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1
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Does playing after a very bad patch helps?
« Last post by Albalaha on Today at 06:01:17 am »
Quote
I believe you, yet imo the problem lies in the word "later". How much later?

When a certain % of total wins vs losses come gradually.

Remember, it is about Regression towards Mean. Do not mix it with any fallacy like "compensatory wins has to come" etc.

All negative progressions fail due to their limits. Martingale fails itself if it is a single big bad stretch going too long, beyond its capacity. A labby or fibonacci loses if the wins are less than 1/3rd of the total outcome. Those forget this fundamental, has to lose.

Gradually is the keyword and we can't define it in exact number of trials but we can have some rough estimates regarding the virtual limits which are almost unbreakable. I gave 28/80 example which is purely beatable with a little aggressive progression like labby.

Come up with a data where we have only 2 wins in 20 spins and the later 80 spins have less than 28 wins.  I won't die even if this happens somehow due to the RTM principles.
2
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Yesterday at 08:52:40 pm »
I know at least a dozen of players making a living at this game and the common trait is they make very few bets. Some of them know a 0.1% of what me and you know about the game, yet they are long term winners.
Mathematically this move is sound. Since the game remains EV-, the probability to be ahead of something will be higher when betting very few hands, say that the best move is to wager everything only one time.
If in this precise instant every bac player in the world will wager Banker, casinos will lose money as B>P even though Banker is payed less than 1:1.
After this hypothetical hand, casinos will win money no matter what.
Obviously if casinos will lose money, players will get something of it.

And altogether obvious is the fact that the more we stay and play the better we are liked by casinos.

Ask the casinos if they would like to fade ten $20.000 wagers made on ten different occasions or if they'd like more ten $20k hands made on the same session.
Mathematically it doesn't change their expectation. In practical terms this simple different approach means a lot.

More on that later.

as. 
3
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Does playing after a very bad patch helps?
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Yesterday at 08:07:21 pm »
A working formula makes me safe during the worst possible and to recover later and not pushing too much in the worst like 30/100.

I believe you, yet imo the problem lies in the word "later". How much later?

In my blog I've presented an "unbeatable progression", meaning that it can't be overcome by the worst successions in the world (ok, almost). Still without a proper bet selection, a player utilizing such progression could easily stay in the negative zone for a long time.

That's not a conceptual problem, of course, but a practical problem as the vast majority of players want to win or breaking even at least per every session played.

And this is just the main reason why players go at home broke.

as. 
 
 



 
4
General Discussion / Re: Fourm re-install
« Last post by Albalaha on Yesterday at 07:51:47 am »
Why installs and re-installs take so many days?
5
General Discussion / Fourm re-install
« Last post by Vic on Yesterday at 06:31:34 am »
We'll be re-installing the forum during the next following days to fix chat + other details :nod:

Just advising so in case you hit a "bumpy experience" on the weekend.

Cheers! :thumbsup:
6
General Discussion / Re: Forum is dormant
« Last post by alrelax on September 19, 2019, 02:09:09 pm »
The ones that were silenced were the ones that were abusive, bringing issues that were not board related or infringing on O.P.'ers threads and causing drama.  They will blame it all on me, but they were the ones that desired control, content and rule of the board.  That behavior will seldom fly on any board, WoV, VMB, etc.  The four members I believe you are referring to are:  Mark/Gizmotron, Junket King-Lugi-Eaglelite, and the other 10 or so sock puppet and alias names, Xander, SoxFan and of course 21 Aces.  I do not believe there was anyone else. 

To the best of my knowledge they are all on another board that they control and say what they want including hatred posts to this board as well WoV, etc. So be it, it is a free world, this is a private business entity the same as a casino, you can be asked to leave and trespassed if the casino desires.  However, with that said, all anyone has to do to post and use this forum is follow the rules. 

And, I will publicly state.  Anyone is allowed back here and can post, as long as they follow the rules and do not cause drama, are respectful and do not bring other boards business here.  Like on GamblingForums where they devote threads to hatred, drama and chastising members of various other message boards.

But I will not have members that go on to threads of people posting with hatred, disrespect and literally and verbally driving the member into the wall with relentless and repetitive drive to grind the OP down because of conflicting beliefs, theories and experiences which is exactly what was happening on a daily basis with those 5 members I mentioned above.   

Thank you, Alrelax. 
7
General Discussion / Forum is dormant
« Last post by Albalaha on September 19, 2019, 05:48:06 am »
Since the forum got functional again, I see negligible discussions and debates here. Most of the members who were pretty active seem to got silenced at once. Why so?
8
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Does playing after a very bad patch helps?
« Last post by Albalaha on September 17, 2019, 04:35:18 am »
Quote
we do not know if previous very bad patterns will be followed by favourable patterns. Not in the same shoe, not in the next ones.
That would be fallacious to think of. A bad one may or may not be followed by a good one. Nothing for sure.
Only sure thing is, from 1 or 2 in 20 to 3 in 10 to 5 in 10 has to happen. Compensatory wins might never happen even if the worst has just happened. My assertion is based upon a statistical principal of Regression towards mean. A working formula makes me safe during the worst possible and to recover later and not pushing too much in the worst like 30/100.
9
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Does playing after a very bad patch helps?
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on September 16, 2019, 08:19:51 pm »
Nope, at least when playing at baccarat.

Since any shoe is the product of a definite card distribution, we do not know if previous very bad patterns will be followed by favourable patterns. Not in the same shoe, not in the next ones.

Sayed that, you are absolutely correct that we should investigate the fluctuations in term of sigma values.
But such fluctuations must be restricted in the correct terms, again it's the bet selection which helps.

I'm 100% certain that no one bac pit would be happy to have me, you, Sputnik and Alrelax playing together.

Probably Al is the best player to transform the "bad" in "good", you are a master to control the deviations, me and Sputnik will do the rest. :-)

as. 

 
 
10
Alrelax's Blog / Re: Rumors from Jerks on the Internet
« Last post by alrelax on September 16, 2019, 03:57:27 pm »
Go ahead Mark, Go ahead Junkie, report Katt William to the Jews, to the FBI, to the ADL end of the Jews, to the KKK if they exist any longer to everyone.  He said kill, he said the N word, ROMAFL!  This dude tells it the way it is, absolutely brilliant, and he is an ebony masterpiece or a African American, whatever, but brilliant and truthful!

Right @ 0:39 to start, thanks!

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