08 Recent Posts

BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Recent Posts

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 10 Next
1
Alrelax's Blog / July 3rd Shoe. Players and the 1+4 Side Parlay detailed
« Last post by alrelax on Today at 01:39:33 pm »
(Will post a picture of the casino board later tonight, cannot download now.)

Bankers, out of the 10 banker hands five were Naturals, three were 7's beating the players 6's and two other ones, the third card for the player reduced the player to 0 and the bank won with a five or six I think each of the times. The bank was never really strong except when they had a natural. The six players on hands 13,14, 17, 18, 20 and 21 were all extremely strong player hands, bringing up players third card to total 8 and 9's or the 3rd banker card reducing the bank to  0 or 1, etc., on those hands.

Hands 20 and 21 would be where the player had a 5 and the banker had a 6 or a 7 and the player draws a 3 or a 4 both times. Then all the players were something like that. Banker looked good almost every time with the initial 2 card draw, but players third card killed the bank almost every one of those times.

Regarding the player getting strong and would continue strong to build those streaks, no we didn't know they were coming but what we sensed and seen, was the continual third card presentment that made the players strong every single time without Naturals and prior to the twice 'mini' player streaks, where 13 players were presented to 1 banker.  So when that third player came along, myself and the people that I was with just stacked it up on the player and decided to do the 1 + 4 Side Parlay Wager that I've talked about in the past that is part of our money management method.  And the best thing being, none of our buy in amounts we're at risk at all come that third player wager, because we were doing our 1 + 4.

B (NAT)
P (NAT)
T
P
B (NAT)
P
B
P (NAT) P
B (NAT) B B (NAT)
P P T
B
P P
B (NAT)
P P P P P P T P
B
P P P T P (NAT) P P
B

We got to complete our 1 + 4 Parlay Side Wagers with the first of each 1 + 4 Parlay was with the previous wager's win money, that is the key of course.  We decided to do after that first third player and that's what this game is all about, we seen the opportunity and we capitalized on it and we were not continuously wagering on something that we desired as most all do with trending and pattern wagering.
2
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by RickK on June 30, 2020, 11:55:19 am »
"If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr."

as, could you provide an explanation to help understand what this means ?...thanks in advance
3
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2020, 11:25:40 pm »
Think about math percentages first.

If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr.

Asym hands that went "wrong" for B side just endorse the probability to get sym hands on the very next outcome as the probability to get back to back asym hands is distant. We surely do not want to wager a side being payed 0.95:1 than 1:1.

By the same way of thinking, a B natural is going to produce a way lesser impact than the same P natural.

Next time we'll consider naturals.

as.
4
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2020, 10:13:35 pm »
Mathematically our long term EV is in direct relationship between asym and sym betting ranges.

For example, say a portion of the shoe presents eight straight sym hands and the actual outcomes of those sym hands are producing an eight Banker streak.
If we were betting Banker each hand belonging to this streak we may think to be lucky or geniuses. Actually we are severely losing money.
On the other hand, the same sym 8-hand pattern could form a Player streak of the same lenght and now a steady Player betting cannot get us other than a zero negative edge at least.

Since the probability to get one of the possible 256 different BP patterns on those sym situations remains the same, it's quite obvious that there's no point to bet Banker at any of those eight sym hands.

Thus the Banker side should be wagered just about the probability to form or not an asym hand among a very restricted range of hands.
This one is the only wise math approach working itlr as the math advantage must overcome the negative HE.

We should remember again that most asym hands edge comes from 5s and 4s Banker initial points and, at a lesser degree. from 3s.

Think that many Banker 5s and 4s initial points will cross standing/natural Player situations, therefore transforming potential shifted events (that is asym hands) into mere symmetrical circumstances.

In some way we could infer that the probability to form a 4 or 5 Banker initial point is somewhat dependent about the previous situations and we should always be focused about the mere asym/sym probability.
Let's say that as long as no 4 or 5 (and, at a lesser degree a 3 point) Banker initial point will be formed, we are betting a close to zero negative edge game when wagering P side.

In any case, we want to add a further parameter, that is how asym hands went in our shoe.

Say we know for sure that the actual shoe is presenting such sequence (S= symmetrical hands and N= non symmetrical hands):

S-S-S-S-N-S-N-S-S-S-S-N-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S

The are no other perfect plays than wagering Banker at hands #5, #7, #12, #13, #20, #28, #42, #64.
For now we cannot care less about the real BP outcomes, after all the winning probability of such sequence is a long math proposition of 0.5 (S) and 0.5793 (N) events.
Quite likely not every N spot will form a Banker hand, not mentioning that at S spots everything will be possible.

Now let's compare the same deck N or S situations with the new distribution.
Of course the probability to get the exact N or S distribution will be zero and, by an obvious higher degree, the same results.

Nonetheless, the clustering N or S effect will seem to remain the same as cards tend not to be properly shuffled.

It's like playing a game where we might be very very slight favored or hugely favored at various degrees, totally getting rid of the potential situation to find ourselves facing the exact counterparts.

as. 
5
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2020, 07:52:49 pm »
My bad.
Thanks Al and sorry Rickk and everyone.
After posting the shoe everything appeared correct on my screen.

Let's try again with a simpler form:

B
P
BB
PP
BB
PP
B
P
B
P
B
P
BB
PPPPPPPPP
B
P
B
P
B
PP
BB
PP
BBB
PPP
BB
P
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
PPPPP
B
P
BB
P
BBBBBB
PPP


as.
6
General Discussion / Re: The way to beat the ECs
« Last post by jsintl on June 24, 2020, 01:45:26 pm »
Hello!

This is an old thread which I found very interesting.

I would like to ask members who are playing this method with success with your comments.

Thanks in advance.
7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by RickK on June 23, 2020, 03:01:51 pm »
Now back to the more important issue, what are we looking for in terms of asym hands, naturals, hands bet/won, etc. ? ...the post is showing B/P hand results, but not indicating where or when any of these other occurrences took place...
8
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by RickK on June 23, 2020, 02:37:34 pm »
Ok...as mentioned in my first post on this issue, I was assuming that the first "row" on Asym's post was the "heading" of a scorecard (or Big Road) of a shoe...it apparently is the first actual "result" of an event..apologize for the confusion......
..
9
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by alrelax on June 23, 2020, 01:03:07 pm »
Must be your screen, I don't see any empty columns, it's an exact copy of a Big Road.
10
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by RickK on June 23, 2020, 12:59:13 pm »
Alrelax...what you've described is pretty standard..maybe it's my screen, but what I was referring to are the blank "columns"...in the first 10 "event columns" there are 2 blank, 1 B, 1 P, 1 B, 1 P, then 4 blank..Big Road does not have blank or empty columns between events..just wondering if that is a typo or if it meant something..
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 10 Next