and the kitchen sink when losses concatenate". (One may argue if that's how casinos actually love people to play... -for a reason-)

Quote from: greenguy on October 29, 2016, 08:33:20 AMCould you give a brief or simplistic practical example?

Sure.

What I mean is you use the percentile rank that covers a fair chunk of your tests (for your particular method) in order to calculate where to cap the negative progression that you'll use to compound.

It is a 2-stage MM.

1st, production:

Say you have a standard 1-number negative; you determine 3 cycles cover a proper percentile of your personal sessions. Then you choose to use a regular negative progression for one number for 111 spins. This is what you use for your production-stage "attacks".

2nd, compounding:

When you hit, you reinvest a percentage of you net gain into the progression bankroll to rise the unit.

Since you are covering a reasonable percentile as per your personal trials, you can expect long stretches of compounding cycles.

This way you win more when there are long stretches of successful attacks, thanks to the engorged unit, and lose minimal/base units at those times when TSHTF as the attacks fail closely, which is what wipes most progression users. Regular progression players experience the multiple bankroll busts in a short stretch together while always making the same minimal units all the time, wasting the true earning potential of those long positive stretches.

The concept is rather easy: you compound/increase your base unit after every progression hit (successful attack) to make the most of the positive runs, while giving minimal-units when things are the most-stormy (the concatenated busts).

You go by the "Win more when winning, lose less when losing" motto.

BTW, there is no "recovery mode". Under this framework losses are intended to be absorbed naturally by engorged-unit wins, hence the importance of setting the "sweet spot to cap" by means of your personal trials.

Quote from: VLS on October 10, 2016, 06:39:20 PMI've learned the hard way you must not try to recover with negative progressions, not even soft ones.

In my humble opinion, the only way or room there is to use negative progressions would be as part of a hybrid compounding scheme, where you use the negative progression as a production unit.

For instance, say your system has a percentile distribution where it does large stretches without skipping 3 consecutive cycles, you can use your negative progression covering such 3 common cycles, always as a means of compounding in production, never as a means of trying to recoup.

A capped negative progression covering the most common percentile point can help in a hybrid MM scheme that compounds (mandatory in this framework), by being part of a bigger conscious strategy.

(We all know what happens when players do uncapped negative progressions as their only recovery means...)

Quote from: System Gambler on October 18, 2016, 02:53:02 PMGoal finally reached!!

Congrats on the win SG!!

That was a successful grind that will certainly make the community happy We all love to witness positive events like this.

BTW, please check your PM's; there's a special request since you have the casino + video-capture setup in place already.

Cheers & best wishes for your success in the future,

Vic

@alrelax

Hello Glen, the solution is to give everyone their own forum where they set the pace AND -at the same time- tightening our rules to discuss here, moving any non-gambling (off-topic) post to the BetForum.cc site where each poster decides what to do with their posts.

This way we honour members' freedom of speech & keep the BetSelection forum quite focused / on topic.

As an immediate measure, we're launching the Roulette Betting Tool to gather initial sponsorship right away (asap).

The sponsored hours are then used for coding our custom "BetWeb" (forum software) to power the new multi-forum.

It all depends on the community. As the paid Betting Tool gathers community support, our free software and multi-forum proposition are going to enjoy completion.

It is an interesting time to be around. Both for the staff as well as for fellow members. The custom engine makes things better for both sides of the spectrum.

We re-launch using it during the next couple months, just can't pinpoint a certain day; the speed of development depends entirely on how much support we gather.

---

Many thanks for caring and being around

Creating something new can look like a burden, but our community deserves to be top-notch.

(Times evolve hence we move with them)

Vic

Thank you guys, and remember: we're still building! Our aim is to be 3/3:

• A common forum devoted to bet selection alone.
• A multi-forum where every person sets the rules for his/her space.
• Software devoted to the public domain.

Right now we are reaching 2/3 with our free programs (still one out)...

May this birthday mark 2016 to be the year of glory for us to reach completion.

We'll get there with everyone's support for as a community we roll

BetSelection for the win!!

Cheers & many thanks for being around.

Here's to a strong new year for everyone:

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Vic

OK, I can make it a module for BetSoftware, as we are re-launching it.

We need to set one more thing:

1) Do you want to clear all losses on three consecutive strikes, i.e. LLLLLLLLLwww (parlay)

OR

2) Non-consecutive wins, such as: LLwLLLLLwLLw (cancellation of losses in parts)

Jule, welcome to the forum.

Do you want a dynamic progression calculator for 3 wins in a row? A cancellation?

(Please bear in mind 12 numbers pay 2 to 1)

Regards.