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Messages - AsymBacGuy

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Real-World Casino Action / Re: Interesting Zumma Stats
« on: June 01, 2019, 10:12:40 pm »
IMO there exists superior opportunities if you wait and monitor multiple tables. 

Yes, yes, yes and yes!!!


Real-World Casino Action / Re: Anthropomorphizing the Game
« on: June 01, 2019, 10:04:31 pm »
Actually Junket King aka Johno, this is a good post.

When playing a strict mechanical game (and it could mean to bet every hand or only one-two hands per 2-3 shoes) any serious player should know the sd values, the different points of success, in a word the probability to be ahead or behind because such player had tested a lot of different shoes without having to bet a dime on them.
If we think the game in term of pattern ranges of probability, imo, we can't be so wrong, surely not beyond the math disadvantage.



That line was obviosuly a sarcastic note about how is easy to distrust other's ideas and works putting atop of it the old fkng math issue saying that bac cannot be beaten.

Maybe it could.



Nice posts Al.

Now expect some people telling you that such bets have an astoundingly EV negative itlr, or that those long streaks happen very rarely. :-)

If the game isn't beatable mathematically or statistically (and of course it is) this thread should demonstrate that some betting lines may cause the house to get a bit of discomfort, albeit temporary.



I am hurting today, about 1 and a half hour sleep.  What a session, what a great session.  And I did this last night because of the great email I got from AsymB, thank you buddy!  Those few sentences sent me out with the song I love in my mind, Burning Down the House.

Greeeaaat job buddy!!  :thumbsup:

I like that song too...

Now do not try to give the money back. :-)

Soon it'll come a day when casinos will be forced to treat baccarat as black jack as every single bet they are offering is 100% beatable.



It happens to everyone, Al.
Quitting as winners just to see that we would have won many more bets...
But as long as we do not have our crystal ball, this is a sure indicator that we're doing good.



Yeah, I know Al.
Weird things that happen...

Do not tell me that you have lost on that session having two strong human betting indicators...:-)



Even not knowing the details, it's interesting to notice that in such "fight" the loser have lost almost the double won by the winner.
That's why casinos prosper.

I really do not see how a player gifted with only two neurons could lose a lot by wagering the first shoe displayed.



AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: April 27, 2019, 01:54:23 am »
Thanks Al.
We're speaking the same language even though is taken by different angles.

There's no fkng way that playing into a random taxed model we'll be more right than wrong by instinct or by following trends or by mechanical placements unless we assess carefully what's happening, what's happened so far and what is slightly more likely to happen.
Moreover, we should know what's our real goal per every session played. We can't hope to win every session and we can't break even after an harsh losing session.
Are casinos going to win every fkng day or week? No way.   

The certainty of a given outcome can only be extracted by the proper use of time or by utilizing other tools (defect of randomness for example).


We know that the probability to get a big road shoe without any B or P single or streak or double or 3+ streak is close to zero.
But if we consider the common three additional derived roads is absolutely zero. ZERO. Mathematically.

Going down to some of less likely outcomes and testing a lot of real shoes, we'll see that what happened so far tends to represent it in the same shoe and, at a lesser degree, what not happened so far gets a slightly increased probability to appear.
The process is endorsed by a supposedly flaw of randomness.

The problem is when to start to bet and when to stop it.

It should be an idiocy to stop the betting when crossing a winning streak, but the exact counterpart (stopping to bet when losing) will provide huger benefits.

Casinos want us to gamble, playing every hand or betting side bets.
Therefore we should disappoint their hopes, so betting very few hands (or betting small every hand and wagering 10x or more on key hands).

It's very likely that a team formed by me, Al, Sputnik, roversi, Bally and some others will crush every casino in the world by the simple concept of convergence of probability taken by different angles.
To get a decent profit we must join $1000 or $2000 min tables, let casinos think we're stupi.d gamblers.

Our goal will be to be banned in the casino we're playing at.

Our motto is

put your fkng math edge in your behind


AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: April 23, 2019, 11:05:33 pm »
Thanks for your inputs and replies.

Look how awesome is to know that one specific situation is going to happen (or not) per a given class of shoes dealt.
But the specific situation must be firmly set up in mind BEFORE playing and adjusted accordingly to what the shoe produces but always in terms of "playable" or "not playable" shoe. 

In order to do that we need to take advantage or, even better, to build several random walks endorsing the probability to look for the searched situation.

Playing by instinct or by experience may be valuable random walks but too much affected by emotional and actual factors. More importantly playing instinctively leads to bet too many hands.

Five random walks are directly diplayed on the screen (big road, bead plate road, etc) but we could build infinite random walks even not based upon the B/P results (for example about the first and second card dealt).

For example, one of the artificial road one can easily add is the third to last hand registration.
We wait three resolved hands then the fourth hand will be classified going back three hands, then registering it into two separated columns (S=same, O=opposite).

for example:



Of course there's no a direct value in registering the outcomes in such a way, it's just a ploy to raise the probability to cross the searched situation that could be delayed on other roads.

But the real value of registering multiple random walks simultaneously is whenever our plan dictates to get B or P on more than half of all random walks considered.

The reason is all about the difficulty to get a sudden inversion of probability's plan on many roads, at least on more than half of them.

In case our plan suggests all roads to get the same outcome in the same point (a relatively rare finding even adopting only 3 or 4 roads), our wager will get an astounding EV+.

Despite the wonderful profits such scheme will produce, I know there's a methodological issue to be solved: the presence of ties. At least theoretically.

Since we have to discount ties in our registrations (besides big road and bead plate) we know that results' distribution may be affected in some way.

In a word, shoes particularly rich of ties at the start should be avoided (along with the shoes not fitting other conditions we're looking for).


AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: April 22, 2019, 10:36:45 pm »
What should make "unbeatable" a given plan?

My answer: the certainty that a class of events must show up per any shoe at different degrees of presentation.
I'm not talking about a very very high probability that something is going to happen but the certainty that something happens.

Of course just knowing that something is 100% going to show up doesn't help us too much as we need to estimate when and how many times those events come out per any shoe.
In a word, we must build a proportion between searched events and number of attempts.
If we know that some shoes will provide just one searched event, we must restrict at most our attempts to spot this event as we're risking many to win one.
Conversely, knowing that some shoes will present many searched events, money utilized to spot those situations will be spent with a way higher probability to be right AT LEAST IN ONE SPOT. That is the minimum requirement of certainty we should look for. 

That is I do not want to win several bets within limited intervals of time with high degree of uncertainty but to win very little in safe conditions of certainty within relatively large amount of samples.

If such certainty would be ALWAYS limited in the space of 5-6 attempts per shoe, a simple martingale would solve the problem.
Unfortunately not every shoe will provide the room to make 5-6 attempts, in other words certainty becomes certainty only in selected circumstances.
And not by magical forces, just for a matter of space as any shoe is a finite separated dependent world.

See tomorrow




Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
« on: April 21, 2019, 10:42:44 pm »
The control of variance is impossible

It depends on what you consider as controllable.
Baccarat is a finite dependent asymmetrical card process, it's not a coin flip endless succession, thus not every A/B fight will produce the same correspondent sd values a CF game provides. And neither a static 50.68/49.32 A/B probability model will produce what really happens per every shoe of baccarat. 
The deeper you analyze different A/B situations (random walks) the better the variance will be restrained, that is the pendulum swinging range.
I could decide to let it go some shoes not adhering to my statistical conclusions right at the start as no single, no streak, no pattern is equal to another one. It appears to be equal but it isn't.

Btw, thanks for your kind words.



Baccarat Forum / Re: 2 of the biggest reasons that most players lose
« on: April 15, 2019, 09:41:35 pm »
#1: absolutely correct, I'm telling this since 1980 :-)

#2: I do not know where are you playing at,  but in the cardrooms I'm used to attend almost nobody is going to bet vs streaks or long chops. Still such players are losers as they tend to increase their wagers in the effort to break even after a losing period. 




One thing for sure, Al.
Your thoughts are really worthwhile.

Moreover, this site provided great inputs from people like you, Sputnik, Jimskie, Bally, gr8player, greenguy, Lungyeh, roversi, rolexwatch and many others now I do not recall the nickname.

Put the thoughts together and this game is 100% beatable itlst (in the longest terms)




Interesting thoughts.



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