08 Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !

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Offline Mathemagician

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Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
« on: December 02, 2016, 11:59:39 am »
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  • Level Stake betting on even chances using RouletteKeyGold

    I'll count even chances any of the 18 number bets as counted by Roulette Key Gold. (I know its not quite an even chance bet being 18 out of 37 numbers.)

    I'll use Red as an example but any set of 18 numbers will suffice.

    During a session of 1000 spins one can expect red to sleep 4 times (BBBB) on average for around 31 times.

    Similarly, one can expect red to sleep 5 times (BBBBB) on average for around 16 times.

    Assuming Red won't sleep a fifth time bet on Red every time it sleeps 4 times

    Total stake 31 units

    If 16 of these bets lose we lose 16 units. However, the other 15 bets win returning 30 units.This shows an overall profit of 14 units. (a fairly typical result)
    Of course it's still possible to lose but it is a rare occurrence. (according to my spreadsheet.

    Unfortunately, few of us have time to play 1000 spins waiting for RED to sleep 4 times (on average 32 minutes)

    But what happens if we bet when any even chance or set of 18 numbers sleeps 4 times, the time take is drastically reduced to only a few minutes between bets!

    (If using level stakes on 18 different numbers the stake needs to be 18 times the minimum stake)



    ---------------------------------------------------------

    Incidentally, I've recently come across Powtoon for making cartoon videos, my first attempt at using it is below, let me know what you think.
    It's free and I think I can use it to help the five out of three people who can't do Maths !
    I find it tricky to get the timing right as you can see  but things can only get better !




    Offline plolp

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #1 on: December 04, 2016, 01:40:01 pm »
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  • Beautiful video

     But very naive method  !!!  :o
    Rien de plus normal, tout est étrange .

    Offline Nathan Detroit5

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #2 on: December 05, 2016, 06:59:50 pm »
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  • A very nice presentation . !


    ND 5

    Offline plolp

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #3 on: December 06, 2016, 04:05:22 am »
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  • Level Stake betting on even chances using RouletteKeyGold

    I'll count even chances any of the 18 number bets as counted by Roulette Key Gold. (I know its not quite an even chance bet being 18 out of 37 numbers.)

    I'll use Red as an example but any set of 18 numbers will suffice.

    During a session of 1000 spins one can expect red to sleep 4 times (BBBB) on average for around 31 times.







    it's weird  I calculated and found 15.6
    Rien de plus normal, tout est étrange .

    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #4 on: December 06, 2016, 01:29:58 pm »
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  • Beautiful video

     But very naive method  !!!  :o

     I don't find it naive, one method have been coded and tested upon similiar principals.
     See above with serie of five, the math add up.

     For example assume you use a trigger of two and do some observations charting and tracking, then you will ask your self how you can win hitting does long strikes where they hovering within series of five.
     Pick one colour, for example RED and each time you get a serie of two or three you write a minus sign -
     Each time you hit a serie of four you make a equal sign =
     And each time you encounter a series of five or higher you write a plus sign +

     Then the result might look like this - - - - = - + - = + - - - = - - - - - = = = - - - = - + - - - + - + - - - = = - = - - - - - - +
     This is a Eye opener why is some times is a good idea betting against the Wheel, even Brett Morton parly his way to winning that way.

     CHeers

    Offline plolp

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #5 on: December 08, 2016, 08:06:42 am »
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  • There are as many série of 5 and above as série of 4

    so it's  50/50  .

    What is the idea?

    Rien de plus normal, tout est étrange .

    Offline Mathemagician

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #6 on: December 13, 2016, 06:12:40 pm »
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  • Many runs of 4 stop at 4 some go on to 5. It could be half of them but as long as it's less than 66.66% a profit is made.

    If red sleeps for 4 say 100 times and you make 100 bets on red. Then if red sleeps for 5 say 66 times and you lose 66 times . But you win 34 times and still show a profit of 2.
    (34 winning bets = 68 less 66 losing bets.)

    Occasionally you lose more than 66 bets out of 100 then you lose but you usually show a profit.

    Also there's no need to stick to Red when RKG watches another 70 or so 'even' chances.



    Offline Moccoman

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #7 on: December 13, 2016, 07:18:45 pm »
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  • 31 bets of 1 unit,
    16 lose, resulting in -16 units
    15 win, resulting in   15 units profit (not 30 units)
    Overall result minus 1 unit

    Cheers
    Mocco

    Offline esoito

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #8 on: December 14, 2016, 05:31:38 pm »
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  • Does anyone have any sound, mathematical reasons for disagreeing with the basic premise behind the first post in this thread?




    Offline plolp

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #9 on: December 14, 2016, 07:05:35 pm »
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  • If red sleeps for 4 say 100 times and you make 100 bets on red. Then if red sleeps for 5 say 66 times and you lose 66 times . But you win 34 times and still show a profit of 2.
    (34 winning bets = 68 less 66 losing bets.)






    It's magic .....

    Definitely not math !!

    Result :  -32
    Rien de plus normal, tout est étrange .

    Offline Mathemagician

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    Here's an actual example playing the numbers

    30,30,17,35,9,7,9,9,17,19,4,17,5,22,27,4,8,31

    from a real game of Roulette Pro with William Hill.

    I didn't have time to wait for just one even chance so I'll played all of them. My unit is £9 as this is the equivalent of 18 bets at £0.50.

    I placed one bet only  of £9.00 on every even chance that slept 4 times.
    I'm afraid I didn't record the successfully record the game as a video.

    But I won 6 bets and lost 5 so finish with a profit of 1 unit (£9.00). If these figures are incorrect then William Hill are in dire trouble !

    Opening Balance 125.60

    Spin 1 :30
    Spin 2 :30
    Spin 3 :17
    Spin 4 :35

    Bet 1
    Spin 5
    The 18 numbers following 8 have missed 4 spins
    I bet £9 on them (50p on each number)
    Result Win on number 9
    balance now 134.10
    ----------------------
    Bet 2
    Spin 6
    Bet on 3 sixains Once only
    1-6,10-15 & 22-27
    Lost on number 7
    Blance now
    125.60
    -------------------
    Bet 3
    Spin 7
    18 numbers from 34 have missed 4 spins
    I bet £9 on them (50p on each number)
    Lost on number 9
    Blance now
    116.6
    ------------------
    Bet 4
    Spin 8
    Evens have missed 4 spins
    I bet £9.00 on evens
    Lost on number 9
    Balance 107.60
    ---------------
    Bet 5
    Spin 9
    18 numbers from 0 have missed 4 spins
    I bet £9 on them (50p on each number)
    Win 0n 17
    Balance 116.10
    -----------------
    Bet 6
    Spin 10
    High numbers have missed 4 spins
    I bet £9.00 on High
    Win on 19
    Balance 125.60
    ----------------
    Bet 7
    Spin 11
    18 numbers from 34 have missed 4 spins
    I bet £9 on them
    Lost on 4
    Balance 116.10
    ---------------------
    Bet 8
    Spin 12
    18 numbers from 36 have missed 4 spins
    I bet £9 on them
    Win on 5
    Balance 125.60
    --------------------------
    Bet 9
    Spin 13
    18 numbers from 33 have missed 4 spins
    I bet £9 on them
    and 3 sixains missed 4 spins
    I bet £9 on them
    Win on 22
    Lose on 22
    Balance 125.60
    -------------------
    Bet 10
    Spin 17
    3 sixains (18 numbers)  missed 4 spins
    I bet £9 on them
    Win on 31
    Balance 134.60

    Offline Jay

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #11 on: December 16, 2016, 06:24:22 am »
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  • If 16 of these bets lose we lose 16 units. However, the other 15 bets win returning 30 units.This shows an overall profit of 14 units. (a fairly typical result)

     ???  I don't understand this. Why should the other 15 bets return 30 units? An even chance pays 1:1.

    Offline Mathemagician

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #12 on: December 16, 2016, 10:19:12 am »
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  • Sorry to confuse you I'd included the stake. Admittedly, sometimes I'm one of the 5 out of 3 people who can't do maths.

    So let's try again

    Each winning bet returns 1 unit each losing bet loses 1 unit
    In my previous real life example (last post). The figures were as follows:

    Bet 1   Win      +1      balance=1
    Bet 2   Lose    -1       balance=0
    Bet 3   Lose    -1      balance=-1
    Bet 4   Lose    - 1     balance=-2
    Bet 5   Win     +1      balance=-1
    Bet 6   Win     +1       balance=0
    Bet 7   Lose    -1      balance=-1
    Bet 8   Win     +1       balance=0
    Bet 9   Win     +1     balance +1
    Bet 9   Lose    -1       balance=0
    Bet 10   Win     +1     balance =1


    To conclude I made 10 bets
     6 of which won returning 6 units
     5 lost losing 5 units
    leaving a total profit of 1 unit in the example given it was £9.00 ( I chose £9.00 units as its easily divisible by 18)

    The bets were after any even chance slept 4 times in other words I was betting it wouldn't sleep a fifth time.

    The chances of an even chance sleeping 4 times are 1in 16
    The chances of an even chance sleeping 5 times are 1in 32
    (before anybody says I know its nearer 18 & 37 respectively due to the zero effect.)
    My theory is that any even chance will sleep for 4 times more often than it will sleep for 5 times and by betting level stakes once only you come out in profit
    but anything can happen !
    In my example I only covered a few spins (but observed 70 even chances) I could have gone on and maybe won more or I could have lost.
    So I stopped while ahead.

    P.S
    Believe it or not I am a qualified Maths tutor ! But qualifying was the most difficult thing I've ever done!

    Offline esoito

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #13 on: December 16, 2016, 08:09:58 pm »
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  • Peter, I've read your explanations several times and thought about what you've written.

    For me, maths was never a strength but I can't see anything wrong with your basic premise.

    I do know that particular bet works well in your excellent program.


    Offline Jay

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    Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
    « Reply #14 on: December 17, 2016, 02:23:01 am »
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  • Sorry to confuse you I'd included the stake. Admittedly, sometimes I'm one of the 5 out of 3 people who can't do maths.

    Ok thanks. But I don't see why you have chosen a streak of 4 losses to bet against when you could just wait for one. According to probability a streak of 2 losses will happen half as often as a single loss, a streak of 3 losses will happen half as often as a streak of 2, and so on. So surely the chances are just as good betting that a single loss won't turn into a double loss, as they are betting that a streak of 4 losses won't turn into a streak of 5?