The Van Keelen Test

Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.

Beside the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.

The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system, and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!

The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.

The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!
To check a system over 1000 spins, has no meaning!

This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.

With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.

Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):
A system indicates a genuine superiority:
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained*

My Notes ...

So close, I peak at 70 units during 963 placed bets, flat betting, now assume I would use a smooth progression, then it would take forever to lose.
For example 11111 22222 33333 44444 55555

 

 

To clarify, if you see a hand that you do not have confidence in, would you pass on that and wait for a better hand?  Thanks.

I would state that is much better to wait and hold back when you are not sure.
Not bet and if you follow the shoe a new free event to read to make sure you are heading in the right direction.

This first image shows how you catch strikes flat betting.

 


This second image shows a positive progression, flat betting twice then raise one-half unit.

 

This third image shows Regression Up and Pull.

 

The last image shows a four-step Paroli.

 

Hi Sputnik,
Thanks for your posting,
You mean, if we just bet baccarat,
Only play , PLAYER,
then we mark them as S , for single player, and M for series of players,
Then see how it behave.

Thus we have say,
SSMMMSMSMSSMMMSMSMSSSSMMMMMSSSS,
what kind of variance and the ecart that you had experienced.
Thanks.

You make one S letter and one M letter then use how many times you get of each.

S 14121136424
M 2153421124

1 stand for two single or one series of three or higher
2 stand for four singles or two series of three or higher
And so on

So, for example, M 534 is five series of three or higher and after that some singles and next series we get three series of three or higher and so on.
Assume you play a positive progression and you are in heaven.

Sequence:

You have heard about a choppy table where singles and series of two-strike for several times in a row.
Also probably heard about streaky tables where one color strikes for several times in a row.

The Median Value:

I have been measuring singles versus a series of three and find a middle value between both, the cut point median value.
Two singles have 50% probability to happen versus a series of three in a row.
A series of three have 50% probability to happen versus two singles in a row.

Singles and Multiples

A single outcome is on isolated event of one color hit and multiples is at least a series of two or more in a row.
With this method and strategy series of two works as break even bets in both directions, no matter is singles or series dominate.
Series of two are neutral.

Enter and Exit points:

Entering points for observation to see one state or wave of one sequence to hit once or several times in a row.
Starts with either two singles or a series of three or higher.

Clarification, after you see two singles you have 50% probability they will continue to strike several times in a row.
After seeing a series of three or higher you will have 50% probability the series will continue to strike for several times in a row.

Summary:

Now you can see variance and read the even money like an open book.

Streaky sequence:

P
P
P

B

P
P

B
B
B
B
B

P
P

B
B
B

Choppy sequence:

P

B

P

B
B

P
P

B

P
P


B

P

B
B

Note:

When tracking and charting singles and multiplies you can use the letters S for singles and M for multiplies.
The Choppy Sequence is different than others as you can play one side by itself without making any bets on the opposite side.
That is a good option for playing Player side with no fee, also worked great with Trading and Sportbetting.

Alrelax thanks for taking time and effort to explain.

I like the method of taking 1/3 out of the winning pot and continue with what remains.
Will try this my self.
 
I don't fully understand you staking strategy, but i assume you play 1326 at Banker or Player side and on the other side you play up as you go, for example, 12345 on a winning, if not you flat betting 1111  and 1326 kick in - everything between loses or break even.
Is this correct or am I missing something or did I misunderstand your staking strategy?

Cheers 

Yes now I can comprehend what you wrote and it was very nice expressed.

I will put it further and stretch thing a little bit.
Take clockwise direction and anti-clockwise direction with roulette in Europe.
That is a counter measurement by the casino against the advantage players using physics.

The conclusion is that you have two random streams mixing everything together into chaotic variance with two independent random bits distribution.
You should play one stream independently from the other as they produce the same results with less confusion and chaotic variance.

In fact, I see this for the same reason advantage player separate Clockwise direction and Anticlockwise direction.
The reason is that rotor and ball spin different and the dominant drop zone might be different from the other direction, so that's different physics parameters.

With random bits where one stream is connected within itself (victim to the law of series) and produce the same results as regular distribution, should not be confused and mixed with another opposite side that produces same results independently.
One comparison would be that in Las Vegas do they spin the ball/rotor in one direction without the counter measuring clockwise and anticlockwise that is common in Europe.

Take trading for example, if I learn and master to play one single stream, I am only allowed to place my bet on one side at all times, in one way that would be the price change going up and the other side would be the price change going down. To make a comparison trading currency versus even money.

See how beautiful the streams look separated from each other.

P 116112321512112142141312411311342443314111322211453311111216341132112132133141
B 1233123132521211316112421223113333142512221241121113774445321123111231111211215

Me talking about risk and reward with up and downs trading is about scalping where you take advantage of choppy sequences or small price changes to add up to serious money.
Scalping is an art that is very similar towards advance trending using different gambling concepts.

Cheers