Hi AsymBacGuy.

re: "...Overall we could accept the idea that asym=sym, yet we should be more interested about how many sym events will shift into asym events or vice versa and, more importantly, at which level of asymmetry or symmetry. Per every shoe played.  ..."

Qs: Lets say you have tracked intra-shoe streams of info and concluded the next "spot" is a + bet. So you have concluded the current Sym patterns will change to Asym.
     So my Q is do you give more credibility to a "spot" if that very next potentially winning spot would be in row one (per tote board layout)  vs lets say that spot would be at say row four or six, eight, or whatever Non-One row,..etc. ??

Thx as always,

Thx Vic for the links. You are correct as they are great reads.

*I like the RouletteIdeas site. Very crisp/clean format with an abundance of wise words from veteran gamers.

Cheers,kfb

Now the "battle" is not by guessing what happens next, just about comparing the two patterns considered in a specific position after running two different paced successions (BYB and SR, in our example).

This "trick" allow us to emphatize at most the natural asymmetrical features of the game, a thing that for sure will give us an edge.

After all the CFS cannot be homogeneous for long at two different sub sequences originated by a diverse pace (anyway not getting the common unbeatable binomial fluctuations), a kind of important proof that RVM and M. Von Smoluchoswki ideas are particularly effective in order to help us to define the baccarat problem.

Carefully studying two sub successions originated by the same sequence and getting a different pace will give us plenty of opportunities to take advantage and to restrict at most the biased limited values of relative frequency.

Of course natural and "coincidental" low level symmetrical patterns may happen for relatively "long" time, no matter which random walks we decide to utilize, yet the probability of success reamins higher than expected.

as.

Positional relationship between two derived roads

Consider the Big Eye Boy (BEB) and the Small Road (SR) successions taken column by column.
The pace starts as asymmetrical as SR needs more hands to initiate its sequence.
Then the density of the streaks happening at each succession will alter the positional paces, so it could happen that one road is quite prolonged and the other one is slow to fill the respective columns.
What we are interested at are the patterns showing up at the same column number.

more later

as.

CFS is made by + and - signs where + is any step moving toward the right (horizontal line) and - any step stalling (vertical lines).

So any + sign is any side shift and any - sign correspond to the same side happening again once or more times.
From a pattern point of view the only "long" +-+-+-... events are consecutive doubles, so we may consider them as the perfect form of CFS symmetry, everything else will accelerate or slow down the columns filling speed (CFS).

Considering  8 resolved BP hands, the fastest, the slowest and the most neutral speeds are: 

BPBPBPBP = +++++++
PBPBPBPB = +++++++

BBBBBBBB = -------
PPPPPPPP = -------

BBPPBBPP = -+-+-+-
PPBBPPBB = -+-+-+-

Those are just 6 out of the possible 128 patterns (first hand is the signal) coming out from any 8 resolved hand series.
In some sense they are "extremes" at either way.
Furthermore a kind of symmetrical movement acting for 7 or more consecutive steps can only come out from a 3,5 doubles consecutive appearance (2/128 probability).

Since an 8-deck shoe on average will form around 75 resolved hands, we know that we're facing close  to ten 7-hand situations.

Of course we do not want to consider doubles as "enemies", actually we are relatively more worried about long consecutive doubles successions that should be interpreted as a steady symmetrical (unwanted) distribution.

For example, a BPPBPPBPP (+-++-++-) sequence is an asymmetrical succession albeit showing two doubles).

On the other hand, we can't rule out long consecutive doubles successions (7, 8 or more doubles coming in a row) more likely to show up (even if very rarely) at some shuffling productions.

I've stated one millions of times here that at baccarat a kind of overalternating movement is the less likely to happen among others: the average consecutive doubles distribution could be a good start to investigate how a bac shoe really develops.

So it's not about HOW LONG a same sign (+ or -) will stand but about approximating at best WHEN either + or - clusters will show up by "categories" (clusters of one, clusters of two, etc).

After all consecutive doubles do not come out around any corner and anyway there are some tricks to partially get rid of them by following some derived random walks.

See you tomorrow.

as.

QuoteWhen you reflect on things looking back, it's clear to see now that Gizmo was well ahead of the curve

I often see Gizmo/Mark as very reminiscent of Manrique!

For instance, you can compare their take on a similar topic:

• [Manrique] The 4 Game Situations.
• The three states of effectiveness (Gizmo/Mark).

Both are certainly worthy of a good read!

Cheers,
Vic

Anyway here some Big Road shoes really played: (A=asym pattern, S=sym pattern)
E= easy shoe, M=moderate shoe, T= tough shoe

A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-S-A-A-S-A-A-S-S (E)

A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-S (E)

S-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-S-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A  (E)

S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-A-A-A-A-S (E)

S-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-S-S (E)

A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-S-A-S-A-A  (E)

A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S (E)

A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A (E)

A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-S-A (E)

S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-S-A-S-A-A-S  (E)

S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A  (E)

A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A  (E)

A-A-S-A-A-S-S-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-S-S  (M)

A-S-S-A-S-S-A-A-S-S-A-A-A-S-S-A-S  (M)

A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S (E)

A-S-A-A-S-A-S-S-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A (E/M)

A-A-S-S-A-A-S-S-S-A-A-S-S-S-A-A-S-A (T)

A-A-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-S-A (E/M)

A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-S (E)

S-S-S-S-S-A-S-A-S-A-A* (T)

S-S-A-A-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-S (E)

S-A-A-A-S-S-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S (E/M)

A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A (E)

A-A-A-S-S-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A (E)

*: a very rare back-to-back 5 S sequence

as.

99.99% of baccarat players quit the tables as moderate or huge winners anytime a kind of long univocal situation(s) happen; Most part of players make a living a this game quit the tables as low or very low winners, so not relying upon long univocal situations.

If experts improperly label baccarat as a "coin flip" game they have reasons to state that.
Long winning streaks=long losing streaks plus something and long winning streaks come from steady univocal situations getting the same probability of long losing streaks.

What happens "good" sooner or later will transform into "bad", so in some sense we should be more prepared to face the "bad" than trying to get the "good" around every corner.

Technically here we've seen several ideas (yet based upon long term statistical findings) to try to restrict at most the bad instead of steadily looking for the good.

And IMO this task involves a lot of patience as there are no easy countermeasures to be employed other than by staying still, maybe waiting for the next shoe.

As Alrelax pointed out several times here, an approach works until it doesn't.
Unfortunately casinos profits made worldwide teach us that the vast majority of approaches do not work.

Asymmetrical vs symmetrical successions

With the A/B patterns seen above and somewhat limited in their AS/S appearance, we know beyond any shadow of doubt that the good (asym consecutive events) will be proportionally longer than the bad (sym consecutive events).
That alone is not sufficient to set up a long term winning plan as too many situations will form "unsound" results in relationship of what we'd expect to face. In poorer words, AS-AS>AS-S or S-AS>S-S and every other superior ratio (as S-S-AS>S-S-S, etc), will be easily counterfeited by just one wrong card falling. 

Therefore we should be more interested to consider results of every shoe as a "whole" and comparing it with our old average shoe category.
Whenever things seem to be "too weird distributed in terms of card combinations" we should put the brakes on. In fact odds are that this shoe doesn't fit the category.
The same about shoes featuring a high number of ties (unresolved hands).

When to bet for AS patterns

A general plan could be devised as:

1- Bet AS after a single S event (P1)

2- Bet AS after two S events (P2)

3- Bet AS after any AS event (Px)

Such attacks taken individually will be so balanced in their apparition that even a kind of brainless progression (both positive and negative) will get the best of it.
Way better is to start the action after a fictional multi shoes negative situation happened.

Remember that we're not necessarily considering the Big Road, actually this is the worst succession to take care of.

as.

Example.

We know that per every shoe dealt the probability to get all or just one asymmetrical patterns is very low.
Therefore more than one symmetrical pattern MUST come out at some portion of the shoe.

Since we are not belonging to the category of those id.iots thinking that it's possible to read randomness or profitably following patterns, we must be prepared to face symmetrical patterns that we empirically labeled as "unprofitable".

Now it's up to us whether we want to select at most our betting opportunities or to hope we'll able to humanly guess a greater than 50% of total situations.
The latter scenario is what really fuels the game and casinos' profits.

Gambling experts of my a$$ teach us that every hand is a new hand no matter what.

Bighornsh.it.

Since cards are surely asymmetrically distributed, related results will be surely asymmetrically distributed.
Maybe sometimes results will take a kind of symmetrical shape for quite long but that's not the rule.

So let's falsify such hypothesis and starting to bet towards symmetry.
You'll go broke very soon or at least sooner than by wagering a kind of asymmetrical approach.

As long as symmetrical patterns will be consecutively placed by lower proportionally levels than asymmetrical patterns we will be in good shape.

We'll be back on this issue in a couple of days.

as.