Positional relationship between two derived roads

Consider the Big Eye Boy (BEB) and the Small Road (SR) successions taken column by column.
The pace starts as asymmetrical as SR needs more hands to initiate its sequence.
Then the density of the streaks happening at each succession will alter the positional paces, so it could happen that one road is quite prolonged and the other one is slow to fill the respective columns.
What we are interested at are the patterns showing up at the same column number.

more later

as.

CFS is made by + and - signs where + is any step moving toward the right (horizontal line) and - any step stalling (vertical lines).

So any + sign is any side shift and any - sign correspond to the same side happening again once or more times.
From a pattern point of view the only "long" +-+-+-... events are consecutive doubles, so we may consider them as the perfect form of CFS symmetry, everything else will accelerate or slow down the columns filling speed (CFS).

Considering  8 resolved BP hands, the fastest, the slowest and the most neutral speeds are: 

BPBPBPBP = +++++++
PBPBPBPB = +++++++

BBBBBBBB = -------
PPPPPPPP = -------

BBPPBBPP = -+-+-+-
PPBBPPBB = -+-+-+-

Those are just 6 out of the possible 128 patterns (first hand is the signal) coming out from any 8 resolved hand series.
In some sense they are "extremes" at either way.
Furthermore a kind of symmetrical movement acting for 7 or more consecutive steps can only come out from a 3,5 doubles consecutive appearance (2/128 probability).

Since an 8-deck shoe on average will form around 75 resolved hands, we know that we're facing close  to ten 7-hand situations.

Of course we do not want to consider doubles as "enemies", actually we are relatively more worried about long consecutive doubles successions that should be interpreted as a steady symmetrical (unwanted) distribution.

For example, a BPPBPPBPP (+-++-++-) sequence is an asymmetrical succession albeit showing two doubles).

On the other hand, we can't rule out long consecutive doubles successions (7, 8 or more doubles coming in a row) more likely to show up (even if very rarely) at some shuffling productions.

I've stated one millions of times here that at baccarat a kind of overalternating movement is the less likely to happen among others: the average consecutive doubles distribution could be a good start to investigate how a bac shoe really develops.

So it's not about HOW LONG a same sign (+ or -) will stand but about approximating at best WHEN either + or - clusters will show up by "categories" (clusters of one, clusters of two, etc).

After all consecutive doubles do not come out around any corner and anyway there are some tricks to partially get rid of them by following some derived random walks.

See you tomorrow.

as.

QuoteWhen you reflect on things looking back, it's clear to see now that Gizmo was well ahead of the curve

I often see Gizmo/Mark as very reminiscent of Manrique!

For instance, you can compare their take on a similar topic:

• [Manrique] The 4 Game Situations.
• The three states of effectiveness (Gizmo/Mark).

Both are certainly worthy of a good read!

Cheers,
Vic

Anyway here some Big Road shoes really played: (A=asym pattern, S=sym pattern)
E= easy shoe, M=moderate shoe, T= tough shoe

A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-S-A-A-S-A-A-S-S (E)

A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-S (E)

S-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-S-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A  (E)

S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-A-A-A-A-S (E)

S-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-S-S (E)

A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-S-A-S-A-A  (E)

A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S (E)

A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A (E)

A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-S-A (E)

S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-S-A-S-A-A-S  (E)

S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A  (E)

A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A  (E)

A-A-S-A-A-S-S-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-S-S  (M)

A-S-S-A-S-S-A-A-S-S-A-A-A-S-S-A-S  (M)

A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S (E)

A-S-A-A-S-A-S-S-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A (E/M)

A-A-S-S-A-A-S-S-S-A-A-S-S-S-A-A-S-A (T)

A-A-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-S-A (E/M)

A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-S (E)

S-S-S-S-S-A-S-A-S-A-A* (T)

S-S-A-A-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-S (E)

S-A-A-A-S-S-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S (E/M)

A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A (E)

A-A-A-S-S-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A (E)

*: a very rare back-to-back 5 S sequence

as.

99.99% of baccarat players quit the tables as moderate or huge winners anytime a kind of long univocal situation(s) happen; Most part of players make a living a this game quit the tables as low or very low winners, so not relying upon long univocal situations.

If experts improperly label baccarat as a "coin flip" game they have reasons to state that.
Long winning streaks=long losing streaks plus something and long winning streaks come from steady univocal situations getting the same probability of long losing streaks.

What happens "good" sooner or later will transform into "bad", so in some sense we should be more prepared to face the "bad" than trying to get the "good" around every corner.

Technically here we've seen several ideas (yet based upon long term statistical findings) to try to restrict at most the bad instead of steadily looking for the good.

And IMO this task involves a lot of patience as there are no easy countermeasures to be employed other than by staying still, maybe waiting for the next shoe.

As Alrelax pointed out several times here, an approach works until it doesn't.
Unfortunately casinos profits made worldwide teach us that the vast majority of approaches do not work.

Asymmetrical vs symmetrical successions

With the A/B patterns seen above and somewhat limited in their AS/S appearance, we know beyond any shadow of doubt that the good (asym consecutive events) will be proportionally longer than the bad (sym consecutive events).
That alone is not sufficient to set up a long term winning plan as too many situations will form "unsound" results in relationship of what we'd expect to face. In poorer words, AS-AS>AS-S or S-AS>S-S and every other superior ratio (as S-S-AS>S-S-S, etc), will be easily counterfeited by just one wrong card falling. 

Therefore we should be more interested to consider results of every shoe as a "whole" and comparing it with our old average shoe category.
Whenever things seem to be "too weird distributed in terms of card combinations" we should put the brakes on. In fact odds are that this shoe doesn't fit the category.
The same about shoes featuring a high number of ties (unresolved hands).

When to bet for AS patterns

A general plan could be devised as:

1- Bet AS after a single S event (P1)

2- Bet AS after two S events (P2)

3- Bet AS after any AS event (Px)

Such attacks taken individually will be so balanced in their apparition that even a kind of brainless progression (both positive and negative) will get the best of it.
Way better is to start the action after a fictional multi shoes negative situation happened.

Remember that we're not necessarily considering the Big Road, actually this is the worst succession to take care of.

as.

Example.

We know that per every shoe dealt the probability to get all or just one asymmetrical patterns is very low.
Therefore more than one symmetrical pattern MUST come out at some portion of the shoe.

Since we are not belonging to the category of those id.iots thinking that it's possible to read randomness or profitably following patterns, we must be prepared to face symmetrical patterns that we empirically labeled as "unprofitable".

Now it's up to us whether we want to select at most our betting opportunities or to hope we'll able to humanly guess a greater than 50% of total situations.
The latter scenario is what really fuels the game and casinos' profits.

Gambling experts of my a$$ teach us that every hand is a new hand no matter what.

Bighornsh.it.

Since cards are surely asymmetrically distributed, related results will be surely asymmetrically distributed.
Maybe sometimes results will take a kind of symmetrical shape for quite long but that's not the rule.

So let's falsify such hypothesis and starting to bet towards symmetry.
You'll go broke very soon or at least sooner than by wagering a kind of asymmetrical approach.

As long as symmetrical patterns will be consecutively placed by lower proportionally levels than asymmetrical patterns we will be in good shape.

We'll be back on this issue in a couple of days.

as.

The main problem about A/S (A= asymmetrical patterns, S= symmetrical patterns) occurences is that several times just one hand that went "wrong" will transform sure AS more likely sequences into a "long" S one, so disrupting a more probable flow.

Consider this A/S sequence.

A-S-S-S-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A

In this bac succession the S marked in bold/red was a more natural opposite winning side (actually was a standing 7 point vs a 4 point that catched a third card 4) so more likely to produce a AS hand than a S hand; thus the above sequence would be read as:

A-S-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A

And actually this is, by far, the most likely A/S situation happening, that is a fair number of A clusters and a "limited" number of singled or doubled S events.
 
Obviously such "unsound math" hands could easily go at our favor (that is forming A events where S situations were more supposed to show up) but we shouldn't be so happy to win such hands for long.

So solely playing for A events is the best action to make, yet possible consecutive shoes not fitting our plan will pose a real threat to our plan in terms of variance.

In order to set up a multilayered betting scheme (or a super selected flat betting method) we must take into account the WORST possible scenarios, that is a strong very very unlikely distribution of shoes not fitting the "average shoe" requisites.

I talked about shoes and not about hands.

Here's a brief list of real played shoes at HS rooms (preordered shuffled shoes), presented in the natural succession we've encountered them. Our random walk was utilized but event the big road succession will fit the concept. 
Feel free to re-arrange such shoes in the worst possible sequence.

For the purpose of the S average distribution I'll mention only S sequences (0.25% general probability to appear).
1= one S event
2= two consecutive S events
and so on

1-1-1-3

1

1-1-2-1

2-1

2-1

2-1

1-2

2-1

1-1

1-1-1-1

2-1

1-2

1-2

1-1-1

1-4

2-1-2-1

1

0

2-1-1-1

1-1-1

1-1-1-2

1-1-1-1-(2)

1-(2)

1-1-1-1

1-1-2

2-2-1

1-2

1-1-1

1-1-1-1-(2)

1-1

1-2

2-1-1-1-1

1

1-1

1-2-1

2-2

4-1

1-1-1-1-(2)

1-1

1-1-1

1-2

1-1

1-1-2-1

1-2-1-1-2

2

1-2

1-1-1

1

2-1-1

3-1-2

1-1-1

1-2-1-1

2-1

1-1-1-1-2

1-1-2

1

1-1

1-1-1-(2)

2-1-(2)

1-1-(2)

1-1

1-1-2

2-1-1-1

3-2-1

3

1-1-1

1-2-1

2-1-2

1-1-1

1-1-1-2

2-1-2-1

1-1

1-1

1-1(2)

1-1-1

1-1-3-1

1-3-1-1

1

1-1-1-1

1

1-1

1

1-1

1-1-1-1

1-2-2-(2)

2

1-1

1-3

1

1-1-1

1-2-1

1-1-1-1-(2)

1

1-2-1-1

1-1

1-2-1

1-1

1-1-2

1-1-1-1

1-1

1-1-2

1-2

1-1-3

2-1-2

1-1

1

1-1-2

1-2-1-1-1

1-1-1

2-1

1-2

1-1-1-1

1-1-2-1

2

1-1-1-1

1-1-1

2-1-1-1

1-2-1

1-1-3

1-1-(2)

1

1-1-2

1-1-2

1-1

1-1-1-1

3-3

1-1

1-2

2-2

2

1-4

2

1-1-2

2

1

1-1

1-2-1-1-1

2-1

2

1-1-1-2

1-1-1-(2)

1-1

1-2-1

1-1-1

1

4-3

1-2-1-1-1-1

2-1-2-1

1-1

1-1-(2)

1-1

1-1-1

1-1

2-1

3-2-1

2-2

2-1-1-1-1

1-1-1

1-3

1-1-1-1

1-1-1-(2)

1-1-1-2-1

oOoOo

Well, are those sequences performing a kind of "more likely patterns" in terms of numbers?

Notice that whereas the definition of A pattern is quite easy, the definition of a S pattern stops after the first level of symmetry happening.

So a (AABB)AB pattern (S pattern) should be considered as equal to a (AABBAABBAABB...) pattern, the same about consecutive patterns as AAABBBB or AAAAAAAABBBBAAABBBBBB, etc.

Sayed in another form, S patterns are those back to back patterns formed by the same or superior quantity related to the previous pattern up to the old 3-step degree.

Notice that more S numbers are displayed and shorter were the A sequences and vice versa.

Thus instead of guessing the unguessable, try to assign a deviation value to each fictional player  wagering for us and betting towards more probable specific levels of less likely symmetry.

P1 will bet towards level 1 of symmetry, so waiting the appearance of 1-step events of symmetry then wagering for the symmetry to stop after a given negative deviation happened.

P2 will bet towards level 2 of symmetry, so waiting the appearance of 2-step events of symmetry then wagering for the symmetry to stop after a negative deviation happened.

Px is our "id.iot gambler" so endlessly wagering towards the asymmetry, always considered by clusters. So meaning that it doesn't start the action until an asymmetrical event had shown up.

Merging the three players action together the W/L ratio at carefully selected spots will be way higher than 0.75.
So capable to erase and invert the HE.

as.

But what are the more likely AS/S occurrences along any shoe dealt?

And are there ploys to avoid strong negative deviations?

See you later

as.
   

Hi KFB!

It is my opinion FREEPLAY is very important to most players.

However, the EV is obviously very high on free play/

I totally agree, still not tkinking that many players are really interested in them.

Among the various promotions, freeplay is one of the best for the players.
On one occasion I remember a woman tossing a $50 freeplay voucher and then quitting the table with more than a $4.000 win...no bad.
Since this player hadn't played any table game once in her life, she was 100% freerolling with casino's money (she got the FP voucher as a hotel guest).
I don't know if after this wonderful experience now she's a baccarat lover, hope she doesn't.

Why not taking advantage of getting back some EV- by playing at some premises that give FP tickets?

as.