« on: July 06, 2020, 11:15:38 pm »
At this point it should be clear that our long term results are in direct relationship between the different EVs working on those two very diverse situations.
Many craps players like to place odds at pass lines or don't pass lines after the point is established. Normally the HE is never zero, say very close to zero but never zero.
At baccarat we've seen that as long as no asym hands will be formed, wagering Player side is a way better option than betting Banker as the payment is 1:1 and not 0.95:1.
That means that on symmetrical hands virtually no card distributions could alter significantly the Banker negative EV.
Reasoning in this way we could build a result plan just on the very first four cards dealt.
As long as Player draws and Banker do not show a 5, 4 or a 3, we are really in good shape when betting Player.
Conversely, this is the exact situation we want to look for when wagering Banker.
Going to less likely situations, we see that any standing/natural situation can only advantage Player side itlr, even if in that shoe any Player 7 point will lose everytime to a Banker natural.
No asym hand = no Banker party!
What's the real probability to get the Player drawing/ Banker 5,4 or 3 initial point situation?
Meaning that 87.05% of the times our Banker bets are long term losers.
And of course that 12.95% of the times are huge long term winners.
It could happen that some shoes are so badly shuffled that the asym formation would be more or less likely in many portions of the shoe, we can take into account the consecutiveness of the asym apparition, the quality of asym situations etc.
Say you want to split the shoe into 6-hands betting portions (bet for real or fictionally). At a 8-deck shoe you'll get around 12 situations (ties ignored).
It's impossible that every situation will be symmetrically placed, thus some portions must involve a B advantage (asym apparition).
Nevertheless most portions are symmetrically placed getting a very different EV depending upon which side we like to bet.
It could happen that one or more asym hands will show up within every single portion of this shoe (thus making profitable a B wagering), but I guess it's more likely we'll hit a slot jackpot.
More likely and knowing that the asym hand apparition probability is around 8%, some portions will be asym hands free.
The average probability is that a slight lesser amount of such portions will be symmetrically placed. Actually a balanced occurence of asym hands cannot get a steady pace for obvious reasons, so we could infer that more than one asym hands might show up in one or more portions. Therefore lowering (or increasing) the probability on subsequent portions.
Not giving a damn about the actual results, we know that the shoe is producing an average amount of pure sym or asym/sym portions.
Portions formed by all sym hands cannot elicit other than a Player betting. On the contrary, portions containing one or possibly more asym hands will elicit a Banker wagering.
Combined with the very slight propensity to get the opposite result, asym hand quality and actual outcome, general asymmetricity of card distributions and some other features regarding specific random walks, it's not that difficult to spot the situations where our EV will be neutral or hugely shifted toward one side or another.