Quote from: Albalaha on May 22, 2018, 03:26:06 AM
Hmm. A person with 6% edge against house should bet flat with such an amount that can let him survive in the worst possible scenarios. After an obvious enhancement in the bankroll(due to piling profits), he should increase his base bet and continue to bet flat on that amount. Gradually, the 6% edge and this way of increasing the base bet will optimize his profits and keep him safe as well.

Exactly this.

as.

Itlr, you can't win at a negative edge game no matter what, you can just diliute the inevitable risk of ruin at best.

If someone would think otherwise, he/she could present his/her work to the scientific world, maybe trying to get the Nobel prize worth millions.

The only way to demonstrate that some EV- independent games are beatable is presenting exhaustive studies that in some speicific spots unrandomness prevail to the randomness.

as. 
     








 

Baelog, despite the worthless sample, the trick is to try to reduce huge fluctations in either way.

as.

Thanks Al!

And, LOL, maybe someone should test his/her MMS before posting on this site.

as.

It's very hard to explain strategies coming from years and years of study and play and positive testing.
Frankly if my methods seem to be a bad or a good copy of a worthless strategy invented in the XIX century, I'm totally discouraged.

So I won't go any further.

Lugi: I was referring to the asymmetrical/symmetrical hands distribution with its deviations, an additional tool that IMO helps a lot.

Cheers

as.

Quote from: alrelax on May 09, 2018, 12:15:46 AM
Yes most certainly that is correct. And when you can see extreme value for low-risk and you see it there in front of you as you said it's much easier to walk away with something substantial then sit there and push it back and forth and get sucked in the volatility of the banker player if you didn't start winning and keep winning.

This, this and this.

The statement enlightened in red should be placed below the "Baccarat Forum" section.

as. 

No, no, no no and no. :-)
Of course it's my fault.

In the shoe you posted Lugi (thanks for your interest) and not taking into account additional important shoe per shoe long term statistical situations, I would have won every hand with my #2 plan.

First BB is followed by BBB (W)

Second BB is followed by B (W)

Third BB is followed by BBBB (W)

This is just a "normal" deviation as a fictional player betting after any B double against another B double is W=3 and L=0

Notice that a second fictional player betting against a BB, BB sequence hadn't the opportunity to bet and the same is true for a fictional player betting against a third BB, BB, BB sequence.

After the cutoff point of BB, BB, BB my plan is over, I'm not chasing or hoping to get situations coming out very unlikely. (Strings of 5, 6 or more B doubles could come out sooner or later.

The important thing is that you consider separately those three fictional players with their W and L situations.
Actually and according to my shoe per shoe findings, I play toward clustered winning situations or after a single losing situation.

Plan #1

To take advantage of the very likely situation to get at least one cluster of P 1s and 2s per any single shoe, you have to wait the first condition to appear. That is an apperance of a P single or P double.
In your shoe, first trigger is single P followed by PPPPPPP (a loss), then the second trigger (another P single) is followed by PP (a win). after that we cauldn't care less of what happens next on the same P1-2 streak.

Do you remember what I've stated about the early P 3+ streaks?
More often than not, they are producing a shoe more rich of such streaks than the average expected ratio (4.5 per shoe). Obviously. It's more likely to get strong deviations after an early strong deviation had come out than the opposite situation (there are intricate card distribution issues that confirm this I do not want to talk about).
Since for our #1 plan P 3+ streaks are very bad, I'm less inclined to put in action this plan even if it would have won  after the first L.
Alrelax seemed to agree with that even by considering other aspects.

Notice that with my plans (there are at least a dozen of them) it's far more likely to get a starting W (not here for #1 plan), a WW situation (plan #2), a LW situation (plan #1) as opposed respectively to a starting L, a WL situation and a LL situation.

In addition you see that with my W, WW or LW plan I'm trying to get the best of it not compelling to or forcing the normal expected ratio being W=3 and L=1.
That's because I want to extract a very long winning plan reducing at most the inevitable impact of sequences as WWWWWWWWWWWW or LLLL or LL-LLL-LL that will come out along the way.

Per every starting L, WL or LL events, you expect to get a triple favourable amount of starting W, WW or LW situations. Actually it's even larger than that if the plan dictates to bet banker.
Only the vig reduces the economical return, thus we have to select at most our betting opportunities by a multilayered progression.

@BA.

I know your interesting point, but I think that a 1:32 plan is much more difficult to manage. Maybe I'm wrong.

as.


























   

Quote from: alrelax on May 08, 2018, 03:27:11 AM
Side Wagers is a love-hate relationship as you are totally correct and accurate it can come really quick in the beginning or it won't come at all and you keep attempting and losing your Buy in. The way that I learned how to do it that has benefited me well and a bunch of players is to win some money and set it aside and try for 60 or 70% of the shoe if it did not produce them in the beginning and try the last half or two-thirds of the shoe with the side Wagers. However I like a lot of the side Wagers in the very beginning but if it's the first shoe it's going to be money out of my bank roll or my buy in of course and I'm risking that to make some quick money with the large return on the side Wagers.

Thanks Al, that's interesting.   

After all, house cannot prevent side bets to come out clustered and players cannot prevent to get those side bets silent for long.
The problem arises when we want to chase the silent world and/or not taking fully advantage of the clustering effect.

Maybe it's more an art than a science.

I'm sure that people lose a lot more money on B/P hands than on side bets for one simple reason:
it's easier to quit the game after winning some side bets (or noticing they are not coming) whereas it's very hard to know how to quit or stay wagering B/P hands that are a lot more probable and thus more dangerous.

as. 






   

Hi BA and thanks for your interesting comments.

Nope, my methods  have nothing to share with avantderniere.
For example, AD strategy dictates to bet after a 3 streak in order to get more hands on the same streak. And it doesn't take into account the actual distribution or the expected average distribution.

More importantly, B and P sides are very different from a 1s-2s-3s distribution point of view.
Try to bet against P doubles by wagering P singles and P triples or B 3+ streaks wagering B singles and B doubles and let me know if it doesn't make any difference which side you are betting on itlr.

What it counts, imo, is the average distribution of a given series of shoes and not what happens within a single shoe or a couple of shoes, no matter how deep are such very short term deviations.
If after two shoes the number of B doubles is 25 and only two B 3+ streaks had come out, I won't bet a dime.
Actually such huge deviated ratio comes out from few clustered B double patterns and "few" means huge short term variance that cannot be balanced shortly.

I'm not focused on "how many" but always on the word "how".

as.   

 

I think he was unlucky to be lucky with those 200:1 shots.

It's quite simple to understand that B/P hands cannot be beaten so easily (or nothing at all), however side bets seem to be fantastic to recover losses or to make fair profits, unfortunately in the wrong hands they lead to disaster more rapidly.

I observed in Vegas that many former huge B/P bettors now prefer to make progressions on side bets. Many of them quit the game after hitting one.
I remember a regular middle age asian woman hitting a F-7 for $800 then leaving the table but making the huge mistake to observe the table and not to go home.
Next hands of the shoe produced the like of 5-6 panda bets and a couple more of F-7s.
She was cursing and cursing and so disturbed to make a second error, that is to join the closest table where a new shoe was ready to be dealt.
Naturally no one side bet came, and no one side bet came on the very next shoe.
At least she was so smart to finally going home losing just a small amount.

Al, how many consecutive real live shoes have you seen without at least one panda or one F-7?
Thanks!

as.

Perfect, BA!

That's another aspect of what I was talking about.

My patterns are just the best (imo) way (and more are coming) to get the best of it providing a careful assessment of what happened in the past.

Actually take any pattern you want, the more shoes you play/observe, better is the probability to get a kind of balancement ratio, especially if some patterns are more likely than  others.

Say we have a fictional player betting toward B singles and B 3s after any B double appearance.
That is we do not want to get one or more consecutive B doubles in a row.

This player is going to cross a 25% unfavorite/75% favorite ratio no matter what.
Actually there will be more B 3s than B singles after a B doubles, yet a card finite deck must act in some way in either direction.

Such player will get a finite number of isolated B doubles and a finite number of 2-in-a-row or superior B doubles. And so on.
Since the expected ratio is always 3:1, we know that itlr isolated B doubles will be almost equal to superior clustered B doubles.

Easy to see that splitting the outcomes into precise patterns will help us to restrict the variance.

For somewhat "weird" reasons, B doubles are going to distribute more balanced than other balancements.

The same for a fictional player betting toward two B doubles in a row vs the superior counterparts.

The process is more controllable up to 3 B doubles in a row vs the superior counterparts.

Since the overall slight baccarat propensity is to get opposite outcomes than previous ones, our 1-level, 2-level and 3-level fictional players are going to get more balanced results than expected.

In a word, we are trying to control the randomness as we are taking into account precise results itlr.
In fact, every single pattern (whatever considered) will fight against the same opposite situation up to a point where a given deviation MUST come back.
So there are no positive or negative patterns, just ratios.

Of course a 3:1 general probability might come out in clusters or isolated and the same happens (now in long term reversed situations) for the counterparts.

Since sooner or later unfavorite patterns must come out clustered to balance the more likely situations happening along the way, we know that our best strategy will be to hope to get such unfavorite pattarns being either isolated or not coming at all (up to a point).

Thus, our fictional players might start the betting process after having resistered that a given number of unfavorite events had come out, possibly by long clusters or in long alternating forms.

Try to test your shoes.
You start the $10 betting after a 4-5 opposite situation ratio had come out per each level of patterns, tripling the standard bet everytime you have lost the attempt.
If you triple up your wagers everytime after every single pattern had gotten a 4 or 5 to zero ratio, you are not going to encounter long negative situations by any means.

If you use the blue angel approach, your resistance to unfavorite situations will last a lot more.

Actually a possible martingaling tripling approach versus a superior 3-in-a-row B doubles approach after a 4-5 deviation had occurred  cannot cross any failure, providing you'll have the patience to wait. Guaranteed.

as. 







 

@blueangel. Hi!

Actually my super hyper over selected betting plan dictates to consider a single shoe just as a single leaf of a branch, the tree begins to form after 20-30 or more shoes and the forest is just the product of many many trees.

I'm not presenting magical patterns to chase, I've found such patterns as the best tools to greatly increse the probability of success that can't be anything else than the mathematical reflexes of what can happen or not happen per certain range of shoes.

I'm not guessing or chasing anything as I know very well the standard deviation values of those patterns, whether they'll come out isolated, in clusters, in clusters of isolated events or in clustered clusters. Everything per each single level of statistical apparition.

To explain the idea in clearer words, I'm betting from zero to 1 spot per single shoe. Always if my strict conditions are met.

In the 50.68/49.32 infinite process something is going to happen more likely than not even though our mathematical expectation will be negative no matter what.

as.

Quote from: Jimske on April 28, 2018, 03:54:44 PM
Looks good Assym.  One reason, as you point out, is the common occurrences of 1's and 2's - representing 50% of decisions.  By my way of thinking it is good to have a benchmark, a starting plan.  That way there is structure, something that can be explained.  You recognize there needs to be adjustments, fictional bets, MM, whatever.

Nope, P 1s and 2s represent more than 75% of total decisions.
In a perfect simmetrical model, 1s and 2s on each side are 75% of the total outcomes.

as.

It's about Banker doubles distribution.

B doubles are fighting between B 3+ streaks and B singles.

Test your shoes and let me know how many times a B doubles will be followed by another B double streak or anything else.

No wonder, most of the time any B double will be followed by a pattern different to another B double streak up to a 4 level.

I mean that after a B double had come out,  the more likely scenario on subsequent B hand will be to get a B 3+ streak or a B single at different degrees.

We could classify such B doubles in such a way:

1- B double followed by another B double;

2- a couple of consecutive B doubles followed by another B double;

3- a triple of consecutive B doubles followed by another B double.

In a word, each class of B double situation will get a more likely different B double situation than expected and the more we are going deeply in the process the better will be our results.

Say we set up three fictional players betting toward NOT having another B double after a B double appearance by a 1-2 wager progression.

Number #1 player will lose whenever after a B double another B double will come out.

Number #2 player will lose whenever after a couple of B doubles a third B double will come out;

Number #3 player will lose whenever after a triple B double a fourth B double will come out.

Test your shoes and you'll notice that 4+ B doubles in a row will come out very very rarely.
It's up to us to determine how deep will be our loss.

The probability to get multiple B doubles in a row is inversely proportional to the number of B consecutive doubles.

Thus, a profitable and less risky plan is to bet after having waited that two or three B doubles had come out in a row.

Nonetheless, many shoes are presenting a single B double appearance.

Again, after a given deviation was reached, the probability to get something different than a B double is endorsed.

We want to set up a limit, that is a very unlikely 4+ consecutive B doubles appearance. After such limit was reached, we do not want to bet a dime.
As a 7 or more B doubles appearance could easily destroy our previous more likely profits.

Notice that per every class of distributions, a clustering effect will be in order, no matter what.
I mean that it will more likely to get single B double situations if a single B double situation had come out and the same happens for superior levels.

Moreover, B doubles are more likely to come out in clusters whenever few B singles had come out in the previous fragments of the shoe and vice versa.

Alrelax is right. What didn't happen so far is less likely to show up as a finite shoe is always a card dependent proposition and vice versa.

Actually and after millions of shoe tested,  the number of situations when consecutive B doubles are followed by single or 2-in a row B doubles are out numbered by the same opposite events.

What didn't happen could happen but what did happen could more easily happen again. Providing a careful classification of what we are registering.

as.     

   











   

       

Thanks for the huge interest on this humble post.

Believe me, the stupi.d strategy presented here (and more are coming) will get the best of it itlr with 1 million accuracy.

Say you put in action a player betting toward P 1s and 2s in any order toward getting at least a two pattern sequence and such player is eager to get a profit no matter what, so progressively increasing the bet forever and ever.
Like a 1-2, 4-8, 16-32, 64-128, 256-512 betting plan....

To lose (that is to not cross at least a favorite situation in 5 consecutive attempts) we need to test a lot of shoes.

Sooner or later such unfavourable and very unlikely situation will happen, destroying our previous profits.

Good.

But remember that per every class of 3:1 single losing situation, a more likely proportional winning situation will happen along the way.

We are acting with probabilities on our side, despite what mathematics dictates.

Actually, the number of two P 1s-2s  clusters will overcome the number of opposite situations.

Utilizing a more sensibile approach set up in order to reduce variance, say that the number of 1-2 P clusters will overcome the number of P superior classes. It's a sure long term finding. 

In a word, we are betting that P 3+ streaks are more likely to come out quite dispersed or at least with a pace different from 1 to the rest (where the rest is every possible situation, that is any combination of 1s and 2s superior than one).

Notice that consecutive 3+ P patterns aren't going to produce us any harm as we are not starting any betting.

Generally speaking, we do not want to bet toward what it didn't happen so far, as 2 level must come out after a 1 and not after a zero.

The more the actual shoe tend to produce zero o 1 situations, higher will be the propensity to not bet a single dime.

Remember that surely the more likely happens in clusters, but at the same time sh.it happens in clusters and a single shoe is just a minuscule part of the whole picture.

as.