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1
Money Management / Re: Oscar's Grind Test....+50/-20.
« Last post by Eight Iron on Today at 07:20:38 pm »
Oscar Grind is a proven failure way to play. Do not waste your time.

You are right.  Much risk, and no advantage over flat betting.

I tried Oscar?s Grind on these shoes, from bead plate photos posted by Al Relax.  Used a 25 unit loss limit.

"Mixed" is the bet selection I flat bet with. I tried it here using OG.


BPBBBBPBPBPPPPPPBPBPBBBPBBPPBBPPBPBPPPPPPPPPPB

Betting P only, ended +13 units.  Max bet 5 units. Lowest BR was -6 units
Betting B only, ended -22 units.  Max bet 4 units. Lowest BR was - 25 units.
Mixed, ended +14 . Max bet 6 units. Low BR was -4.


PBBPPPBBPPBBPPBPBPPPBPPPBPPBPBPPBPBPBPBBPPPBPBPBPBPPPPPBBBBBPPBPPB

Betting only P, ended +18 units. Max bet was 2 units.  Lowest BR was -1 unit.
Betting only B, ended -25 units.  Max bet 23 units.  Lowest BR was -25 units.
Mixed ended +17. Max bet 11 units.  Lowest BR was -22 units.


PBBBPPBBPBBPBPBPBPBBBBBBPBBBBBBBPPBBPPBPPBBBBBPPPBPPBBBBPBPPBPPPBBPPPPBB

Betting only P, ended -25 units. Max bet 1 unit.  Lowest BR was -25 units.
Betting only B, ended +22 units.  Max bet 4 units.  Lowest BR was -1 unit
Mixed ended -25 units. Max bet 11 units.  Lowest BR was -25 units.


PBBBBBPBBPPBBBPPPBPPBBBPBPBPPPBPBBBBPPPPBBBPPBBPPBPPBPBPPPPPBPPP

Betting only P, ended +16 units.  Max bet 6 units.  Lowest BR was -14 units.
Betting only B, ended -18 units.  Max bet 5 units. Lowest BR was -18 units.
Mixed ended -4 units. Max bet 7 units.  Lowest BR was -11 units.


BPBPPPBBPPPPBPBBBPPPPPBPBBPPBBPPBBBPBBBPPBPBPBPBPBBBPBPBB

Betting only P, ended -4 units.  Max bet 6 units. Lowest BR was -4 units.
Betting only B, ended +9 units. Max bet 5 units.  Lowest BR was -7 units.
Mixed ended +13 units. Max bet 4 units.  lowest BR was -3 units.

Totals after five shoes:

Ended +18 units betting P only, with a 25 unit loss limit.  If no loss limit, would have lost 30 units.  If flat bet P only would be +11.

Ended -30 units betting B only with a 25 unit loss limit. If no loss limit, would have lost 80 units.  If flat bet B, would be -11 units.

Ended+15 units betting Mixed, with a 25 unit loss limit. If no loss limit, would have been +1 unit.  If flat bet Mixed, would be +19 units.
2
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
« Last post by alrelax on Today at 06:51:45 pm »
Simply unbelievable, but in so many ways, believable.  Main street with 4 lanes of traffic, two each way.  Side cross street intersects with the main street.  Traffic light is there.  Light red for the side street and green on the main road.  Traffic is there, not too busy, smaller city.  Lady on the side street going to make a right hand turn at the light and onto Main Street.  She has her phone in her left hand and she is texting or something with her right.  She slows up at the light and turns right, does not even look at the traffic coming at her.  The first car closest to her jams on their brakes but the car in the second lane collides with her as she turned right and immediately crossed the lane she was supposed to turn into and then signal left and switch lanes. 

I see it all the time where the cross street turns and the person never even merges into the lane they are supposed to be in, just crosses it to get to the further over lane. 

She winds up getting a ticket for failure to stop, improper turn, improper lane change, distracted driving and expired registration.

What a champ!   
3
A person needs tools to sit down and play baccarat.  A buy in and physical presence at a casino, is not enough to gain any type of advantage.  The same as a mechanic in an automotive repair shop.  He has tools, meaning wrenches, screwdrivers, ratchets and sockets, hammers and numerous other devices.  But he also needs knowledge, experience and assistance.  Without it all, his performance will not be as good as those that have it.  Merely turning a wrench without any type of guidance or knowledge, for example in replacing a part of how tight and what poundage of torque is required for the bolts that hold on certain parts, will sacrifice the work he just performed, etc.  Get the picture?

Three things I would like to discuss this morning in relation to the player?s frame-of-mind and decision-making process at the table.  Allocation, Decision making too late and the so-called psychological cushion others are talking about on various websites that they claim is so valuable.

Allocation. To me allocation is extremely important.  Allocation is the amount you are willing to risk gaining a win or suffer a loss.  Either way, there will be a result.  Results effect how your subsequent wagering process will be affected.  Many say, that they sit there without regards to anything or any event and they withdraw themselves from the emotional aspect of the game.  Bull stuff with capitals.  I cannot believe that or feed into that.  While writing that sounds ideal and pretty good, but I do not think it applies well and is carried out in strict force consistently. 

My method of allocation is dependent upon what my buy in is, not my wins or my losses.  Not the amount I am attempting to recoup or anything that happened in other sessions, days, weeks, months or years prior.  It is strictly limited to the instant time I am wagering.  I work like this.  Say I have $1,000.00 in front of me from my buy in.  I might wager $75.00 to $150.00 on my first wager.  Why?  Because in my mind and experience, I already know that if I lose 6 or 7 wagers straight, it is not my day at the tables.  Second, my buy in is risk and not a psychological cushion that governs my stop loss with a known part of it never going to be played.  All that does is stress the player out because he has less funds available to him and he recalculates subconsciously anyway, confusing him and giving him a false hope.  More on that later. 

I want my wins to add up and I want more than anything to wager and have the casinos money rather than my risk capital.  But my mind stays clear and is set to lose my buy in.  The same as a trip.  XYZ for gas, XYZ for food, XYZ for motels, XYZ for entertainment, XYZ for shopping, XYZ for anything I require and want and a bit extra.  Same at the casino, no different.  Why bring $500.00 if you are going to say you can only spend $200.00.  If that is the case, bring the $200.00 and that is it.  Clear and concise, rather than the fudging on the math and attempt to manipulate your psychological frame of mind. 

So, I wager $125.00 and lose.  I wager another $125.00 and win.  Again, the allocation question must come to mind before decision making takes place as far as what to wager on, progression, flat betting, wait it out, etc. What are you going to do with that $125.00 won?  Myself, I would like to take $75.00 and put it in my buy in and take the other $50.00 and put it in my pocket.  Knowing my skim off the win will go towards a smaller stash starting in my pocket before I get to my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management Method I love so much.  But the beginning of play is crucial to me because of the emotional aspect and staying away from false-positives.   I want $400.00 or so in my pocket that has nothing to do with my buy in or play.  I do not want to get over confident or have any kind of crutch that might alter my way of thinking.  Sitting with more chips in front of me that I won or cannot spend, is dangerous, my mind would tend to focus on that, rather than the game itself.  Then I would turn into protecting and abiding by what I have to do rather than what I should do. 

Say my next wager was $200.00 and I lost.  Fine, move on.  Say my following wager was $150.00 and I won.  I would put it all in my buy in.  Say my next wager was $300.00 and I won.  I would take $125.00 and add it to my pocket and put the $175.00 win and the bet back in my buy in stack.  I would continue in whatever consistency I was wagering and attempt to get around 50% of my original buy in, back in my pocket and a bit more added to my stack in front of me.  Then I would move into some type of true positive progression of 1-3-2-6 or 1-1-3-6-12, etc.  I need to be playing with the casino?s money for a true clear mind and a chance to double, triple, 10-fold or 40-fold my buy in.  Yes, some buy ins will be totally lost, but they are fractions of my bank roll and at least for the past minimum of 10 years, I have not lost my bank roll without replenishing it from a subsequent win later after the loss.  My buy in is an allocation of my bank roll, not my bank roll at risk for each session. 

What works for me, may not in anyway work for you.  But rather than sit there and claim you have a 10 unit buy in and you will wager only until you lose 3 or 4 units is not the way I play or believe anyone can prosper at this game.  I tend more to double or triple a buy in and every so often pounce on it, which will allow me to realize a 20-50 times buy in win.  I could never do that with a set win stop and loss stop.  I have tried and I already discovered that years ago back in Atlantic City and Eastern Connecticut over hundreds and hundreds of trips. 

The same with my 1/3rd Money Management Method, it is an allocation.  Say I just won $2,000.00.  $700.00 would go to my buy in stack, $700.00 in my pocket for absolute cash out and not going back towards gambling ever, and the other $600.00 maybe in reserve for a decision to be made if I lose quickly thereafter? 

To me, that is why allocation is very important and necessary.  Simply stacking the wins up in front of you will not be the answer, I promise you.  Simply putting them in your pocket, likewise, will not be the answer as well.  You have no satisfaction if you do the latter. 

Decision making too late. I found this to be one of the most harmful things to a person sitting at the table playing.  You will become emotional inside and you will have your frame of mind altered.  Do not jump on a run when it is 5 or 7 repeated wins already out there.  Especially if you were on the other side.  More times than not, that run will end and that is the point your emotions will hurt and hurt you tremendously.  The other night when I had the shoe started out of the gate with the 7 Players and one Banker, One Player, One Banker and then 12 straight Players, is a perfect example.  The start of a shoe, most were on the Banker.  Player won.  They stayed on the Banker and some doubled up or tripled up.  Then Player again.  Then the war was on.  After like 5 or 6 Players, some switched sides and it was short lived, the new loss that they never really wanted to wager on and strictly looking to recoup their money, fails them and their insides are now upside down.  Then when the 12 run Players came, war was on big time. 

A $200.00 beginning wager on that 12 Player streak that was a small part of the win money from the 7 Player streak a few hands before, gives the person the power to overpower the shoe.  Not change the shoe, just overpower it.  There is a difference and a very large difference.  Call it hocus pokus, it is all good.  I am talking about reality here, not fantasy, dreams or theory. 

But again, allocation will come into play, not a straight continued positive progression, unless you are talking about a 1-1-3 and then stop.  Yes, a win but a grind.  I do not play that way when it is a give me easy money time.  I rather pounce on it with all win money and keep winning and win large and then go back to my same level and plateau prior to the win, once the win stops.  If I have a 4 or 8 unit win stop, I will never have realized the wins I had playing this game. 

Decision making effects everything in your continued wagers.  Be careful, you cannot remove yourself from the game in most situations.  If you do, you will be affected without being able to realize the larger wins when the opportunity is there and needs to be taken advantage of.  This has the same to do with following other players that are winning, wagering against those other players that are losing, telling yourself anything must happen because of something that already happened or did not happen.  All those things.  The highest majority of all of those situations will be too late, sure there might be the false positive ones that would encourage you to continue doing those type of things, but all they do is add to your losses, confusion and misalignment with the game itself. 

Align yourself with the game, with the shoe and with your knowledge.  There is a time and place to align yourself with other players or outside influences, but not every hand or with any consistency. 

The so-called psychological cushion.  Please take another look at that one.  If you are a player that believes this hype, you are gullible.  There is no real reason to bring $400 or $500 if you are saying you can only lose or will limit yourself to a $100 or $200 loss.  You will not do it, period.  If so, bring only the $100 or $200 or whatever number the loss figure can be, that you are willing to lose.  The extra amount on the table will only influence you and give you false positives and alter your mind as I have already mentioned here.  I do not care what the figures are.  IMO, you must have a buy in that is a portion of your bank roll and that buy in is strictly risk capital being allocated. 

If you blow through your bank roll and never got to replenish it with wins from your allocated playing results, something is really wrong with your wagering, parlays, money management method and/or your wagering beliefs and how long or how much you play the game.     

Summation. The power and the wholehearted beliefs in the positive results will allow you to be a better player rather than the longer and longer and larger and larger mentality that will only add to the casino?s bottom line and allow them to legally take your money with a smile.

Hell, guys let me sum it all up for you.  Here.  My host at one of the local casinos in my region gives me free hotel rooms, free food, free comps at the gift shop, free promo chips and free food court comps for just about anything I want.  If they are in proportion to my play with a bit of discretion of course by either the host or the senior floor person on duty.  But those free things, comps, are an allocation of my play, not my wins or my losses.  Yes, large wins and large losses are guidelines for those personnel to go outside of their normal computer-generated comp guidelines which is something like 4 hours of play, at any certain level of wagering, divided by their game hold ratio, will generate XYZ $ of comp.  But that is also an allocation as to your play.  Playing is the same as being rated, the bottom line is, "Let's see what happens". 

Back to my coffee, notes, and opening a package of Twinkies.  Later.
4
Forex Forum / Re: Forex News from InstaForex
« Last post by InstaForex Gertrude on Today at 05:20:52 am »
The yen got wings, next stop $ 108.5

The fall of the yield curve below zero for the first time since 2007 stirred up the financial markets. The indicator, showing the difference between 10 and 3-year treasuries, is a reliable harbinger of a recession with a time lag of 12-18 months. Its inversion pushed players to active sales of shares. The losses of the S & P 500 amounted to 1.5%, and two new topics appeared on the market, fueling traders' interest in protective assets, such as the yen.

The sharp change in the rate of the Federal Reserve at the beginning of the year contributed to the rapid rally of US stock indices. The stock market prepared to close the quarter with the best result in nearly 30 years. However, it looks unnatural when macroeconomic statistics deteriorate and stocks rise. The growth of the US economy in the first quarter, will slowdown to less than 1% according to estimates of the leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed. hus, Morgan Stanley suspects that October-December GDP may be adjusted from 2.6% to 1.8% in quarterly terms. Divergence between economic reports and stock indicators cannot last forever.

The situation is similar throughout the world. Thus, the index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector of China, Japan, and the eurozone is below the critical level - 50, which indicates a slowdown in global GDP growth. Meanwhile, European stocks are ahead of their American counterparts, and the global MSCI is increasing. The naked eye can see that the market is overheated, which means it's time to pay attention to the safe haven assets. A 1.5% increase in the Japanese yen last week is a further evidence of this.

The national currency of Japan was under the "press" for quite some time. Its growth was hindered by such factors as high risk appetite, low rates of the world debt market and volatility. Inversion of the US yield curve provoked carry-traders to close positions, increased demand for funding currencies, and also caused the USDJPY rate to depreciate.

Among the most obvious fears of the market is the excessively "soft" position of the Fed. There was a too sharp change of tone. In December, the regulator allowed three series of rate increases, and now it does not plan any policy tightening. Perhaps, officials of the regulator do not agree on something, for example, a speedy recession. That is why the yield curve and went into the red zone.

Safe haven assets, as well as the yen, will be supported by the growing risks of the subsequent correction of the S & P 500 and increased volatility. The situation is heightened by rumors about Theresa May's resignation and the possible escalation of trade conflicts. Thus, the USDJPY pair may well move to the level of $ 108.5.

News are provided by
InstaForex
.

5
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Today at 04:02:12 am »
Nice reply Al. Thanks.

It's quite known that I'm hardly working to set up a no brainer mechanical method capable to get the best of it no matter how whimsically will get the hands distribution.

Many shoes are not playable at all just for the reasons Al outlined in his several posts.

This as sh.it tends to come out in clusters than being balanced in subsequent portions of the shoe.
As well as good outcomes can be detected right at the start.

Into a finite and dependent model, probability works by various degrees and whereas some levels are "unlikely" reached, our best move is to not play at all.

Notice that imo we do not want to follow "unlikely" lines, we just want to get rid of them.

Baccarat is a game of balancements and deviations, whenever a given deviation is "due" we follow it, whenever is harshly going against the "expected" (it's sufficent to lose 2 bets in a row) we better wait the next shoe.

Imo never ever try to adhere at an "unlikely" distribution as it's more inclined to form difficult detectable results.

It's like poker where to get an edge you have to fold some possible best hands.

as.
 




 

 


 





 

 


6
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« Last post by alrelax on Today at 03:22:37 am »
Absolutely spot on, no matter which way you think or desire.

I know in that shoe I posted last night of 23 or so players against he 2 Bankers out there in the very beginning of the shoe, winning large money compared to a relatively small buy in, that if I continued playing, most of it--if not all of it would have gone back to the casino.  Why would someone wager tens of thousands of dollars against what was happening, versus the same amount of those very same wagers with what was happening? Well, IMO, insight, knowledge, experience, desires, expectations, frame of mind, beliefs, false positives overruling and many other things. 

People would come on here and say, wait a second Alrelax, the only way it would have gone back to the casino is if you were foolish, did not apply money management and got unlucky.  Nope, wrong.  Within one or two shoes it would have went back or the highest majority of the win would have anyway.

Sorry, I have been gambling too long.  It was a great win with hundreds of times greater than the buy in.  Leave, be gone a few days, reset and back to my same LEVEL and PLATEAU, I normally wager at in this area and types of casinos I play at. 

THe other people playing, win and win and then they fall because they attempt everything AsymB just outlined.  Hocus Pokus or whatever you want to label it, the numbers and statistics will not consistently hold up at the bac table, day in and day out, grind or pounce on it.  You cannot win and win and win and continue any type of win on a solid consistent basis.  No matter is that is one unit or 100 units each game/shoe. 

If you merge numerous factors of my psych detailed explanations along with numerous factors of what AsymB talks about, you will start to get a clearer picture of how to prevail at bac with insight and understanding, IMO.  There are other members that do contribute and know plenty as well, I am just highlighting what I just read with what I just did as well last night.

I hope this makes sense, to me it does but then again maybe I am just waving that magical wand that Mickey Mouse loaned me from Disney World and I am screaming the words hocus pokus? Maybe, huh?  I do not know.   
7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Today at 03:06:53 am »
Summarizing, the main feature why bac can be beaten is because certain spots can't be missed, meaning that probability plays a huge and decisive role in that.

Of course such feature cannot be theorized whether a perfect random world is working, otherwise I have to put into the trash bin all the math involved.
And I can't do this.

as. 

 
 
8
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Today at 02:56:44 am »
Baccarat provides an important feature many times we forget about.
The casino's winning probability cannot be less than 50% unless bets are placed on Banker side.
Yet the economical return favors casino every bet we'll make.

Thus even if we're the world champion geniuses of bet selection, we are still playing a 48.94% or 48.76% proposition on our winning probability unit wager.

The only way one could lose only 1.06% or 1.24% or an average  mix of two of the total money wagered is by flat betting.
It doesn't matter which kind of selection one utilizes, by flat betting one is math expected to lose from 1.06% to 1.24% of his/her total bets.

Actually most bac players want to recover losses by increasing the bets, but they forget that the more they'll increase the wagers better are the opportunities to lose everything.
The same is about increasing the wagers when positive streaks seem to come out.

There's no one single possibility in the world that after a decent trial of shoes one can get the best of it by increasing the wagers unless certain "battles" provide a very low variance impact.

Say we have found an astonishing -4 +4 random walk working onto two opposite situations.
We know that when the +4 level is reached an unlikely still possible 8 losing streak is going to happen (that is a shifting force going toward -4 point). Are we going to bet?
No fkng way.
The same about a +3 or +2 random walk position.

We do not want to raise our bets to win just one fkng lousy unit, we want to get the best of it by increasing the probability to get one unit profit immediately or, at least, after two bets.

Say we are going to join an HS table after forming a bet selection site team, where each member put $5000 at risk . Our standard unit will be $10.000 and the maximum wager on that table is $20.000.
Our bankroll is $200.000, that is 20 units. That is 40 members.
Our goal will be to win just one unit after 3-4 shoes dealt, so every member will get $250 and the probability to lose the entire 20 bets for each player is very close to zero. Say it's zero.
In fact the probability to win one unit after 3-4 shoes dealt is 99.999%.

Are you going to join such team or do you think you'll get a better edge?

I know many players tell you they'll get a better edge but they are deadly wrong.

We do want to lower the variance at most and, by the way, nobody has shown to you that a given method can get the best of it by such "low" win rate.

Still you can't be wrong about this "silly" method, it's just a matter of waiting the right opportunities to come along.

And actually it's what we do, putting at risk 20 units to win just one unit after 3-4 shoes dealt by 99.999% accuracy.

Imo one needs to risk a relatively huge bankroll to win something after a given period of time, think that casinos are going to put at risk virtually infinite bankrolls to win our miserable buy-ins.

Guess what casinos think when we're constantly betting $100 or $300 (EV- situations) and suddendly we're raising the bets to $10.000 where our EV will be positive.
They'll think we are i.diots, but they'll fear our bets as they need 100 or 33.3 wrong bets to balance our previous no edge wagers.
Situations that cannot come along.

as.   





 







     
 





 
 

 
9
Baccarat Forum / Re: Half dozen thoughts on wagering
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Yesterday at 08:48:15 pm »
Al is absolutely correct.
Bead plate road contains green spots referring to ties.
Notice that every other derived road do not classify ties.

as. 

10
Baccarat Forum / Re: Half dozen thoughts on wagering
« Last post by Jimske on Yesterday at 08:28:01 pm »
I stand corrected, Al.  I didn't look at the link much, just posted it since I don't use the Roads.  But my statement remains true that the Bead is the same as the Big, it just runs the patterns vertically. 

Whatever, continue on!














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