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31
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: My concluding post
« on: June 03, 2020, 08:06:30 pm »
Hope you'll be back very soon.  :thumbsup:

as.

 

32
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 03, 2020, 02:15:25 am »
Tomorrow I'll discuss nonsense topics as "quit when you are ahead", "secure a profit", and the more intriguing "stop win or stop loss", all "human factors" that cannot alter in our favor the natural flow of the game.

as. 
 

33
Baccarat Forum / Re: Actual Hands of a Bad Beat Bac Shoe
« on: June 02, 2020, 10:33:37 pm »
I'll start another thread about those bead beat options in my section.
Anyway it's interesting to notice that 8s/9s bad beat must come out very often at least once per every shoe dealt, unfortunately the three card 8-9 bad beat appearance is very volatile and should be easily fixed by a "proper" shuffling.

as. 

 

34
Baccarat Forum / Re: Actual Hands of a Bad Beat Bac Shoe
« on: June 02, 2020, 09:29:58 pm »
Thanks Al!

I just add that 8s/9s bad beat side bet is one of the best opportunities to wager on, getting an astounding player's advantage.

as. 
 

35
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 02, 2020, 08:48:57 pm »
You are welcome! :-)

Obviously the level of asymmetricity (generally intended) of each shoe dealt is strictly related to the actual card distribution. Same shoes dealt and shuffled poorly tend to mantain the same level of asymmetricity but very often detected by different patterns' shapes. That's why we need several r.w.'s operating for us.

Since 1-2, 1-3 and B2/B1-B3 and P2/P1-P3 cover all the most frequent possibilities at various degrees, we might get a more precise idea about how "asymmetrically" cards are distributed along the actual shoe. Or, better sayed, which spots are more likely to be asymmetrically distributed.

Any 2-hand attack features a theorical winning probability of 0.75 on symmetrical hands and various different probabilities when one of two asymmetrical hands come along.
For example, if our plan dictates to wager P side two times and two asym hands come out, the P winning probability is restricted to about 0.6645.
In the same example, just one asym hand coming out on our two P betting attempts shifts the P winning probability to about 0.71.

Naturally asym hands don't come out around the corner, therefore many "more likely Banker outcomes" should be assessed by the actual quality/quantity pattern distribution. We do not want to bet a side being unnecessarily payed 0.95:1, especially when the actual distribution seems to privilege the symmetrical hands formation.

as. 

36
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 02, 2020, 08:02:19 pm »
Hi Rickk.

Numbers register how many P2 doubles come out after an initial P2 "trigger": if P2 is limited by an immediate P1 or P3 the number registered will be 1.
If a couple of P2 patterns come around consecutively, we'll write 2. If three P2 patterns show up we'll write 3 and so on.

Example.

BPPBBBPBPPBBPPBBBBBPBPBBPPBPPBBPPBPPBPPPBPPBBBPPPPB according to the P2/P1-P3 r.w is:

1-2-4-2

In the same sequence the B2/B1-B3 r.w. is read as:

1-1-1

 
as.







 
 

37
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: May 27, 2020, 01:14:09 am »
In the last shoe notice how would fare a cumulative strategy applied simultaneously to every 6 possible "highest state" number pattern:

1. - -  + + + +

2. - + + + + -

3. + + + - + -

4. + + + + + -

5. - + + + + -

6. + + + - + -

7. + + - + + +

8. + + - + - +

9. + - + + - +

10. + - + + + +

11. + - + + + +

12. + - + + - +

13. + + - - + +

14. - + + + + -

15. + - + + - +

16. + + - - + +

17. + + - + - +

18. + + + - + -

19. + + + + - -

20. + + - + - +

21. + + + - +

22. - - + + + +

23. + - - + - +

24. + + + + - -

25. - - + + + -

26. + + + + - -

27. + - + + - -

28. + + + + - -

29. - + + + + -

30. + + + - + -

31. - - + + + +

32. + + - + + +

33. + + + - - -

34. - - + + + +

35. + + - + + +

36. + + + - - -

37. + + - - + +

38. - + - + + -

39. - + + + + +

40. - - - + + +

38
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: May 27, 2020, 12:06:25 am »
Another live shoe taken from the now defunct Lucky Dragon casino:

1-2-1-3-2-1-2-1-2-1-3-2-2-2-2-2-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-2-3

123) -,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+

132) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+

213) +,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+

231) +,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+

312) +,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,-

321) +,-,-,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,-

39
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: May 26, 2020, 11:23:30 pm »
A couple of examples taken randomly.

Original shoe results: 2-1-2-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-3-2-1-3-3-1-3-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-2-2-2-1-1-1


123) +,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+

132) +,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+

213) -,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-

231) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+

312) +,-,-,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,-

321) +,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,+,+

Second shoe: 1-1-1-3-1-2-3-3-2-1-1-2-1-3-2-3-3-1-2-1-1-3-1-3-1-3-1-1-2-3-3-1-1-1-3-1-2-1

123) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+

132) -,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,++,+,+,-,-,+,+,+

213) +,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,-

231) +,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,-,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-

312) +,-,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-

321) +,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+

Even though original shoes were presented by the stupi.dest way of registration (big road) and that many - signs are getting us a -3 unit loss and nearly half of + signs are getting us an inferior +1 payment, some +/- situations are more "due" than others.

Notice that unb plan #1 worked wonderfully on first shoe but quite tremendously bad on the second one.
First shoe presented 21 states change and second shoe 27 states change.

1-step level unb plan #2 results got respectively a LWWW and WW events.

as.

40
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: May 26, 2020, 10:09:42 pm »
Let's consider our old three different states where every pattern in the universe will belong to.

Generally speaking, the less will be the number of states occurring at a given shoe, better will be the probability to get long winning streaks as a single state or, more likely, a couple of states may be present for long without the "intrusive" effect of the unwelcome third one.

On the other end, we've seen that another strategy relies just upon the opposite thought, that is that certain spots must change their shape in a way or another.

Let's start to examine the theorically "perfect" situations capable to get the highest number of states change happening along any shoe.

When three different states are involved, only six possibilities getting ALL change states come around :

An "endless" succession of 1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3.... or 1-3-2-1-3-2-1-3-2... or 2-1-3-2-1-3-2-1-3... or
2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3-1... or 3-1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2... or 3-2-1-3-2-1-3-2-1....

Everything in between gets at least one "winning" situation, that is the third state must be silent for more than the 3-step steady pace featured on the above six patterns.

Notice that all six patterns came out by a 1/3 singles/streaks ratio instead of the more natural 1/1 ratio, meaning that those patterns are "biased" at the start.
Yet we are not interested about the numbers but about the pace.

In a sense we're trying to put in relationship those 6 different "biased" (hence asymmetrical) patterns with the actual natural asymmetrical production, not assigning a precise value to any side or value (as in no way itlr B1=P1, B2=P2 and B3=P3, not mentioning that in the overwhelming majority of times the "3" category inglobes very different patterns).

Even though many "natural" big road or derived roads registrations may offer some profitable opportunities, we need to set up more intricated random walks applied to the actual results' production.

as.   

41
Baccarat Forum / Re: Actual Hands of a Bad Beat Bac Shoe
« on: May 24, 2020, 11:21:54 pm »
Ok, but at EZ tables house edge is still around 1% (better than 1.06%..)

as.   

42
Baccarat Forum / Re: Actual Hands of a Bad Beat Bac Shoe
« on: May 24, 2020, 11:11:47 pm »
The 58 hands dealt shoe:

+ - + + + + + + + + + + - - + + - + + + - + + *

B2/B1-B3: + + + + *

Overall wins before tax: + 5

as.


43
Baccarat Forum / Re: Actual Hands of a Bad Beat Bac Shoe
« on: May 24, 2020, 11:04:56 pm »
Nice job Al, thanks.

Let's consider this last shoe outcomes upon my plans lens.

1-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-2-3-3-1-1-2-3-2-2-1-3-3

that is + + + + + + + + + + + + + - - + - - - +

B2/B1-B3: - + +

An overall -1 loss before tax....

But...

as.

 

 

44
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: May 24, 2020, 10:51:52 pm »
Examples taken from Wynn and Gold Coast live shoes data.

1-2 and 1-3 plans joined with B2/B1-B3 attacks made on the entire shoe regardless of asym/sym quality assessment.

+ + - - - + + + + + + + - + + + - + + - + + - - + + + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3:  - - - + - -

+ + + + + + + - + - + + + - -  + + -

B2/B1-B3: + - + +

+ + + - + - + - + + + + + - + - + + + + - + + - + + - + -

B2/B1-B3: + - + + + +

- + + - + - - - + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3: - + - + + +

- + + + + + + + + + + - - + - + + + + + + - - + + + - + - *

B2/B1-B3: - - + + +

+ + - + + + - + - + + + + + + + - + + + + + - + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3: + + +

+ + + - + + + + - + + + + + + + + + - - + - - + + + + + + + +

B2/B1-B3: + + - - - + + - +

+ + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + - + + -

B2/B1-B3: - + - + +

Not surprisingly in the first shoe presented most asym hands went "wrong" for B side despite of the math advantage.

as.




45
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: May 24, 2020, 10:18:43 pm »
The decisive tool to test any B/P system is by considering the limiting values of relative frequency of EVERY possible shoe's pattern, thus covering how it fares through every possible card distribution.

The ploy to restrict the outcomes into three classes will help us a lot for two reasons.

First, baccarat features the very slight propensity to produce the opposite result already happened;

Secondly,  after the 3 level is reached we may consider all 3+ superior classes the same as 3s.

Since it may appear so easy to simply bet toward shorter patterns as singles and doubles, we should focus our interest about those 3s distribution.

3s and 3+s are by definition asymmetrical situations even if a given 3+ is composed by a BBBBBB sequence or PPPP pattern as they get or not a given probability of taking advantage (B side) or shifting (P side) the asym force determined by the rules.

Of course pure 3s (streaks of just three B/P hands) are more likely to be the product of sym situations as the overall asym probability is confined to 8.6% over the total hands dealt. The longer any streak is forming higher will be the probability to cross an asym situation as virtually (and practically) no shoe is producing all symmetrical events.
And we know that not all asym hands will form a B decision, of course.

It could easily happen that asym hands may come out within shorter BP patterns, for example after a single B result or after a single P hand or after a couple of the same situations.
Thus, for example, betting itlr toward P singles and P doubles just mean to hope that the asym force will happen right on those spots as the mere symmetrical force cannot be of any help other than for short term variance issues.

Itlr, our profit can only and only come out just when the sum of our Player bets were placed on sym hands payed 1:1 and when our Banker bets were getting a quite higher than 8.6/91.4 ratio.
Naturally those P bets must involve more than a strenght of sym value, mostly in form of more likely card distribution, whereas B bets generally rely upon a selected endorsed math probability.


Back to the "everything is possible" shoe production.
We could think the bac shoe situation as a continuous 1-2-3 succession, knowing that homogeneous 1 or 2 or 3 situations aren't going to happen. But two situations out of three are more likely to happen along the entire lenght of the shoe and we know we had to discard 2-3 situations unless happening at B side (with the additional help of B2/B1 apparition).
We are so sure about that that a multilayered progression made on B doubles consecutiveness will cross very soon a certain "jackpot" situation, the same but at a lower degree when considering two or more consecutive wins when applied to the 1/2 and 1/3 method.

as.

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