As KungFu commented and most others would agree, I frequently see those 4/5s on Bankers first two cards causing the greatest disagreements/confusion above all else.

I note almost every session with players having lengthy play experience, they call for pulls, although not an argument they are saying, "you have to pull-why are you not pulling". 

It is really simple, Bankers with a 4 pulls if the Players 3rd card is a 2-7 and Bankers with a 5 pulls if the Players 3rd card is a 4-7. 

What I also notice is the Players 3rd card of 8.  If the Bankers have a two card 3-4-5, then many of the same people generally are thinking the Bankers must pull. 

Most mistakes/mistaken

1) Play too long

If one thinks to play with an edge it doesn't matter how short or long are the sessions played, providing that the mental focus isn't declining for fatigue or bankroll status issues.

Absolutely, to clarify my statement was NOT made to only endorse a short/session play. It took into consideration; fatigue, emotions, losses/wins, as well as the bankroll and buy-in status, etc.  Also something that I determine in the beginning of most any session is winning, losing, or hovering around even. Whatever happens quickly will make a determination in my mind which way I should go with the length of the session. As weird as it sounds, that took me a long time to even figure out.

2) Chasing losses

Yep.
Card distributions are totally insensitive of our bankroll status and statistically speaking it's slight more probable to collect more losses after losing than to recoup everything or something already lost.

In addition, if lost, (IF) and make that a huge if, you recoup be careful at the point right there. So so many times I have done just that, recouped and then aggressively went after a win. Nope, gave it all back countless times and never to recoup a second time. Remember that please.

3) Chasing a singular win

Sooner or later we'll have to stop a losing sequence, that doesn't mean to chase losing streaks that can last 10-12 or more hands in a row.
3/4 of the times, winning is a clustered W affair, so there's no reason to bet when a L streak keep showing up or (more importantly) when wins come out as isolated. 

True about the clustered win affairs. Reference Thad not betting after an L or L streak. Fine line, however if no bet-no wins. Does that put you into a more 'alert' and/or attentive status and the such? It does me at times, but no one relishes to be in the L status and streak.

4) When it's there, you fail to wager and/or pump it up.

Here the problem is knowing "when is there" but the main factor why casinos keep collecting more money than expected by the HE is because players will be particularly aggressive when losing but cautious (or overly aggressive) while winning.

IMO and experience, must pump it up while winning. Flat goes back to cover losses, so those wins are only a short time, (within a section) protection and fuel. My real wins are the ones that are substantial ones and they come from positive progressions and parlaying my win money on top of the base unit when I get on win streaks.

A person needs to strengthen and support their buy-in with wins. Wins that are quickly accumulated will be much easier by far with positive progressions and parlaying than those accumulated by flat betting. Because of those wins accumulated by flat betting also have to cover the losses occurred currently, while attempting to cover those previously. Hence. The grind!



5) When it's not (NOT) there, you fail to stop

Excellent point.
Whenever it seems we're not guessing right a single hand, stay put and don't bet a dime.
Wait several hands before betting again or, even better, wait for the next shoe to be dealt.
The concept that every shoe dealt is beatable is a total complete bighornsh.i.t.

6) Constantly increasing Bankroll and Buy-in amounts

Another good point.
It takes a robust and verified long term W/L ratio before thinking to raise our standard bets as the house is constantly getting the favorite math side.

7) Failure to have a rock solid M.M.M.

In our opinion and after having verified a kind of an edge (and natural deviations), the best move to take is flat betting the maximum limit at the table. Or what we consider "max" in relationship of our bankroll.

Flat betting in my opinion should not be max table limit. But I guess one needs to examine how long his play will be and if he can as well, as how many possible wins/losses he can stand doing such with his current buy-in.

#8) Failure to Reset and/or abide by your Tier/Plateau

Here we disagree.
We do not want to insert subjective factors into the game, unless affecting our future strategy (but since we've ascertained an edge we know that any kind of subjective adjustment will be worthless)

More explanations and detailing out I wish to do. We all have them and most don't even know what tier and plateaus are within their play. What we are comfortable with, what our buy-in supports. What and how easy the wins were and how much we won. Example, buy-in $2,500, drawdown $750, won $3,000. Sitting with $4,750 on the rail. If you are comfortable and desire the $1,750 call it a session, done and finished. Cash out.

However, I would play if I wasn't struggling. I would go back to my plateau with the $2500 buy-in. Make it whole again.  $1,750 now locked up in my pocket. I would revert back to a smaller base unit wager than what I won the $1,750 with (taking into consideration whatever amount that was, was my base betting unit). If I won two straight wagers, I would parlay one, and then just go with the third one on, pulling down the winning amounts. So say I had previously been wagering $300-$500 range, that I accumulated the $1,750 win with and the buy-in drawdown I recovered, I remain totally conscious of that base unit and the comfortableness and security it afforded/affords my wagering.

I don't subscribe to nor do I flat bet with real consistency.  I want the wins to compile quick and fast, I want the losses to be as small as possible. 

Continuing the example from above.  Back down to a 'base' wager (hence not a flat betting amount), say $200 and win, next wager $400 and win, sitting with a final bet of $800.  My next wager would either be $500 or the whole $800. If I won, it goes along with another $500 out of my $2,500 original buy-in sitting there and $2,000 of that goes into my pocket, for a total of $3,750 locked up. If I lost, my rail money would be $2,000 or $2,300 if the bet was $500 and I would attempt another win streak with that amount at my disposal. If I could not win additional with that rail money, so be it. If I did, once again sort out additional amounts won to lock up with the $3,750 while increasing my amount on the rail.

When I am winning multiple hands, I go well above my plateau. However when I am not winning, I revert/stay or perhaps go under my plateau level.  IMO and My Experience............Win MORE, Lose LESS. 

Reason Being.  IMO and Experience, you can win, lose or draw even for a session. REALITY.  WINNING. We all desire to win. Generally, winning requires a drawdown of your buy-in. Generally, winning will be accompanied by losing hands as well. Losing happens and none of us desire that. Of course gamblers with greater experience expect just that and accept it with anticipation and even strategic use. Others, losing just several hands can and will cause devastation to their buy-in amount(s).  BREAKING EVEN. Always talked about, seldom an outcome for those that came to gamble in a casino. Breaking even is usually a temporary status between winning and complete buy-in loss. I'm talking hard-core and real-life facts here. 

For myself, IMO and I stress my experience, your tier/plateau should be considered as an advantage for your play as well as incorporated into your rocksolid MMM.

Tier/Plateaus can be your second nature guide for some kind of wagering position guide, when you are not on a wild win streak.

Tier/Plateaus can be your second nature 'go to' betting amount when you have no feeling or you entered the inevitable losing hand realm. 

Well laid out with interviews of the 'common people'. 

Ready, Set, Don't Go Vegas.  Your blowing it.  Seriously.

So SPOT-ON was the following comment:  "Marketing to the elite, big spenders, is a great strategy until you realize there just aren't enough of them, and you now realize you're business success was built on the everyday consumer/tourist, and those people have moved on to more affordable travel opportunities.  Vegas can't afford to cut prices enough to bring back the tourists they have lost.  Their business model is broken, and it will be a continuous spiral down to a slow death."

Click on the link below.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wybM85qX_tQ

"In the real world a succession as WWWLWWWLWWWL...is not going to show up so frequently (actually it's very unlikely to happen), yet it remains the "standard" to look for."

The win pattern might not appear as you outlined (3W:1L) with frequency and/or consistently, longer W's can and do appear with 1/2 L's stuck in between.  IMO, to 'look for' a standard in W's is not to a persons best interest.


"When W is consistent, W streaks are longer than 3; when W is limping, W streaks tend to be shorter than 3." 

Absolutely, spot on.  Such as 5-7 W's and then when the W is limping, some how its guideline tends to be 1's. 


"Whenever L is strong, W suffers from this so showing up isolated or, worse, not coming out at all."

Absolutely spot on again.  However it is usually the emotional end of that propels most all players to forge ahead and enter greater and greater risks of his buy-in and/or his win until he gives back all his win.  NOTE: I see that exact scenario most every session I play with many regular players. 


"So we can sit serenely at the table knowing that "natural" probabilities will make way more likely to get W clustered and/or L isolated."

Way too many variables and individualistic wagering personalities come into play to generalize this, IMO.

"Anyway whenever such of a feature will be disregarded for one or two times in a row, the future probability to get the "expected" will be so enlarged that our probability of success will be as high as 85% or more (instead of the expected 75%). It's just a matter of time that things must line up with the expected results."

The problem with "expected results" IMO, is that, we never know what will be presented in the small amount of presentments we are gambling at, rather than sitting in front of a computer screen running tens of thousands of simulated hands, etc.  Once you begin classifying as - and +, the frustration for losses as well as the artificial momentums for wins, will usually be detrimental to most all in countless ways when a scheduled protocol is followed for wagering.  NOTE: IMO.

"Truth to be told, it's quite unlikely that a WLL..WLL...situation happens, especially if we take care of the asym/sym feature of the results."

It happens to me all the time.

"So luring us not to wait therefore betting something "more due" no matter what."

"More Due" is extremely profitable as well as detrimental.  Extremely psychological decision making subject.  Wagering decisions are the interpretation that occurs as a result of a combination of several factors usually. The mind (yours and mine) has an automatic tendency to interpret an experience (previous hands of the shoe) or series of experiences (past in relationship to now from other shoes). Attempt to consciously analyze the data from within the experience you are wagering upon at the table is extremely difficult, that is if you are analyzing based upon what the casino desires you to—-the past several hands, etc.  It may seem to you that your mind is simply trying to figure out the experience, but actually it is screening for evidence to support the decision you are clinging to. HOWEVER, what you were clinging to and what the presentments coming out of the shoe will be, are two entirely different events. That is why you need to realize what the shoe is presenting and leave all of your feelings, desires and statistics out of your wagering decision making process. I give the disclaimer IMO.  But my opinion is based upon decades of actual playing experience.

Restricting the field of variance

Suppose we adopt a 0.75% probability of success: A perfect ideal balanced model will get us a 3:1 probability to win.
In the real world a succession as WWWLWWWLWWWL...is not going to show up so frequently (actually it's very unlikely to happen), yet it remains the "standard" to look for.
When W is consistent, W streaks are longer than 3; when W is limping, W streaks tend to be shorter than 3.
Whenever L is strong, W suffers from this so showing up isolated or, worse, not coming out at all.

On the other end, L is more likely to come out isolated than clustered or at least two-clustered.

Therefore cumulatively the least probable scenario is to get W isolated and L clustered.

So we can sit serenely at the table knowing that "natural" probabilities will make way more likely to get W clustered and/or L isolated.
Anyway whenever such of a feature will be disregarded for one or two times in a row, the future probability to get the "expected" will be so enlarged that our probability of success will be as high as 85% or more (instead of the expected 75%). It's just a matter of time that things must line up with the expected results.

To speed up the process of waiting for such of profitable situations, we could exploit many sub successions (derived roads, etc) getting that deviation.

Truth to be told, it's quite unlikely that a WLL..WLL...situation happens, especially if we take care of the asym/sym feature of the results.
So luring us not to wait therefore betting something "more due" no matter what.

Notice that LL or LLL... sequences won't get us any further damage at the cost that W clusters longer than 2 won't be exploited for the "fear" of crossing a 3:1 losing spot.

The easiest example I could provide is considering singles/doubles vs triples (3/3+) distribution.

as. 

Good thread indeed.

as.

Last night a few people were arrested after a major fight amongst them on the casino floor at the Baccarat tables last night.  Scuffle city, lots of action!

Pretty much a normal game. Just started, crowded, all incurring wins and losses of course. Banter back-and-forth amongst most everyone. About half Asian the rest were a few Latinos and whites. Mostly all known players.

Very well-known player walks up and talks to one of the individuals seated. His look by far is not the average one that he normally has. There is a guy standing a few seats away that just threw in about $700/800-ish and won the hand. Then he wagers on the next hand and won that one as well. The guy standing up and wagering on someone's spot was extremely quiet while not making eye contact with anyone.

The well-known player standing says something along the way of, now you should pay what you owe. Another well-known seated player whom I know it's not friends with the one that was standing that just said that, told him that the chips the guy was playing with was his money that he gave the guy. 

Turns out the guy standing, did previously borrow about $3K from the guy that told him, now you should pay what you owe. And it was owed to him, he just didn't want to come out and say that at the table in front of everyone.  Someone that was at the table with us did walk over to the guy standing whom was owed the money that the guy now obviously had, said a few things in Laos to the guy trying to get him to stop building the situation up that was quite evidently happening. 

Still no response or eye contact from the guy that owed the $3K to the other guy. The guy was still standing there wagering hands. I'm sure the guy that walked over and talked to the guy the money was owed to, told him that the guy claiming to have previously loaned the money obviously did not. 

The guy that was owed the $3k, his face was turning red. Not so much about the money IMO that was owed to him, but about the lying and the refusal to say anything or look at him.

The guy that the money was owed to, walked over to the guy standing and wagering, then said I shouldn't do this and hit him smack in the face and repeated it a second time on the opposite side. The guy that owed the money returned punches and the guy sitting that claimed to have lent the money to the guy, stands and attempts to break it all up. We all get up from the table and form a semi circle because we know security and on-premise sheriff deputies would be running over within a minute or two.

All three then began throwing full powered strikes at each other with the one who owed the money being knocked onto the table itself, causing numerous chips to scatter on the table and the floor. The dealer quickly grabs her chip rack cover and locks it down over the bank after loud verbal instructions from the pit boss. All kinds of personnel are running over to our table from inside the pit.

A few moments later several security and police officers arrive. All three of the players are handcuffed and lead away. The pit boss and security officers sort out the scattered chips and the chips that were belonging to the player seated, are put in a rack and given to one of the security officers.

Just another day around money I guess.

No party wound up pressing charges against the other I found out. All three received a 30 day ban from the property. It would have been permanent or for much longer, if any of the parties pressed charges and involved the criminal end of it.

I just have to post this link for the song that fits here, love the thoughts of the casinos and gaming included in it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w9vqQlJijbU&list=RDw9vqQlJijbU&start_radio=1&pp=ygUQbW9uZXkgcGluayBmbG95ZKAHAQ%3D%3D

Seriously people, watch this. 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NndCSi8WDcM

Most mistakes/mistaken

1) Play too long

If one thinks to play with an edge it doesn't matter how short or long are the sessions played, providing that the mental focus isn't declining for fatigue or bankroll status issues.


2) Chasing losses

Yep.
Card distributions are totally insensitive of our bankroll status and statistically speaking it's slight more probable to collect more losses after losing than to recoup everything or something already lost.


3) Chasing a singular win

Sooner or later we'll have to stop a losing sequence, that doesn't mean to chase losing streaks that can last 10-12 or more hands in a row.
3/4 of the times, winning is a clustered W affair, so there's no reason to bet when a L streak keep showing up or (more importantly) when wins come out as isolated.   

4) When it's there, you fail to wager and/or pump it up.

Here the problem is knowing "when is there" but the main factor why casinos keep collecting more money than expected by the HE is because players will be particularly aggressive when losing but cautious (or overly aggressive) while winning.

5) When it's not (NOT) there, you fail to stop
 
Excellent point.
Whenever it seems we're not guessing right a single hand, stay put and don't bet a dime.
Wait several hands before betting again or, even better, wait for the next shoe to be dealt.
The concept that every shoe dealt is beatable is a total complete bighornsh.i.t.

6) Constantly increasing Bankroll and Buy-in amounts

Another good point.
It takes a robust and verified long term W/L ratio before thinking to raise our standard bets as the house is constantly getting the favorite math side.

7) Failure to have a rock solid M.M.M.

In our opinion and after having verified a kind of an edge (and natural deviations), the best move to take is flat betting the maximum limit at the table. Or what we consider "max" in relationship of our bankroll.

#8) Failure to Reset and/or abide by your Tier/Plateau

Here we disagree.
We do not want to insert subjective factors into the game, unless affecting our future strategy (but since we've ascertained an edge we know that any kind of subjective adjustment will be worthless) 
 
Best defensive and offensive

1) Keep game relatively short

Good point if intended as short betting options into the realm of results.

2) Believing it will all change soon if you are 100% alert

One of the paramount factor to transform a loser into a possible winner.

3) Change your responses to be in control, you create what happens with your wagering and no one else does

Best advice ever.

4) Long term strength is M.M.M. applied and used as a protocol along with your emotions recognized and controlled while applying

Again, flat betting is the only way to ascertain a kind of long term advantage.

5) You do not have to have all the knowledge and experience

We completely disagree about this point.
Baccarat is a very complicated game needing years of experience and study to be possibly "resolved" on long terms.

6) Gear your mind towards the shoe, not a limited event(s) to occur or reoccur

Absolutely true, providing to assess the limit of average intervention.

as. 

There are conceptually four distinct types of pleasure; Physical, Social, Psychological and Ideological. Pretty simple. Factual and well written about in the academic world.

Now, they are within us all while we gamble at a live casino baccarat table. 

Physical pleasure is at the bottom of the triangle, the largest portion of the space. The next is Social pleasure, the second from top is Psychological pleasure and on top with its smallest demand is your Idealogical pleasure. Each is unique in its own way.

Keeping in mind that all of us have varying restrictions and limitations to the physical end of the four types, we all would be about equal at a live Baccarat table with them. Therefore the reach, strength, ability to grip and our ability to sustain effort are pretty much minimal at the baccarat table putting that about equal between us all.  A given IMO.

The Physical Pleasure end is visually obvious at the table, winning as well as losing both produces visual appearances and actions that are absolutely obvious.  There really isn't much to control here.

The Social Pleasure end is the enjoyment and satisfaction we all seek and engage in whether that be at the baccarat table or elsewhere. Social pleasure is fueled by positive feedback and the company of others. The baccarat table provides just those unless you are losing, but you have to take the good with the bad.  Losing tends to offer support within the Social aspect.

The Psychological Pleasure end is instantly enjoyed at the Baccarat table beyond belief to any non-Baccarat player watching. It is the personality that seeks out immediate gratification of our needs of joy, gladness and just that plain ole feeling good. However, it is often contrasted with similarly inclusive pain, suffering and our feeling bad. Hence, winning and losing.

The Idealogical Pleasure end is perhaps the most powerful and detailed personalized pleasure by far of the four. The Idealogical Pleasure is related to values and beliefs that will be mixed from the classical right and wrong. The good and bad. The winning ways (decisions) versus those ugly horrible losing ways (decisions). In other words, it is what you think and practice that will determine your Idealogical Pleasure outcomes. It will affect you stronger no matter what you may think, believe or subscribe to within the game of baccarat and its presentments within each and every shoe.

When you/anyone is at a live baccarat table wagering money, the four types of pleasure that I outlined herein will be continually touched upon without a doubt. Subconsciously as well as consciously.