Here is one for the old school bac players that used to play on the original two sided tables, with the 2 bankers seated and the casino person standing up calling the cards, and a floor supervisor on each end of the table.  This was also the type of table where each person actually held the shoe and dealt the cards, kept the shoe as long as the shoe was producing banker winning hands and pass the shoe counterclockwise after the shoe made a winning player hand.

Oh seen it all.  People eat a card, rip up cards, throw bad hands, even the Casino movie bj scene with Joe Pesci where he kept throwing the cards at the dealer telling dealer to give them to his mom and sister or something like that.  Remember this one large player back at Ballys Grand in AC, needed anything but a face or 10 and we would have all won the hand. 

You know, back then smoking cigar, Italian biz owner of some type from NYC etc. 

Anyways he peeks at the card.  Looks at everyone.  We all know it has to be a face card.  He looks at bankers seated, (don't forget we actually had the shoe not the casino personnel). Looks at the banker seated and throws the card at him, like frisbee style and said, here you take the lesbian (it was a queen of course) and he immediately pulls another card.  Gets a number card and slams it down,  said, see that-we won.

Floor person on his side of the table reached over and slid the shoe into the middle of the table and then after previous hand was all collected up,  played out the next hand as a dead hand,  she told him,  one more chance then your done. 

He gave some kind of monologue about his wife and X wives all telling him the same sh*t.  He turns to the floor person standing on his side of the table and flaps his fingers into his thumb like a good 10 times .  She just ignored him.

But lol, those were the days. 

Bitcoin Surpassed $100k + rates and naysayers kept weeping. It is still not too late to enter into Bitcoin. The best price so far, is yet to come and most likely the first quarter of 2025 will see that. A good money management could yield even better from it despite the ups and downs it may offer, time to time.

I will breakdown what happened and our way of successfully Wagering them. A few of us did extremely well, the rest either pushed or eventually lost their funds. I'm not armchair quarterbacking these after the fact. I will lay out our reasonings and decisions as they basically happened best I can from my notes.

I will do that starting tomorrow.

Most part of long term successful players (there aren't many, of course) treat baccarat as a game filled of huge uncertainty. No news.

The most important consequence, verified by long term data, is that very few hands are able to erase and invert the HE.

Obviously in the short term and due to the almost 50/50 nature of the game, one could be ahead for several sessions thinking to be a kind of genius or, simply, because he/she was kissed by luck.

Basically long term successful players play baccarat as a relatively "finite" infinite situations, meaning that each shoe (the finite part) will represent infinitely by the same general features displayed after having dissected a large amount of data.

Thus they don't hope for, they just "fear" that the devised betting spot won't belong to the more likely category assessed by running the same situation the more they could.

In any EV- game, the paramount goal remains to preserve the bankroll and not trying to be ahead at all costs, therefore all intermediate winning/losing situations must get the least deviations.

After all and after a fair amount of shoes played, baccarat might concede us just a tiny amount of possible EV+ hands that shouldn't be wasted by betting too many hands.

The idea that every hand is EV- as math dictates so is a total fkng bigh.ornsh.it, it's just a matter of time and proper betting selection to disprove that.


Consider the previous post about 2-3 streaks.
Suppose we have some fictional players betting for us: all of them will wager toward C-C vs a C-I pattern.

Player #1 whenever a C shows up will wager toward another C then stops.

Player #2 whenever a C-I-C shows up will wager toward another C then stops.

Player #3 whenever a x-I-I shows up will wager toward a C then stops.

Results (before vig for simplicity).

Player #1: +41 units (assuming C=+1 and I=-3)

Player #2: -11 units

Player #3: +8 units. 

In this example it seems that Player #1 got the best results, Player #3 did fare fairly and Player #2 was the losing one.
Actually we shouldn't care which player got the best results, itlr cumulatively all three players got us a profit.


I'll make another example about asymmetrical/symmetrical results considered by our random walk C/I patterns. Here's asymmetrical patterns distribution:

C-C-I-C

C-I

I-C-I-C-C

C-C-C

C-C-I

C-I-C

C-C

C-C-C

I-C

C-I-I-C

C

I-I-C-I

I-C-C

C-C-C

C-C-C

C-C-C

C-I-C-I-C

C-C

C

C-C-I-C-C

C-C-I

I-I-C-C

I-I-I-C

C-C

I-C-C-C

I-C

C-C-I

C-C

C-C-I

C-I-C-I

C-C-C

C-C-C

I-C-C-I-C-C

C-C

C-C

I-C-C-C

C-C-C

C-I-C

I-C-C-C

C-C

C-C-C

C-C

C-C-I

C-C-C-I

I-C-I-C-I

C-C

C-I-C

C-I-C-C

C-C

C-C-C-C

I-C-C

C-C-C

C-C-C-I-C

C-C

C-I-C-C

C-C-C

C-C

C-C-C

C-C-C-C

I-C-C

C-C-I

C-C-C

C-I-C

I-I-C-C

I-C-I-C

C-I

C-C-C

C-C

C-C-I

I-C-C

C-C-I-I

I-C-C-I

C-C-C

I-C-C

C-C-I-C

I-C-C-I-C

I-I-I-I

C-C

C-C-C-I

C-C

I-C-C

I-C

C-C

C-I-I-C-C

C-I-C-I

C

C-C-C

C-C-C

C-C

C-C-C

C-C-I-C

C-C-I-C-C

C-C

C-C-C

C-C-C

I-C-C

I-C-C

C-C-C-C

C-C-I-I

C-C-C

C-C

I-I-C

C-C-C

I-C-I

I-C-C

C-C

I-C-C

C-I-I-I-I-C

C-I-I-C

C-C-C

C-I-C

I-C-I-I-C

C-C-I-C

C-C

C-I-C-C-C

C-I-C-C

I-C-I-I-C

I-I-I-C

C-I-C

C-C-I

C

I-C-I-C

C-I-I-C

I-C-C

I-C-C-C-I

I-C-C

C-C-C

C-C-C

C-C-C

C-C

C-C

I-C

C-C-C-C

C

C-C

C-C-C

I-C-C-I-I

C-C-C

C-C

I-C-I-C-C

C-C-I-C

C-C-C

C-C-C-C

C-C-C-C

C-C-C-I

I-I-C-I-C-C

I-C-C-C

C-C-C

C-C-I

C-C-C

C-C-I-C

C-C-C

C-I-C

C-C-C-I

C-C

Player#1 betting C-C vs C-I = +20

Player#2 betting C after C-I-C = -2

Player#3: betting C after x-I-I = -1

We could even insert a fourth Player betting toward C after a single I: = +10

Now symmetrical spots (C= clustered and I=isolated)

I-I-I-C

I

I-I-C-I

C-I

C-I

C-I

I-C

C-I

I-I

I-I-I-I

C-I-I

I-C

I-C

I-I-I

I-C

C-I-C-I

I

C-I-I-I

I-I-I

I-I-I-C

I-I-I-I-C

I-C

I-I-I-I

I-I-C

C-C-I

I-C

I-I-I

I-I-I-I-C

I-I

I-C

C-I-I-I-I

I

I-I

I-C-I

C-C

C-I

I-I-I-I-C

I-I

I-I

I-C

I-I

I-I-C-I

I-C-I-I-C

C

I-C

I-I-I-

I

C-I-I

C-I-C

I-I-I

I-C-I-I

C-I

I-I-I-I-C

I-I-C
I-I

I-I

I-I-I-C

C-I-C

I-I-C

I-I

I-I-C

C-I-I

C-C-I

C

I-I

I-C-I

C-I-C

I-I-I

I-I-I-C

C-I-C-I

I-I-
I-I

I-I-C

I-I-I

I-I-C-I

I-C-I-I

I

I-I-I-I

I

I-I

I

I-I

I-I-I-I

I-C-C-C

C

I-I

I-C

I

I-I-I

I-C-I

I-I-I-I-C

I

I-C-I-I

I-I

I-C-I

I-I

I-I-C

I-I-I-I

I-I

I-I-C

I-C

I-I-C

C-I-C

I-I

I

I-I-C

I-C-I-I-I

I-I-I

C-I

I-C

I-I-I-I

I-I-C-I

C

I-I-I-I

I-I-I

C-I-I-I

I-C-I

I-I

I-I-C

I

I-I-C

I-I-C

I-I

I-I-I-I

C-C

I-I

I-C

C-C

C

I-C

C

I-I-C

C

I

I-I

I-C-I-I-I

C-I

C

I-I-I-C-I

I-I-I-C

I-I

I-C-I

I-I-I

I

C-C

I-C-I-I-I-I

C-I-C-I

I-I

I-I-C

I-I

I-I-I

I-I

C-I

C-C-I

C-C

The average symmetrical patterns distribution explains why bac players keep losing and at the same time why casinos keep collecting huge profits by exploiting one of the numerous human flaws regarding gambling.

The HE is just an addendum, it's not the main cause why this game seems to be so unbeatable.

Moreover we could deeply investigate how long any symmetrical "C" will more likely last on average, now the advantage will be high as heaven.

See you in a couple of days.

as.

Well it appears the sandwich which got its name from The 4th Earl of Sandwich, has relation to developing it for snacking at the gaming table. 

"Then in the early 1770s, the French travel writer Pierre-Jean Grosley published a gossipy and satirical book called A Tour to London; Or New Observations on England and its Inhabitants. In it, Grosely described a scene at a gambling table:"

https://www.history.com/news/sandwich-inventor-john-montagu-earl-of-sandwich

From Wiki:  The word "sandwich" appears, referring to a certain roast beef sandwich in England

Portrait of the Earl of Sandwich by Thomas Gainsborough, 1783, after whom the sandwich is named. Initially perceived as food that men shared while gaming and drinking at night, the sandwich slowly began appearing in polite society as a late-night meal among the aristocracy. The sandwich is named after John Montagu, 4th Earl of Sandwich, an eighteenth-century English aristocrat.[8][9] It is commonly said that Lord Sandwich, during long sessions of cribbage and other card games at public gambling houses, would order his valet to bring him roast beef between two pieces of toasted bread.[9] He was fond of this form of food because it allowed him to continue gambling while eating, without the need for a fork, and without getting his cards greasy from eating meat with his bare hands. The dish then grew in popularity in London, and Sandwich's name became associated with it.[8] The rumour in its familiar form appeared in Pierre-Jean Grosley's Londres (Neuchâtel, 1770), translated as A Tour to London in 1772;[15] Grosley's impressions had been formed during a year in London in 1765. An alternative is provided by Sandwich's biographer, N. A. M. Rodger, who suggests Sandwich's commitments to the Navy, and to politics and the arts, mean the first sandwich was more likely to have been consumed at his desk.

The sandwich's popularity in Spain and England increased dramatically during the nineteenth century, when the rise of industrial society and the working classes made fast, portable, and inexpensive meals essential.[16] In London, for example, at least seventy street vendors were selling ham sandwiches by 1850; during that decade sandwich bars also became an important form of eating establishment in western Holland, typically serving liver and salt beef sandwiches.

In the United States, the sandwich was first promoted as an elaborate meal at supper. By the early 20th century, as bread became a staple of the American diet, the sandwich became the same kind of popular, quick meal as was already widespread in the Mediterranean.

In order to win we must let go a lot of hands.

Even by selecting at most our betting spots, we'll 100% have to endure harsh negative situations as it's the normal flow of the game.

We can't control most aspects of the variance even by playing with an advantage.

Best example to provide is a virtual game where Banker is payed 1:1 at all situations, so giving us a 1.36% math advantage.
It's very likely that despite of this edge, many players (say most players) will crash sooner or later whenever Player loaded consecutive shoes will happen.

Baccarat shoes are exploitable by rigid and measurable values extracted by the average card distribution of any shoe dealt. Only a software can do that, yet we can do a lot by approximating what the actual shoe is doing in relationship of what an average shoe looks like.

If something would be consistent for long without a careful assessment, the game wouldn't exist.

Say that players quit the table as winners just by "accident" and as losers by "rule".

More later

as.

OMG, gotta love it!  Might just be a touch of the old school mob, huh?  You guys have a few weeks to rectify a situation you committed, can't undo the situation as it's a done deal, but if you pay us what we were supposed to have received up front on fees and permitting charges, you guys are good to go.

"The city sent a notice to the Three Affiliated Tribes, saying it has until January 6 to file and purchase the necessary permits or face legal action."


I Love It!  Beautiful!  Wonder when they show up at the Las Vegas/Clark County Building Department after the funds are paid if the city/county has the cigars and cognac brought out? 


https://www.kxnet.com/news/top-stories/three-affiliated-tribes-facing-action-in-las-vegas-for-improperly-tearing-down-hotel/

This may be an interesting case.

https://cdcgaming.com/brief/lawsuit-alleges-wheel-of-fortune-slot-game-bonus-wheel-is-rigged/

Today on 4th December 24, XNO is at $2.14. Extremely bullish.
Factors That Could Drive Nano Above Its 2021 High
A. Broader Market Recovery
A strong bull market similar to 2021 could lift Nano alongside the entire crypto market.
Bitcoin's dominance often leads to altcoins rallying; Nano could benefit from this trend if institutional and retail investors re-enter the space.
B. Increased Adoption
Fee-Less Transactions: Nano's unique advantage of zero transaction fees positions it as an ideal cryptocurrency for micropayments and real-time settlements.
Adoption in High-Volume Use Cases: Partnerships with payment processors, online merchants, or IoT applications could significantly boost demand and drive its price higher.
C. Enhanced Ecosystem and Development
Technological Improvements: Advancements in Nano's block-lattice technology or upgrades to its network could attract more developers and users.
Marketing and Awareness: Greater visibility through marketing campaigns and collaborations can attract retail and institutional investors.
D. Macroeconomic Factors
A shift toward decentralized payment systems and crypto adoption in developing economies could boost Nano's usage.
Regulatory clarity in major markets, such as the U.S. and Europe, could improve investor sentiment.
3. Challenges and Risks
A. Competition
Other Cryptocurrencies: High-performance projects like Solana, Aptos, and Layer 2 solutions like Polygon (MATIC) pose strong competition in terms of scalability and adoption.
Stablecoins: The rise of stablecoins for payment use cases diminishes Nano's utility in low-volatility transactions.
B. Limited Ecosystem
Unlike Ethereum or Solana, Nano does not have a thriving ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps) or smart contracts, limiting its growth potential.
C. Market Sentiment
Volatility and Speculation: Nano has historically been prone to speculative trading, and sustained price levels require consistent adoption and use cases.
D. Regulatory Concerns
Any adverse regulatory developments could impact investor confidence and limit growth.
4. Price Projections
Bullish Scenario:
In a strong bull market, coupled with increased adoption and technological advancements, Nano could surpass its 2021 high and reach $15-$20.
Neutral Scenario:
Moderate adoption and steady market growth might see Nano returning to the $10-$12 range in the next 2-3 years.
Bearish Scenario:
Continued market stagnation and competition could limit Nano's price growth to below $5-$6.
5. Conclusion
Nano has the potential to surpass its 2021 price high, but it hinges on:

A crypto market recovery.
Adoption in real-world use cases like micropayments and IoT.
Competition management and ecosystem growth.
While its unique fee-less transaction model and innovative block-lattice architecture provide a strong foundation, surpassing its 2021 highs will require significant advancements in adoption and market sentiment. Investors should keep an eye on ecosystem developments, partnerships, and broader market trends.

Hi KFB!

Thanks for your post, I really appreciate the HOT/NOT consideration. From this I'll try to expose our ideas.

Whatever the betting selection and patterns considered (random walks), itlr the NOT will overwhelm the HOT in frequency and not, of course, by a valuable proportional quantity.

There's no difference whether we're playing towards the NOT or the HOT, both are destined to get more probable short patterns than long patterns, then what happened by a huge/moderate density sooner or later will reverse in opposite probability.

The "sooner or later" instead of raw values could be better estimated by the "isolated/clustering" effect acting per every pattern examined.

A NOT shows up only when two things happen:

a) that pattern didn't show up once so far;

b) a previous pattern stopped its apparition.

A HOT shows up simply when a same pattern or more patterns we've decided to gather will continue to come out.

In addition, we know that each shoe is asymmetrically placed, meaning that clusters of something are slight more probable than everything else and now even an isolated/isolated pattern will get the same value of a clustering or clustering/clustering effect.

Theorically the best plan to adopt is to utilize two or three different random walks and wagering toward an isolated/clustering and clustering/clustering situation by progressively betting, better if we'd start the action after waiting some isolated/clustering situations.
If the random walks used get a different rhythm and besides some rare colliding situations, our probability to win is restricted into astronomical low sd values.   

Obviously and knowing that we're using a 0.75 probability, we are aware that isolated successions must show up, it's just a matter of conditional permutations issue.

The CFS and the asymmetrical patterns formation are just the icing on the cake.

Such effects are more than sufficient to erase and invert the HE by a simple FB scheme.

Here's an example extracted from our real shoes data.
 
We'll examine double and triple (exact 3) streaks as opposed to superior streaks (4 and higher).
C= cluster (at least two or more 2-3 streaks before a superior streak happens), I= isolated (a double or a triple streak came out intertwined by two superior streaks).

Each shoe features a first line (the common BR, and a second line being our main random walk)

For simplicity here we do not take care of additional factors.

C-C-C
C-C-C-C

C-C
C

C-C
I-I-C

I-C-C
C-C-I

C
C-C-C

C
I-C-C

C-C-C
C-C-C

C-C
C-C

C-I-I
C-C-C

C-C-C-C
I-C-C-C

C-I-C
I-C

C-C-C
I-C

C-C
I-I-C

I-C
C

C-C
C-C-I-C

I-C-C
I-C

C-C
I-I-C-C

C-C
I-C

I-C-C
C-C

C-I-C
C

C-C-C-I
C-C-I-C

I-I-C-C
I-C

C-C-I-C
C-C

I-C-I
C

C-C-C
C-C

C
C-C

C-C
C-C-C

I-C-C-C
C-C-C

I-C-C
C-C

C-C-C
C-C-C-C

C-I-C
I-C-C

C-C
C-C

I-C-C
C-C-C

C
C

C-I-C
I-C-I-C

C-I-I-C
I-C-I-I-C

C-C-C
I-I-C

C-C
I-C

I-C-C
C-C-I

I-C-C
C-C-C-C

I-C-C
I-C-I-C

I-C-C
C-C-I

C-C-I
C-I-C

C-C-C
C-C-C

C-C
C-I-C

I-C
C-C-C

C
I-C-I-C

I-C
C-I-C

C-C
I-I-C-C

C-C-C
C-C

C-C-C-I
C-C-C

C-C
C-C

C-C
C-I-I-I

C-I-C
C-C

I-I-C
C-C-C-I

C-I-C
C-C-C

C-C-I
I-C

C-C-I
C-C-C

C-C-C
I-C

C-I-C
C-C-C

C-C-C
C-C

C-C
I-C-C-I

C-I-I
C-I-C

I-I-C-C
C-C-C-C

C-C-I-C
C-I-C-C

C-I-C-I
C-C

C-C-C-I
C-I-C

I-I-C
C-C-C

C
C-C

C-C-C
C-C

C-C-C
C-I

C-I-C-C
C

I-I-C
C-C

I-C
C-C

C-C-C
C-C-C

C-C-C
C-C-C

C-C
C

I-C
C-C

C-C-C
I-I-I-C-C

C-C-C
I-I-C

C-C
C-C-I

I-C-C
C-C-C

I-I-C-C
C-C

C-C-I-I
I-I-C

C-C
C-C

I-C
C-C

C-I-C
C-C

I-C-C
C-C-C-C

I-C-C-C
C-C

C
I-C-C

C-C
C-I-C

C-C-I-C
C-C-C

C-C
I-I-C-C (6950)

Besides, notice the relationship between the two rows of any shoe, then the fact that a single C (not being so infrequent) means an entire shoe getting all doubles and triples.

Finally there's no way that the I/C ratio will stand strongly deviated toward the left for long as being slightly oriented toward the right side.

as.