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Topic: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac  (Read 3553 times)

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Offline alrelax

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In order to 'beat' randomness and 'define it' to mathematical and statistical outcome, you would have to be able to compress all the strings of outcomes, that are possible in baccarat.  And, that feat cannot be done and converted to a schedule of definitive presentments that will happen with certainty or even near certainty.

The reason no one can develop a schedule of upcoming winning hands in baccarat is, that the upcoming sequence(s) will not repeat themselves in a 'cyclical order' with definition and preset values that have to happen. 

The reason baccarat goes to only 9 and cancels out, is not dragon trails, luck, certain low numbers divisible, Gods, myths, or anything of the like, especially Asian.  The whole Asian end of it was added once the game began to die off in the USA and elsewhere and the casinos saw the light with the amount of money the Asians were willing to risk, pool together, commit crimes to get, etc.  Then all the Asian myths, twists and turns were integrated into the game. 

Back to the 0-9 values and what the cards represent.  The game cannot be cracked with a system according to mathematical and statistical figuring out, because of 'LOG' and 'pi'.  In short, the Pi will have the first 6+ billion places each developed from 0 to 9, showing up around 600 million times, if I am correct as the basics go. 

Anything that the shoes produce with similarity to what the tester found, is just coincident data, with no real reoccurring lock to discover and place into a schedule of digits that form events, that will repeatedly present themselves, time after time after time within any section, etc.  It is impossible.  It has to do with Binary Logarithm or 'LOG 2s' as they call it I believe.

Where gamblers and system writers, etc., fall prey, is they want the value 'x' = Log2 to convert to their 'wishful dream thinking' of discovering standard mathematical functions that come about on a repetitive basis.  When you mix in 8 decks of cards and limit each card value between 0 and 9, your outcomes jump to 10's of billions of possible results.  I did not invent the game, I am not a mathematician, I am not a computer programmer.  I am a realist and I know the game.  I know the basics about math and stats and a long time ago realized there is no way to continually apply those to the game and when in any type of scheduled plan based upon discovering the future presentments of the cards. 

Then the programmer or casino wizards, whatever they are called, go into their analysis of the algorithms to locate the frequency and use of Log2's, etc., to make-up some kind of structure, which they claim is a system to Beat The Casino, etc.  At least that is how I see it all over these years.

The problem being, the manual cards will not match up to the mathematical reoccurring logarithms.  In other words, those cards have an exposure value and not a programmed value.  Additionally, IMO, the gambling system finders and tester, etc., are claiming they input real numbers, 'x' and the outputs from their computer science they apply, are equaling some type of 'mapping'.  Which will be something like greater than, or equal to (whatever they are working with).  Then they count down or up and justify whatever it is the balance they found.  The result in that balance if it appears several times is their 'key', or their 'holy grail', etc.

But they really found nothing that will repeatedly and with any consecutively repeats itself every time that certain events or values they deduced down, come about.  Why?  Simply because of manual presentments from those cards valued 0 to 9.  And those very same cards not being programmed.  That's why.  Any type of shuffle and cut, kills any thought of a pre-set value that can be determined. 

If you truly understand what a logarithm is, you would understand what I am saying.  When you mix 4-5 and 6 cards of values limited to 0 through 9, to get the outcome of a W or a L, that is not based on the previous W's and L's, or what is left, that is where the different schools of thought surface as to what can be systemically invented or discovered by a mathematician or a statistical professor involving baccarat.

In short, they will never find that 'a' means anything to 'b' equaling 'x'.  Period.  They will find that 'a' and 'b' affect the value of each other, but there are billions of combinations possible and within a round of 80 hands or so, the impossibility will remain. 

That is why I take the stance I do regarding the conversion of math and stats to the value of the cards and attempting to realize a repetitive schedule to play by.  The cards can never present themselves the same way, based on anything to coincide with a planned schedule.

Here is one more way I will attempt to explain it.  If the shoe of baccarat was a pre-programmed event of 76-84 hands and written by a programmer with cards installed to produce sporadic events at any given time, or in fact not produce them, then you got a chance at discovering the presentments and learning the 'how and why' certain events will always present themselves or not. 

But the way the manual cards determine the value of a winning and a losing hand, is solely based upon the order of the cards that a computer did not direct, and therefore those cards are not governed by what you are developing according to math and stats.  And, since a computer program is not directing how the shoe will be presented (at least in a B&M Casino) there would be no way you can reduce any series of tests to become a universal scheduled plan to dictate your wagering, allowing you to win with certainty.  You will never figure out a system to learn how and when the cards will present themselves with an advantage according to mathematical and statistical adherence.

I told you, I'm not a mathematician or a statistician or a computer programmer. So maybe I just stuck my foot so far up my butt, I made myself look like a clown standing on my head. Quite possibly.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com


Offline 8OR9

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Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2018, 08:21:38 PM »
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  • As stated in previous posts, there are 416 cards in an 8 deck shoe ( 52 x 8 ) and the number of possible combinations those cards can create is 416 !       ( 416 factorial ) which is 416 x 415 x 414 x 413 x 412 x 411 x 410 x 409 x 408...........all the way down to 2 x 1.... and that number is so big that no human being can understand it.

    No mechanical system can handle all those potential combinations.....                   
     and that is whyevery baccarat shoe is totally different from the last shoe.


    Offline Mike

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #2 on: July 21, 2018, 03:33:10 AM »
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  • I have no argument that there is or can be a successful math system to beat Bacc (or roulette), so I agree with Glen. But what I disagree with is the notion or suggestion that there can be any "non mechanical", intuitive way of playing which is superior; a way based on experience. If there was such a way then of course the rules could be found and hey presto, you would have a successful mechanical system after all. To deny this is incoherent and contradictory.

    Offline 8OR9

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #3 on: July 21, 2018, 09:20:05 AM »
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  • The following is an old post of mine as to my opinion as to how to beat the casino......there are probably other methods, but this is one I prefer


    "Follow these 6 steps and you have a good long term chance  of beating the casino at any game,...... dice, baccarat, sicbo etc


    1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.

    2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at
    a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology  such as
    111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they must all be conservative.

    3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown flat betting

    In the above example, your bankroll should be at least  $ 1,500
     ( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )

    4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream,  and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.

    5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses

    6. You must have patience to follow your money management plan and not go on "tilt" like poker players who are on a losing streak.

    Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.

    Number 6 above, patience, is probably the most important......trying to make up a drawdown by raising your bets too large and too fast and neglecting your money management, methodology will probably ruin any chance or achieving profitability.

    Also, if you are using a progression betting system ( like a labby, reverse labby, upside down labby, conservative martingale etc etc) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.

    Using a betting methodology where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a  bad baccarat shoe requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting.........and a very, very large bankroll.

    The higher the risk, the higher the bankroll required.

    So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps."

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #4 on: July 21, 2018, 09:25:58 AM »
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  • Lots of people get real confused on Bankrolls and Buy ins.

    What they are and actually how to use them or, what they mean to each of us.

    I believe I defined my thoughts and subscriptions to each of them numerous times. 

    What I am driving at is, that to one member/person a bank roll is his total play money and what he buys in for each and every time.  To another person a buy in is totally separate from the bank roll.  A bank roll is never brought to the casino in almost any situation. 

    On and on and on.

    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #5 on: July 21, 2018, 10:18:50 AM »
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  • The following is an old post of mine as to my opinion as to how to beat the casino......there are probably other methods, but this is one I prefer


    "Follow these 6 steps and you have a good long term chance  of beating the casino at any game,...... dice, baccarat, sicbo etc


    1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.

    2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at
    a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology  such as
    111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they must all be conservative.

    3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown flat betting

    In the above example, your bankroll should be at least  $ 1,500
     ( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )

    4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream,  and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.

    5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses

    6. You must have patience to follow your money management plan and not go on "tilt" like poker players who are on a losing streak.

    Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.

    Number 6 above, patience, is probably the most important......trying to make up a drawdown by raising your bets too large and too fast and neglecting your money management, methodology will probably ruin any chance or achieving profitability.

    Also, if you are using a progression betting system ( like a labby, reverse labby, upside down labby, conservative martingale etc etc) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.

    Using a betting methodology where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a  bad baccarat shoe requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting.........and a very, very large bankroll.

    The higher the risk, the higher the bankroll required.

    So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps."

    Can you be more exact on what kind of progression you apply?
    I have been testing Holloways Progression and considering memorize it.
    As with my test, there is always a reversal playing bias tables.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #6 on: July 21, 2018, 10:34:08 AM »
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  • IMO, and please do not take it the wrong way!

    Reason for the topic I detailed out.  Progressions and a wagering technique (I feel through experience and years in the casino) will only cause a player to become wiped out repeatedly, every single last time he attempts to play on wagering theory with progressions or not (flat--positive and negative).  There is more to it beside a wagering plan. 

    Again, please do not take this as an insult, or anything else. 

    I have witnessed huge amounts lost without wins and as well, huge amounts won and the player continued with the exact same progression wagering techniques/plan.  Everyone failed if they stuck to it.

    Yes, nothing last forever in a casino, of course.  Said and understood as Basic 101 gambling.

    However, a crutch, a belief is a huge and a powerful thing at the table!  That is my point.  A progression (either way) can win or lose, but not control the physical aspect ( I hope that is the correct wording) of the player.  It only controls what is won or lost.  And once again, my point exactly. But, I do really believe the aspect of both the wins and the losses compiled by progressions are one of the strongest and worse 'crutches' that influences a player.

    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #7 on: July 21, 2018, 12:03:17 PM »
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  • Yes, I understand, assume someone knows how to flat betting. then there will still be variance and fluctuation, even when Caleb play a biased wheel that has a defect he and his team will face variance and fluctuation, that is part of the game.
    He might use Kelly Staking Plan to optimal he's game having a positive expectation.
    Then what is the difference if someone increases a smooth conservative staking plan playing EC if he also takes advantage out of bias sequences that last for very long periods with occasional drawdowns.

    There are more examples, take sports betting where you have "value betting" to determine if a bet will win or lose.
    Where one player won 16 months using a smooth staking plan.
    I assume he triple his money during that period of time.

    We all know everything loses in the long run, but for example, 16 months of action is part of the short run.
    And I reckon he was satisfied even if he's staking plan finally tank.

    The debate is not about using or not using a staking plan, is about tackle variance and fluctuation even when you know how to spot bias.
    That is my opinion.

    Offline Polemic

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #8 on: July 22, 2018, 11:30:46 AM »
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  • The initial post in this thread is very impressive.  It is the mathematical truth.  Sadly, the opposite of those factual statements are the basis for "system" sellers everywhere. 

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #9 on: July 22, 2018, 12:09:14 PM »
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  • The initial post in this thread is very impressive.  It is the mathematical truth.  Sadly, the opposite of those factual statements are the basis for "system" sellers everywhere.

    Thank you!

    Not just in gambling really look at life in general. Look at the Cosmetic commercials on TV,  look at the Landscaping commercials how products will turn your yard into
    An overnight painting, look at how they talk  about car additives and how they will rejuvenate your car, the list is endless.

     People wake up and realize there's no quick or easy way out of most anything do it the right way.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Nickmsi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #10 on: July 22, 2018, 11:53:27 PM »
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  • Ok, we are just talking here so lets have an intelligent discussion.

    Interesting topic of Why you can never have a successful math system to beat baccarat?  I was looking forward to learning your reasons, facts, results etc. to back up this claim. 

    What I think I read was just some of the reasons the game of baccarat/roulette is random, and therefore you shouldnt be able beat a random game.

    When you say you can Never have a successful math system to beat baccarat you are trying to prove a negative and that is not easily done.

    It is easier to prove a positive like how to use math/statistics to beat baccarat.  This I can do and have done in Part 1 and Part 2 of my series Use Math/Statistics to beat baccarat/roulette

    I have been unable to beat baccarat/roulette using random methods.  If you can with your 25 years experience, knowledge and bankroll, then God Bless, I wish you continued success.

    I dont have 25 years of life left to devote to learning what you know and most of us dont have your temperament and bankroll to help us on our journey.

    What I am looking for is a simple, mechanical system that has a mathematical EDGE to win.  I have not found one using random system but using Non-Random systems I can.

    Math is a Non-Random.  Groups of Spins are Non-Random.   A physically biased wheel is Non-Random.

    A Non-Random system does not care what the card count is, it does not care how many 9s are left, it does not care how often you shuffle, none of these things matter in a Non-Random system.

    Math says 1+1 will always equal 2.  Math says that in 9 spins you will always have an Arithmetic Progression.  Math says that you will have an 2.5/6 edge in using Triplets.

    In my next post in Use Math/Statistics to beat baccarat/roulette I will explain more and actually show results of 100,000 spins using the Triplets system. I think with these facts and empirical data you can make up your own mind whether Math/Statistics can help you beat baccarat/roulette.

    Cheers

    Nick

    Offline james

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #11 on: July 23, 2018, 08:06:46 AM »
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  • We can never have a successful math system to beat Bac, because Math says so. However, we look forward to a winning gambling system to make money.

    Offline Mike

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #12 on: July 23, 2018, 08:14:48 AM »
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  • In my next post in �Use Math/Statistics to beat baccarat/roulette� I will explain more and actually show results of 100,000 spins using the Triplets system. I think with these facts and empirical data you can make up your own mind whether Math/Statistics can help you beat baccarat/roulette.

    Nick,

    Looking forward to that. Although I don't believe that any mechanical system can get an edge, I'm with you in that I think it (a MECHANICAL system) should be the goal. I just don't find it interesting to keep hearing that it's discipline, experience, intuition etc which is the key to success. Discipline by itself means nothing if it's applied to a losing system, of course, and I don't know why people keeping banging on that it's some kind of substitute for an edge. As for experience, what use is it if you don't learn from it? and learning from it means, essentially, learning "rules" about what to do and what not to do in a given situation, what decisions to make. So anyone who denies that mechanical systems can work but experience can work is being contradictory.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #13 on: July 23, 2018, 11:18:48 AM »
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  • We can never have a successful math system to beat Bac, because Math says so. However, we look forward to a winning gambling system to make money.

    You are correct, IMO.

    There are ways to profit, possible not every session of course, but that also depends on numerous other factors we each employ, believe in and subscribe to as we are playing.

    We destined ourselves through many experiences or research when we play. 

    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #14 on: July 23, 2018, 11:33:29 AM »
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  • Ok, we are just talking here so let�s have an intelligent discussion.

    Interesting topic of Why you can never have a successful math system to beat baccarat?  I was looking forward to learning your reasons, facts, results etc. to back up this claim. 

    What I think I read was just some of the reasons the game of baccarat/roulette is random, and therefore you shouldn�t be able beat a random game.

    When you say you can Never have a successful math system to beat baccarat you are trying to prove a �negative� and that is not easily done.

    It is easier to prove a �positive� like how to use math/statistics to beat baccarat.  This I can do and have done in Part 1 and Part 2 of my series �Use Math/Statistics to beat baccarat/roulette�

    I have been unable to beat baccarat/roulette using random methods.  If you can with your 25 years� experience, knowledge and bankroll, then God Bless, I wish you continued success.

    I don�t have 25 years of life left to devote to learning what you know and most of us don�t have your temperament and bankroll to help us on our journey.

    What I am looking for is a simple, mechanical system that has a mathematical EDGE to win.  I have not found one using random system but using Non-Random systems I can.

    Math is a Non-Random.  Groups of Spins are Non-Random.   A physically biased wheel is Non-Random.

    A Non-Random system does not care what the card count is, it does not care how many 9�s are left, it does not care how often you shuffle, none of these things matter in a Non-Random system.

    Math says 1+1 will always equal 2.  Math says that in 9 spins you will always have an Arithmetic Progression.  Math says that you will have an 2.5/6 edge in using Triplets.

    In my next post in �Use Math/Statistics to beat baccarat/roulette� I will explain more and actually show results of 100,000 spins using the Triplets system. I think with these facts and empirical data you can make up your own mind whether Math/Statistics can help you beat baccarat/roulette.

    Cheers

    Nick

    You know, just the possibilities of what can happen in a bac shoe are in the multi billions, IMO. 

    That is staggering if you really clear your head, sit down and think about it.

    I could not even think of how to set up that math equation, maybe one of the math gurus here can??

    8 decks of cards, remove the first 2 to 11 as the burn cards, cut off the last 15 or so.  416 cards minus, say 25 or so.  How many possibilities on a declining scale does a player actually face?  Huge amounts!  Especially when you are not looking to have optional draws like BJ, etc.

    Why do I bring that up?  Because that sets the premise for attempting to figure anything out.  That is why. 

    Do you remember throwing pennies or quarters against the wall when we were kids?  One day there is a champ and he remains for so long, and then another loser takes over and no one can beat him. 

    What about the grandma at the Atlantic City Bogota back around 2009 rolling 154 rolls?  Did she practice?  What was her research?   How could it happen to a recreational player and not an expert or a professional?  Long list of questions.  Because it just happens.  Why not parlay a few times and then ride it out as it is happening without figuring it all out?

    Don't attempt to beat it.  Try to strike and wager with positive progressions and parlays when you win with the capital you risk each time.  Be sure your buy in affords you numerous chances for your bank roll.  Their is no magical answers or solutions that will afford you guaranteed chances to accumulate or continue wins.  None.  '

    But there are numerous things you can do as I have outlined. 

    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com