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76
General Discussion / Re: The way to beat the ECs
« on: July 29, 2018, 10:33:51 am »

moglizy I believe that you can flat betting and you find a method.
But I had difficult to understand your method.

Cheers

77

I just agree with everything you wrote.

Cheers

78

Nice video!

Quote
(I should have bet again as the next number was also odd) but I lost my nerve!

Assume you would push and press for more up as you win and in the same time regress, then maybe you would not lose your nerve.
For example, betting 1 unit, then on a winning push to 2 units. Next, you bet 1.5 unit and pocket 1.5 unit and assume you win you bet 3 units.
Assume you win again, then you have 4.5 units in front of you and pocket 2 units and place 2.5 units next.
As you can see after each double win you pocket some winnings without risking your own money to push and press for more.
This I see on youtube with a craps video betting the field and the positive progression solutions come from the famous Dice Doctor.

Cheers

79
General Discussion / Re: Bias emerge and strike!
« on: July 23, 2018, 03:28:24 pm »
Quote
Bias, to me is seeing it as it is happening, not wagering for it.  As it happens, just say I was flat betting a few hands.  It started.  I won 3 hands straight and I now see the bias, whatever it might be.  The correction, the abnormality, the curve, the rarity, whatever it is--does not matter one bit.  (That is where so many, most all, players go wrong.  They are trying to define and figure it out.) 

We are different gamblers, for example, Gizmo talks about his global effect and I talk about my methodology.
You mention sides bets and parlays that is a different approach.

I am referring to Sputnik's March and don't play hide and seek games with anyone.
After proving that two events out of three can strike several times in a row and create a true bias I got 6K views and very little replies.

Quote
So I won the 3 hands flat betting.  Say I was at $150.00 a hand as an example.  I am up $450.00 for that section.  I will take the $450.00 and split it into 4 units of $110.00 each and use those 4 wagers of $110.00 for my (1 + 4 Side Parlay) wagering for the striking attempts.  One successful (1 + 4 Side Parlay) will get me $3,520.00 if I am not mistaking.  Yes, some of the wagers will have to be sacrificed, some flat bets and possibly one or more of the (1 + 4 Side Parlay) attempts.  Progression and a continuance (1 + 4 Side Parlay) is a lot to ask to come out of.  But when something is hitting, don't be scared, scared to win-scared to wager, IMO is the worst thing a player can subscribe to.


I read this several times and still don't get it.
Why and how does someone make side bets and play both sides at the same time?
If I understand you correctly and not misunderstand your way to play the game.

Quote
But as far as a striking, that is something along the lines as to what I would do.  Rather than a planned attack.  Planned attacks to me are extremely difficult and usually do not work out.


I consider my way so clever and advance that I considering apply them into Trading and Sportbetting with a combination of trading techniques and value betting.

80
General Discussion / Bias emerge and strike!
« on: July 23, 2018, 01:27:39 pm »
Yesterday in the casino I test my new twist to catch strikes spotting bias sequences.
I was using Regression Up & Pull and got a quick 20% return on investment and quit.

Getting away flat betting riding strikes alone, but I want out more when I strike 5,6,8 times in a row.
Not satisfied with the known positive progressions, so if you know a variant that is not listed, plz let me know.

1) Regression Up & Pull
2) Win two flat betting and increase one-half unit - up as you win
3) Paroli
4) 1326
5) Guetting

Now I look at some craps videos on youtube and the Dice Doctor has a nice positive progression with a twist.
First, you bet 1 unit and if you win you increase and bet 2 units.
Assume you win both bets and are up 3, then you staking 1,5 next if a win you bet 3 and that sum up to 4,5.
Then next you bet 2,5 and if you win 5 then you have 7,5 and place 4 next.
Push for more at the same time as you regress, very clever.

Cheers


81

Yes, I understand, assume someone knows how to flat betting. then there will still be variance and fluctuation, even when Caleb play a biased wheel that has a defect he and his team will face variance and fluctuation, that is part of the game.
He might use Kelly Staking Plan to optimal he's game having a positive expectation.
Then what is the difference if someone increases a smooth conservative staking plan playing EC if he also takes advantage out of bias sequences that last for very long periods with occasional drawdowns.

There are more examples, take sports betting where you have "value betting" to determine if a bet will win or lose.
Where one player won 16 months using a smooth staking plan.
I assume he triple his money during that period of time.

We all know everything loses in the long run, but for example, 16 months of action is part of the short run.
And I reckon he was satisfied even if he's staking plan finally tank.

The debate is not about using or not using a staking plan, is about tackle variance and fluctuation even when you know how to spot bias.
That is my opinion.

82
The following is an old post of mine as to my opinion as to how to beat the casino......there are probably other methods, but this is one I prefer


"Follow these 6 steps and you have a good long term chance  of beating the casino at any game,...... dice, baccarat, sicbo etc


1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.

2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at
a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology  such as
111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they must all be conservative.

3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown flat betting

In the above example, your bankroll should be at least  $ 1,500
 ( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )

4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream,  and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.

5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses

6. You must have patience to follow your money management plan and not go on "tilt" like poker players who are on a losing streak.

Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.

Number 6 above, patience, is probably the most important......trying to make up a drawdown by raising your bets too large and too fast and neglecting your money management, methodology will probably ruin any chance or achieving profitability.

Also, if you are using a progression betting system ( like a labby, reverse labby, upside down labby, conservative martingale etc etc) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.

Using a betting methodology where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a  bad baccarat shoe requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting.........and a very, very large bankroll.

The higher the risk, the higher the bankroll required.

So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps."

Can you be more exact on what kind of progression you apply?
I have been testing Holloways Progression and considering memorize it.
As with my test, there is always a reversal playing bias tables.

83
Roulette Forum / Re: delectus: random vs automated wheel
« on: July 20, 2018, 02:27:30 pm »
Quote
I am going to the casino's more often now using parameters based on the probability "process".
It will become a full-time job. Will keep posting here from time to time.

Again you see someone who dreams about gamble as a full-time job.
But does anyone know what it takes?

My main concern about gamble as a pro is the pension when you are going to retire.

You have to understand when you work for a living you get score point at your government that will turn into how much pension you will get reaching 65 years of age.
Let's say you get 1500 Euro each month and live to 90, that is 25 years.
One year has 12 months and you would earn 18000 Euro a year and that is 450000 Euro during the 25 year period.

This means you have to win and save 4,5 million in gambling money to live an independent life at older days.
Now you might argue that you can continue to play the games after 65 years of age.
Then you don't know how your health will be, getting old and you don't have the same strength as when you are young.

I keep my day job and play to have an extra income and when i reach 65 years of age i can live an independent lifestyle with regular income with no worries or have to gamble/work to earn money.

84
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
« on: July 17, 2018, 11:47:29 am »
Yes, there is with the modifications.
What I wrote is the raw blueprint to show existing bias.

I will give you one example but not a complete solution, there are many tiny adjustments to a hole solution.
For example, take only the sequence when a series of three or higher with singles strike when you divide the random bits into sections and turning points.
Then after one series most of the times will be followed by a new series within that state as they will be biased most of the times.
Now if you would jump on board the first formation of three in a row that would be expensive as you would need two bets to cover both situations for the next series of two to become a higher series if the first bet loses. Yes, I say expensive because you need to reduce your bets and still have the opportunity and reason to strike available.
Now assume you get a series of three and a series of two where you lose one bet, in this situation you have a new state, series to chop and is another bet to strike several times in a row.
So with one singles bet or at most two bets you can cover two states and strike several times in a row where there is bias present.

Cheers

85
Dice Games Forum / Parachute
« on: July 16, 2018, 04:23:48 pm »
Binomial calculation.

Any tripple will appear, odd 30 to 1 = 1 in 25 attempts
6 or 15, odds 18 to 1 = 1 in 12 attempts
7 or 14, odds 12 to 1 = 1 in 8 attempts
8 or 13, odds 8 to 1 = 1 in 6 attempts
10 or 11, odds 6 to 1 = 1 in 4 attempets
The specific number 123456 will appear on one, two or three dice. odds 2 to 1 = 1 in 2 attempts
Big/Small = 1 in 1 attenpts

I want to test this strategy but can not find any online Sic Bo for free play or free download.

Cheers


86
General Discussion / Re: Sequence
« on: July 14, 2018, 06:10:12 pm »
Suggestion:  Try adding 'sections/turning points' to your efforts.

Hello Alrelax, what does it mean and how to use "section/turning points" to your efforts?
If you have time can you explain more in detail?

Many Thanks

87
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
« on: July 14, 2018, 12:26:06 pm »
The Van Keelen Test

Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.

Beside the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.

The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system, and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!

The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.

The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!
To check a system over 1000 spins, has no meaning!

This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.

With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.

Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):
A system indicates a genuine superiority:
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained*

My Notes ...

So close, I peak at 70 units during 963 placed bets, flat betting, now assume I would use a smooth progression, then it would take forever to lose.
For example 11111 22222 33333 44444 55555

 

 

88
General Discussion / Re: Sequence
« on: July 14, 2018, 02:38:22 am »
In Casino last night.

Well, I am embarrassed that I did not know this!
Was going to play positive progression using two units of flat betting and then raise one-half unit after each win.

And it did not take long until I start to strike, but they did not allow me to put one and a half unit on the table.
I play with 10 Euro minimum chips and was putting 15 Euro on the table wish they did not accept.
They only accept even hole amounts.

Just wanted to test my new approach in reality.

89
Baccarat Forum / Re: 1-2-4-8 and others Vs. 1-3-2-6
« on: July 13, 2018, 02:06:35 pm »
To clarify, if you see a hand that you do not have confidence in, would you pass on that and wait for a better hand?  Thanks.

I would state that is much better to wait and hold back when you are not sure.
Not bet and if you follow the shoe a new free event to read to make sure you are heading in the right direction.

90
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
« on: July 13, 2018, 09:13:31 am »

I solve the puzzle, now I can play positive progressions or just flat betting my way to heaven.

 

    

 

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