Hi Al, welcome back 

Yes, people tend to bet too many hands hoping that trends/antitrends last forever (or at least until a loss or a couple of losses come out).

Obviously the concept of trends/antitrends doesn't exist at all, it's just a human concept set up to try to guess more hands than expected and normally it doesn't work.

In any instance almost any pattern move around a long term 0 sum (of course B patterns tend to be longer than P patterns), yet it's impossible to catch the infinite sub distributions unless we'll try to "limit" trends/antitrends by a lenght factor.

The process accumulating wins must be very slow, so once we've secured a win or few wins we have to defend it as it's more likely to encounter short W sequences than long W sequences.
Long W successions work as a sort of "jackpot", the same way slot machines act.

I mean that the risk of jeopardazing a temporary profit within too short terms (or costant gaps)  would be higher than the reward of getting more wins by exploiting long W sequences.

Even worse is trying to catch favourable situations within too short terms when we're losing because the process of getting a fair number of W after a steady L status do not work in the majority of the times.

Mathematics teaches us about the value of the Maximum Bold Strategy applied to any EV- game (betting everything just in one hand).

More later

as.

As you wrote:

"At baccarat bighorn.sh.it happens just in the eye of the beholder. Since we can choose from an infinite amount of random walks and wagering whenever we wish and with the amount we wish, the strategy cannot be prevented by any kind of "perfect" randomness."

And that is exactly the way it is, 100% of the time no matter what is or what is not occurring. 

The sole problem 99.99.9/10ths of all bac players is, that they continue with far too many wagers past what they should, after they so called got the pattern/trend or the 'anti-trend', etc., all figured out as to what is going to happen. 

Period.

Suppose we want to compare a black jack shoe with a baccarat shoe.

At bj, things are pretty straightforward: when the shoe is rich of aces and 10-value cards we'll get an edge (or at least we're supposed to get it) and vice versa when the shoe is rich of low cards.
Unfortunately here we have to bet any hand dealt and whenever the true count is going toward our side (nearly 12-15% of the times), raising our bet will make suspicious the house.
In addition, we can't know if the actual bj positive count could be distributed by a kind of L-N-H or N-L-H cards distribution (L= low cards, N= a mix of H/L cards, H= high cards relegated into the final (unplayable) portion of the shoe.
Thus we think to play with an edge whereas it's not.

At baccarat bighorn.sh.it happens just in the eye of the beholder.
Since we can choose from an infinite amount of random walks and wagering whenever we wish and with the amount we wish, the strategy cannot be prevented by any kind of "perfect" randomness.

Paradoxically we could cross better EV+ spots by waiting that S clusters of some lenght had happened at the same considered line, especially if the total count of A/S patterns was moderately/heavily shifted toward the right S side.

By selectively playing the A side we are challenging the production to deal multiple consecutive S patterns of different shape happening at specific lines, a thing that can easily come out by throwing an unbiased coin but never ever at a bac proposition unless for rare coincidental factors and for limited ranges.

A or S pattern steps

As we've seen there are two betting steps to ascertain whether a next pattern will be A or S, first step is slightly more likely to produce a win than a loss so in some sense we could consider the second betting step as a "backup" plan.

Registering the first or second bet result at any line considered is an additional tool to be more precise in our selection, thus enlarging our edge after a kind of strong deviation happened at either side of operations.
It's like to halve the negative deviations at the obvious cost of missing many favourable opportunities.

For example, it's extremely unlikely to encounter 1-step or 2-step S different patterns longer than 4 or 5 at each step, yet we should be prepared to face the most unlikelihood.

Think to run the same situation infinite times giving a damn about short term results.
If the production is considered as unguessable, long term results will mirror the expected results but it's not the case. 

Since you're not forced to bet any hand, in order to enlarge your probability of success you can wait for some negative deviations to happen before placing your precious money at either the #1 or #2 step (or both).
       
Do not fall into the trap of wagering something because you're called to unless a minimum bet is at least 10x inferior to your standard betting amount.

More hands you'll bet lesser will be the accuracy of catching the good instead of the bad.

as. 

QuoteHi Asym

Casinos like randomness and randomness dislikes patterns.



that's a great gambling quote.

Thanks, KFB, thanks!

The problem is that IMO more often than not real random productions are likely to STOP patterns instead of prolonging them. Especially at baccarat where the production is finite for the average key cards impact and surely asym based for the rules (B>P).

as.

Casinos like randomness and randomness dislikes patterns.

                                    --AsymBacGuy

Hi Asym

Casinos like randomness and randomness dislikes patterns.



that's a great gambling quote.

Hi AsymBacGuy--I hope u are doing well at the tables.

You are correct. This shoe had several strong deviations. I track shoes so that I can readily see streak distributions more promptly.

I went 14-6(W-L) on this shoe which is a significantly better hit rate than is typical (for me) as well as more wagers per shoe than is typical. I track every wager, hit rate, deviation,..etc.  Most shoes if I make say 10-12 wagers my hit rate is often something like 7-5 or 5-7, 7-6,5-4, 3-5...etc. 
I wagered more than usual and actually had a couple misses (against) on the longer streaks before going with the deviation for a few consecutive Ws. I did not follow the streaks to their very end because of several atypical profiles being presented. The long singles run I actually started incrementally regressing my wager all the way back down to near my base unit/didn't want to regress below my base unit. Plus the streak was so abnormal I felt confident it "must end sometime".

A couple of the events I looked back and thought: "How did I miss that ________",....etc. 

________________________________________________________________________________________

0=B , 1=P, 3 Ties that are not shown in the following as I transferred this manually from my scoring card.

000000011001 0 111111 0

1 0 1001 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 1 0 11 0

11 0 11 0 1 0 1 0 11 0 11 0 1 0 11 0 1

0 110010000100

______________________________________________________________





Continued Success To All,

Casino owners do not fear anything but occasional HS players getting an unusual high number of long streaks and, maybe, productions privileging the S patterns coming out steadily.
Everything else, the so called "unguessable chaotic world" will go at their favor.

Therefore in some sense it might be better to bet towards the "everything else" than the remanining situations.
Providing to know when and how such remaining situations should be more likely to show up.

More later

as.

Backing out of my buddies garage to go to the casino.  Yeah, nice ride for sure.  Absolutely mint in every way.

Here it is and it is audacity with a capital 'A'. 

But fees and service charges will be charged and paid by those because, well.............just because.

https://www.casino.org/vitalvegas/fees-gone-wild-mgm-resorts-charges-for-plates-forks-and-napkins/