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91
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: December 05, 2018, 10:28:10 pm »
There's an interesting line of thought suggesting that the first half or 2/3 results of a shoe will slightly affect the probability of the remaining outcomes.

More later.

as.

92
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 30, 2018, 10:26:37 pm »
Right, very rare.  But lesser productions of P single not so rare and is why I use the 1's as a key to help determine the bias.  We can use a bet placement that exploits this.  Any positive expectation (weighted count, regression to mean, etc.) has escaped me.  Enter the "educated" guess.
Assuming you or anyone has identified such it no doubt requires a potential long wait.  Waiting even for Sputnik's Ecart still produces the problem with variance due to the low odds.  We'd have to be in the neighborhood of 75%+ prediction to make it practical.

Do you disagree?

Nope, you are completely right.

We need some time to consistently win in the same way casinos need time to let the math edge or variance destroying players' bankrolls.
Only recreational players try to win every or almost every single situation dealt and that's not possible.

Imo, time and "space" are the two most important factors when playing baccarat.
Time allows math and variance to show up and space is the physical factor that works by time frames.

Spaces can be reduced by bankroll managements, nothing we can do about time but waiting.

as.

93
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 28, 2018, 02:31:46 am »
Although your "sections and turning points" post is very valuable, we can't forget that power of math and statistics.

For example, we know for sure that somewhere banker will produce a streak or a given amount of streaks. There's no way that a given shoe will produce just one B streak, but we surely know that very rare given shoes won't produce a P single.
The answer is easy: streaks consume a well more room than singles but B side is more prone to produce streaks as it's more likely to happen.

Say we want to bet a very complicated and hyper selected strategic plan oriented to lose only when a shoe won't present a P single AND at least two B streaks.
We won't lose by 1 billion accuracy.

as.

94
##### Baccarat Forum / Re: Convergence of baccarat events, AKA: Banging the casino quick & hard
« on: November 28, 2018, 02:13:20 am »
I think that baccarat players must play probabilities whatever they could be considered in the given shoe.

Probabilities run in ranges and not just in one hand shot, such thing is just a losers' feature.

Along the way, no human instinct could overwhelm the power of math and statistics. this is just a fallacy.

It needs a lot of study and experience to read what are the real good opportunities to bet following probabilities and a fair portion of shoes won't accomplish that.

Imo we do not want to guess anything, we do want to play probabilities.

There's no way one player could win every shoe dealt, yet 99.99% of players keep betting every shoe dealt.

Show me one bac player not playing every shoe dealt and I'll be more prone to say he/she's a long term winner.

as.

95
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 22, 2018, 11:38:42 pm »
Thanks Jimskie!!!

After all singles provide less issues than streaks. A single is a single, streaks are of many kinds.
I mean that if we hope to get an initial streak, we should be happy to win the first hand. If we keep flat betting the streak, we need at least a streak of three to be ahead providing we continue to wager the streak until it stops.

Third card flow.

Everybody has noticed that more often than not  third cards greatly helps or totally not the player side. Sometimes miracles happen but they do not alter too much the shoe texture.
The same, this time more easy to understand, when player is standing and banker is drawing a third card. Obviously we do not want to find ourselves in such situation.

Remember that from a general point of view, a third card is a helpful card more often than not.
Asians like to shout "monkey" when they are betting a possible not drawing banker and waiting for the third card to show up, but they forget that the probability to get a monkey is "just" 30.76%.
Thus nearly 70% of the times they are dog to see what they wish to see.

Of course a third card could be an 8 or 9 or an high card damaging the Player or Banker hand. Or this card is going to make an unbeatable or hugely favorite P hand. Banker has the advantage to act after Player but it has no gain to draw if P is standing.

So how to consider a third card as good or bad from a player or banker perspective?

First, when playing baccarat we shouldn't want to see a third card falling on the side we are betting into.

If it happens we are losing money, except when we catch the quite rare pure drawing-drawing situations and we're betting P side.

When betting P side we want a standing point, when we are betting B side we want P drawing and B having any point different from 0, 1 or 2.

Nonetheless, third card has a sort of natural flow in direction to either help or not the side we are betting into.

Most people don't focus enough on third card nature as a large part of outcomes is decided by first four initial cards.

More later.

as.

96
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 21, 2018, 11:30:59 pm »
Al, of course your post provides important informations

Almost all the time, people cannot cool off or stop playing and thus the disaster will strike.  Probably 99.98 to 99.99.9% of the times players win.  IMO and Experience.

This part is of extraordinary importance.

Bac players lose a lot more than expected by math as they want to recover too rapidly.
Or simply they want to recover trying to guess the unguessable.
They start betting side bets when losing and actually they should do right the opposite.

Simply put, people win less on positive patterns and lose more on negative ones.
In reality the sum is always zero (plus the vig burden).

Every random game is formed by streaks and singles, the same about baccarat regarding the quality of the hands (not the results).
The exact points evaluation don't add anything worth of it; it's too complex and quite unreliable for the volatlity impact.

People emphasizes positively or negatively when "miracles" decide the hand outcome.
They shout with joy when their bet on player 4 catches a third card 7 and banker with 5 catches another 5. They win with 1 vs zero but they should be unhappy as they have totally mistaken which side to bet on. In fact P 4 - B 5 is one of the best opportunities to get an advantage (on B, of course).
Miracles (there are tons of them) are just a very small part of the total happenings at baccarat. And they tend to alter the general flow of probabilities very rarely.
They seem to do but they do not. Forget the hands won or lost by miracles. They tend to confuse.

Regarding the quality of initial 4-card hands we have four main fields to register singles or streaks at either side:

natural/standing points  -one side
drawing points  -one side
P drawing/ B standing 3-4-5-6 (asym hand) -both sides
P drawing/ B drawing

The very best player in the universe is the person capable to get the P draw/ B standing 3-4-5-6 situation at least one time over 8-9 attempts (mathematically it's about 1/11). Naturally he will bet always Banker.

The second best player in the world is the player capable to get a drawing hand on P side at least 73-75% of the times. Again he's going to wager Banker.

The third best player is the Player bettor capable to get at least 45% of the time a standing/natural hand.

Period.

You'll notice that the worst option we could have at baccarat is to get a drawing/drawing situation. It's true that if we bet P side we are playing a zero edge game but we are in huge trouble if we are wagering B (as it's payed 0.95:1 or prone to get some taxed hands as F-7, etc).

So not everytime a P drawing hand is good for Banker. Fortunately the pure B drawing hands are few (0, 1 and 2); 3,4,5,6 elicit the precious asym situation and 7,8 and 9 stand.

Fast is fine but accuracy is everything (Wyatt Earp)

At baccarat we'll win itlr only if we are able to catch the various flows (S, D, N, etc) that advantage mathematically one side.
Easy to see that it's impossible to be accurate playing every hand or most hands. It's like to admit that we are able to catch every single flow happening at the table.

Therefore now we can rely upon two different levels of thinking and classification: results and quality of the first initial points.
Sometimes those two levels collide and those are the best opportunities to put a real wager.

By now we have talked about first four initial cards. But also the third card plays a huge, albeit secondary, role.
Next time.

as.

97
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 21, 2018, 09:09:21 am »
I use the 1's only.  If they have been average by the quarter shoe I don't expect much long streaks - until the second half when card composition often changes due to certain denomination depletion.

That's interesting.
Do you want to say something more on that?

as.

98
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 21, 2018, 12:39:04 am »
Forget the real outcomes, this is just a losers topic.
Instead consider this new way of playing the game adopting those words: chopping and streaking.

No news huh?

Ok.
Go on.

Chopping= hands that form short or no streaks on either side.
Even though it could appear as a weird assumption, this is the main feature of baccarat.
Now what's short?
Surely singles, surely doubles. Maybe triples. Stop!

If you have been reading my posts, you know that the average number of 3+ streaks happening on a single shoe is around 9.
Thus everybody here knows (not there) that the average number of 4+ streaks is around 4.5.

Streaking=hands that tend to form 3+ streaks.

Every fkn single shoe in the universe will present a given amount of chopping situations and a given amount of streaking situations.
Well, a whole streaking shoe won't be produced by any means except if one or more streaks are so long that chopping won't have any room to appear.
Conversely, if you have your last bucks to spend I reckon you'll wait some favourable situations to bet on chopping patterns as they surely as hell will happen along the way.

Curiously, chopping and streaking will appear at various degrees per every shoe dealt.
The probability of average chopping/streaking occurence knowing what happened so far in the shoe was deeply studied by your "hero" :-)

Actually an english team discovered this bac flaw several years ago. They have destroyed and are continuing to destroy many casinos. What's their strenght?
They know the shoes to attack and which shoes to let it go.
Ironically they made most money at Ritz casino in London and everybody knows the Phil Ivey story. PI wasn't payed, they did.

So rule #1.

Not every shoe is beatable by a high degree of confidence. And they need it.

Then rule #2.

A progression is worth if applied on multiple same situations coming out on different shoes and whether such betting spots are considered worth of betting. It's just an accelerator.

Rule #3

Progressions can only work if multilayered conceived and never by a linear progression.

Ranges.

Trying to guess right every hand or most hands dealt is a silly losing operation. We simply can't.
Better to play a winning range where we need just one hand to be ahead.

Say we want to get any streak in a given spot. And say we want to apply a 1-2-4 progression.
To lose we must cross a 3 singles apparition. It could happen but by a careful assessment of what happened so far the probability may be easily lowered to 11% or so. And the average apparition is 12.5%.

The same, even better, if we want to discount the spots where a 4+ streak will happen.
Again, we just need a 14% or so probability to win.

Baccarat is beatable right on the same field the house will rely upon: tiny edges infinitely working.

I'll come back soon on more topics.

as.

99
##### Baccarat Forum / Re: Player consistently winning with a 6 or 7 total
« on: November 20, 2018, 11:31:22 pm »
"Take care instead of what happened in the previous shoes at the same location."  This bothers me.  I've done quite a bit of shuffle tracking back in my BJ days.  Okay, there's not a player cut in Baccarat anymore which would change the shoe order from one shoe to the next but . . .

Have you actually tracked live shoes by, say, half deck to see how the composition of low/high cards extended from one same color shoe to the next (1,3,5,7)?

How do you back up this claim?

Imo it's quite difficult to get a perfect shuffle of 8 decks either made manually or by CSM.
We know that even one single card burnt or changing position will alter entirely the BP results. Yet the probability to get a high card falling here or there remains, but we might think that per every shoe dealt the number of 8s and 9s (for example) won't be equal on either side.
The same about every other cards class.

It's not news that the game "war" (fundamentally a high card game) is perfectly beatable if any card is removed from the deck, no cards are burnt between hands and the deck is played almost entirely. And actually by now casinos use a CSM and burn a lot of cards (mainly for other reasons).

Baccarat is a more complex version of war but the principle remains the same and we can choose whenever we want which side to bet on.

The side having the two initial cards forming the higher point are largely favorite to win the hand.
Thus we have two opposite forces acting along the way: a natural very slight propensity to get a kind of "chopping" mood and the actual card distribution that tends to deny it as cards are clustered in some way by an imperfect shuffle (thus endorsing the streaks' formation).

Imo the trick is to ascertain when the first force overwhelme the second and vice versa. This could be done by the help of general probabilities and by the actual card distribution.

It's a kind of trend following not solely in terms of actual hands but in terms of cards falling here and there.

If we bet very few hands we could have a better picture of what is happening.

as.

100
##### Baccarat Forum / Re: Player consistently winning with a 6 or 7 total
« on: November 20, 2018, 03:05:05 am »
Hi AS,
with respect,

but my English not good, thus I can't really grasp what you wanna teach,

will greatly appreciate them.

When you are betting the player side and player side is standing with 6,7,8 or 9 you'll win a lot of money; otherwise you are going to lose.

When you are betting the banker side and banker is drawing you are losing a lot of money.

Baccarat is a game where (among other secondary situations) P standing and B drawing are continuosly fighting.
Thus you cannot care less about P standing and B standing situations or P drawing and B drawing situations as they are almost always 50/50 placed.

The perfect bac plan is not trying to guess fkn trends or fkn winning situations, just to get a lot of standing P situations when betting P and a lot of standing B situations when betting B.

Those are what I name "fundamental baccarat laws".

Itlr, P hands are the result of P standing hands and B hands are the result of B standing hands.

Everything different from that is just a short term variance occurence.

as.

101
##### Baccarat Forum / Re: Player consistently winning with a 6 or 7 total
« on: November 15, 2018, 11:29:43 pm »
Hi BTW!

Transform your betting plan into a guessing of when Player side won't get a drawing hand.
Most of the time you'll get a drawing hand and even if could be winning you are a long term loser.

Your new aim is to guess when player will get a standing or natural point, both situations overwhelmed favorite to win. Itlr.

Therefore build a new 2 columns chart having S on left part and D on right part. Write the results (not the actual winning results) on such columns.
Do this per every shoe played.
Forget what really happens and forget what happens on Banker side.

Take care instead of what happened in the previous shoes at the same location.

Odds are that you'll get more isolated S than D and more D clusters than S clusters.
But the probability to get S or D is not so heavily shifted toward D and to get a kind of balancement along the way you must get some S streaks.
Of course when you think that a given S will be followed by a D bet banker, you can't be hugely wrong, actually you are slightly favorite.

as.

102
##### Baccarat Forum / Re: Player consistently winning with a 6 or 7 total
« on: November 15, 2018, 02:04:13 am »
Yes, I meant just what you supposed: banker can stand on a lot of initial points besides 0,1 or 2.

@beat-the-wheel:
the average number of 3+ streaks per every shoe is around 9.
Of course the median and mode values are inferior for obvious issues.

as.

103
##### Baccarat Forum / Re: Player consistently winning with a 6 or 7 total
« on: November 14, 2018, 12:55:53 am »
Yes, but mainly if the first Player cards are a 6-zero value card or 7-zero.
When P has a 6 or 7  two card points is entitled to win most of the times. Actually P streaks are mainly made by naturals and those standing points.
Such points are dog to come out but not so much and they must come out. Often clustered.
Besides that, any 6 or 7 removed from the deck is a good option to negate the banker advantage on the next hand as a 6 or 7 falling into P side is quite more important than whether falling on the other one (as it's unnecessarily taxed).

Thinking that 6s or 7s may come out balanced on either side in the same shoe and accompanied by a picture is difficult to accept, confirmed by long term trials.

If we consider the third card option, we might think in the same way. Whenever a third card is particoularly and consistently good for the Player, we may infer that actual card distribution won't be so balanced in short times.
I mean that anything different from a 9,8,A,2 itlr is good for P side no matter what .

Of course the same happens on the other side, but this time a 8 or 9 could be of great damage as banker stands on any hand different from 0,1,2.

as.

104
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 13, 2018, 11:22:41 pm »
Thanks Al.

Actually I probably posted too many concepts.

Anyway, it's widely known that casinos fear heavy bettors capable to win fast and quitting the table and not common mortals wishing to be right for a long time.

Imo we do not need to join a \$5000 maximum table with the purpose to bet at least \$2500.
We could easily set up our minimum-maximum betting standards from 1 to 2 and strictly adhering to this plan.

In a kind of taxed coin flip game we can't hope to be right after two levels of betting.

as.

105
##### AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: November 13, 2018, 10:22:40 pm »
The most probable way to lose all your money on Baccarat is by going all in on every hand, eventually there will come 1 hand to smack your cheek!

Exactly, unless we go all-in with the maximum bet right at the start. That's why in my example I put the bankroll at \$1000 with a \$1000 maximum limit.

Imo this is an important concept derived from mentoring people who like to bet not less than half the maximum limit.
If we know to have at our disposal just two (50% or 100%) or three (75%) betting amounts, we'll have a clearer picture of what is going on with our selection.
Only 100% bets cannot be recovered mathematically as the vig will wipe out everything itlr, even though a good selection may hopefully invert the HE.

as.

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