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Messages - AsymBacGuy

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136
Besides playing and playing,  the best way to get additional money is to mentor high stakes players and not asking miseries from common people. Otherwise the inventor should share ideas for free. Or write a book. Or simply shut up.
Another option involving celebrity would be to give a lecture at MIT, but more likely than not the listeners would laugh at him/her.

Therefore system sellers are 100% scammers by definition.

Giz provided interesting concepts here but the idea that randomness involving perfect independent events might be controlled is totally unacceptable.

To win at games we need to find spots where probability values change. And to do that we absolutely need finite dependent events, that is games of cards.

Roulette can only be beaten by defects of production (biased wheels or biased software).

as.   

137
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: September 06, 2018, 02:14:16 am »
When I was younger especially in Atlantic City and up in Connecticut had no idea what the casino hosts were doing in actuality. But they got that 4 hour minimum with those average bets for the room food beverage and incidentals for the higher line players and there's a reason why they do that!! 

But there's a lot more than that, they do. Of course we know all that now many years later but what they do is very good and they're very good at how they keep players there.

Yeah!

You kept stressing about the importance to play wisely and actually and without any doubt this site is the only one to provide meaningful insights about how to reduce the house edge, to say the least.


as. 

138
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: September 06, 2018, 12:30:46 am »
I have witnessed numerous people win hundreds of thousands of dollars in short periods of sections like 8 to 15 hands and I've seen those same people almost every one of them give it back over 1 to 4  shoes, because they couldn't repeat what they just did. 

I've seen it way too much!

Exactly.

You have to win very few to stay alive at this game, imo.

That's why casinos entice players to wager every hand.

as.

 

139
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: September 06, 2018, 12:04:27 am »
No need to think.

Average distributions will take care of it.

People who make a living at baccarat want to wager very few hands.

as.




 
 

140
Series 1 = 50% of the time (yes I know, anything can and will happen & results are not evenly distributed in the short term, so please spare me all that).  Streaks of 2 = 25%, streaks of 3 = 12.5%, streaks of 4's = 6.5%, streaks of 5 = 3.25% and so on.

Taking for grant that baccarat is a 50/50 game (and of course it isn't) , streaks of 4s have a 6.25% probability to appear and not 6.5%. The same about streaks of 5s.
Itlr a 0.25% difference means a lot. 

as.

141
Exactly why I adhere to and look for 'sections with their turning points' to do exactly like what AsymBAC is referring to. 

Referring to trying to catch the time between the unbalanced and the balanced, or attempting to catch the balancing or equaling or the deficit of it.

+1000
This concept is of paramount importance, no matter what strategy we are employing.
Pretend to be a bj player: most of the times you are unfavorite, sometimes you are favorite but things can change dramatically in very few hands in a way (mostly negative) or another.

it's time to set up a team, Glen.

 
as. 

 



 


142
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat TIES catching
« on: July 30, 2018, 11:00:29 pm »
Good points Al.

If I can't win mathematically, I want to get all the possible weapons to be at my side.
Statistics, actual outcomes, flow of the W/L players at the table, everything.

There's no fkn way that strong winning players are going to give back the entire amount won on the actual shoe because of the possibility they'll get the same amount of losing situations on the same shoe. Maybe they are wrong to set up their bets, not the percentage of W/L decisions. 
Not mentioning strong losing players.

At the same time  and conversely taken the concept, more often than not shoes containing multiple winning TIES or other winning side bets aren't going to give back the money won on the same shoe.

That is that shoes NOT forming multiple winning situations must discarded from our play.
At every negative edge game, we must hope to get solely one situation: winning clusters.

We do not want to chase a losing situation unless it would be strongly deviated to our side.
For example, after 60 or more hands and zero or just 1 TIE had happened, betting TIE would be a sensible option. We'll lose 20 or so bets in the effort at worst.

Same about ties not coming out consecutively or 1-hand gapped for 50-60 single tie hands.
In this instance, a progression can get the best of it despite the rarity of such target.
Notice that we are going to bet after an event searched had happened.

as. 
 

143
Good post, Giz.

Every baccarat gambler will hope to get favourable coincidences.
He bet A or B hoping to get multiple As or Bs or to hope that his careful strategic plan will be always appropriate to the actual conditions.
That's not possible.

The coincidental/non coincidental world comes out randomly but  it is quite unbalanced on short terms and of course is going to be very slight balanced on long terms.
Therefore a strategic plan oriented to get a balancement will bring us to a sure failure, especially if we are not taking care of the actual conditions we are meeting.

At the same time, a stubbornly strategic plan directed to find endless unbalancements on every pattern we cross is going to get the same failure unless we try to know the possible factors that are leading to this.

as.   

144
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat TIES catching
« on: July 29, 2018, 12:29:28 am »
Moreover, a quite low probability is supposed to show up either very rarely or in clusters (meaning by lower gaps than what expected probability dictates, frequently by very strict gaps)

Almost never a  rare event is supposed to show up by the perfect general probability pace.

Do not forget that a rare event must catch up a possible deficit by getting a higher frequency on single shoes or conversely diluting a high past frequency registered on multiple shoes.

The expected EV is always the same (-14%) still the ACTUAL variance is very very high for obvious reasons.
Sooner or later some mathematical situations promting ties will arise, and there's no way that a given event will come out more often than not without showing up at least once.   

as.

 




 
 

145
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat TIES catching
« on: July 29, 2018, 12:08:22 am »
House edge is a big evil and when it is tough to beat approx 1% edge of banker or player(rather considered impossible), thinking of beating a 14x house edge could be closer to insanity. I have worked upon tie bet for a very long time with no success. Why would one go for such bets with super heavy burden?

Well, a deck particularly rich of even cards will greatly enlarge the probability to get ties, for example.
Not mentioning that the percentage of 4/5/6 cards employed to form each hand follows some controllable variance lines.

When the 5 cards/ 4 or 6 cards forming hand ratio has reached very high values, it's time to bet ties.

as. 

146
Yes, but a large part of the possible results are equivalent in terms of outcomes.

Of course the baccarat player wouldn't want to know what precisely happens for each hand, just the distribution of the results.

For example, the probability to get two shoes in a row not forming at least a couple of  P singles in a row is almost not existent. The same about not having a Banker streak of at least 3 and so on.

Each shoe is just a minuscule part of the entire picture. No one bj player would expect to get a possible mathematical advantage per every shoe played (such probability is just around 12-13%), why a baccarat player should expect or find favourable situations per every shoe played?

as.   


 



147
Baccarat Forum / Re: Article on baccarat
« on: June 26, 2018, 11:11:06 pm »
Actually very high stakes players flat betting the maximum limit are the only ones who are sure to lose the expected, nothing more but very often less as their losses are decurted by a variable percentage not speaking about comps, gifts, etc.

The rest of the players are destined to lose a lot more than the maximum edge of 1.25%....

Yes itlr a $100.000 bet gives $1250 to the casino, but such players might put a huge dent in casino's pockets in case of long positive streaks and players can't do anything worse than be 1.25% disadvantaged in case of negative situations. 

as.



 

148
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat TIES catching
« on: June 21, 2018, 12:42:35 am »
Welcome to your new position Glen!

as.

149
General Discussion / Re: THE FORUM'S NEW OWNER WILL BE GLEN (Alrelax)
« on: June 21, 2018, 12:39:56 am »
I'm very happy to hear that.

Despite being in strong disagreement with him on some gambling topics, I know for sure Glen is a great, respectful, generous and competent person.
Not forgetting that he played most baccarat shoes than anyone else here and there.

A warm welcome, Glen!

A special thanks goes to Vic that made a hard work to mantain this site alive.

as. 



 

150
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat TIES catching
« on: June 20, 2018, 10:48:47 pm »
Thanks Al.

Of course I'm not referring to you, but actually I voluntarily made the mistake to say that 5 cards are prompting a tie more than 4 cards to see whether someone wnated to dispute this (correctly).
In reality 5 cards are the worst scenario to get ties.

I agree with you about the general perception of ties any player gets: you won't' think about them unless they had come out very clustered or very dispersed (or nothing at all up to a point).

as.



 

 

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