Hi Rickk!

The principal aim of this plan is to win just one hand getting a general P 0.75 winning probability. If we are betting toward singles and doubles, we must hope that the third unwanted "3" won't come out after the other two different states (singles and doubles) had come out at least once each.
For example a P 1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-1-1 sequence, despite being so attractive doesn't elicit any betting.
If in the same sequence the 3 would be replaced by a 2 (1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1) we'll get four wins when betting "infinitely" and just one win after the 1 that follows the 2.

The 1-2 unit progression was just an example; actually we generally use a softer 1-1.3 or 1-1.5 progression, meaning that the main effort is focused about singles as doubles are considered just a back-up plan.

Of course the 0.75 P winning probability is extracted from a perfect 50/50 proposition but we know that bac B/P probabilities jump from 0.5/0.5 (sym hands) to 0.5793/0.4207 (asym hands), therefore in no way we could think to really wager each hand by a real 0.5068/0.4932 probability ratio.
Especially when we are restricting at most our range of intervention by quantity and quality factors.

as.

"Points" of interest

What is the long term distribution of Banker and Player final points?

Contrary to what many could think, only two categories of points will get the same probability to appear on both sides.
And of course those two are natural 8s and natural 9s. Every other point category will feature a different probability whether we are considering Banker or Player.
Another form to think about asymmetricity.

Hence the only situations where final points get a real symmetrical probability occur with naturals. Not even 6s and 7s will get a symmetrical probability (for obvious reasons).

That's why the Dragon bonus side bet involves a quite different house edge depending upon the side we choose to bet (by far the house edge is a lot lower on P side bets).

The slightest difference between same point B and P probabilities comes with "3" and "7" points. Then about non natural 8s and 9s, 0, 1 and 2 points.
Then "6" points.
Greatest gap in probability exists with 4s and 5s. (Obviously)

On average a deck will form around 19% of naturals on either side, thus around 4/5 of the total hands dealt are following a more or less pronounced asymmetricity.
Naturally we are not talking about more likely B or P outcomes, just about long term final points probability.

Of course the higher the point the better is the probability to win, yet itlr those point gaps are constantly moving around fixed probabilities, each point fighting with a general and an actual shoe probability.

Taken from another point of view, we should see that if 4s and 5s are the more gapped final points (5.4%) then a kind of Banker advantage is more concentrated right on those exact B final points. And we know this being absolutely correct as most asym B edge comes from standing 4s and 5s.

Well, standing. And not all 4s and 5s stand after Player draws.
Not mentioning that some 4s must stand when a third card ace id dealt to the Player, a slight negative edge situation.
And 4s and 5s cannot come infinitely.

The third more pronounced gap situation between same points is about point 6, now favoring Player side and accounting to around 1.1%.
That is that we'll get more P 6 final points than B 6 final points and of course a 6 point is long term favorite to win.

Cumulatively and regarding final points distribution, B 4s, B 5s and P 6s get a nearly 6.6% general asymmetrical probability to appear that we should compare to the actual shoe situations.


as.   

Yes, it would be a good start if MGM made smoking free one of their premises, imo.

as.

My comments.

As long as US keep getting this very high infection rate, nobody residing outside US will want to jump in Vegas or in US. (An exception are those degenerate poker players not knowing what are the real effects of a covid-19 infection)
USA is still the most Covid-19 infected country along with Brasil, India and Mexico (right now).
Not mentioning that aircrafts, especially long haul flights, are among the best places to be infected.

Checking the temperature is a total bighornsh.it. Anybody, infected or not, before entering a premise or an airport would like to be heavily loaded by Tylenol or ibuprofen or aspirin assumption.
Moreover many Covid-19 infection cases went without any fever and, sigh, without getting a positive test.

Buffets, imo, could be reopened as long as single portions of food would be available and where no customer can touch other than a single personal spoon.
And of course where a proper social distancing comes in order.

Parking fees: it's a total another bighornshit to make people pay the parking when entering a casino.
Did we need to get covid-19 to accomplish this?

Smoking.

It's a third rattlesnakeshit to allow people to smoke inside a casino, unless a very strong air ventilation is used. A wasted opportunity to stop the fkng smoking into a casino.

Imo and in the opinion of many, Vegas casinos will make a safe environment if:

- every person entering the premise must wear a face mask (not allowed a FFP2/FFP3 mask with a valve)

- many gel sanitizers are at disposal, forcing people to clean hands before any table/slot join or before/after any toilet enter/exit and buffet/restaurant enter/exit.
Covid-19 is very susceptible to any alcoholic/bleach solution.   

- a proper air ventilation is in order (many high end casinos offer a kind of clean air long since)

- no smoking is allowed. Smoke endorses the probability to get virus particles trapped in the air, thus increasing the probability to catch the unwanted fkng covid by simple breathing despite of the use of surgical masks.

- any person will constantly keep a "social distance" of at least 4-5 feet from another one.

Unfortunately long haul flights cannot guarantee a safe environment by any means.
An aircraft is the prototype of an indoor same breathing air enviroment, even if seats are distanced.
Probably only FFP2/FFP3 face masks and gloves wearing and a deep disinfection after any flight is the solution to lower the risk. It's like entering a covid-19 ICU, no more no less.

as.     

To get the idea that at baccarat things are constantly moving around clumps of key cards each time removed from the deck and then affecting or not the next results, let's shuffle an 8-deck shoe then taking out randomly, say 40 consecutive cards, and see what are the real outcomes coming out infinitely from this 40 cards sample.

Since our sample is randomly/randomly taken and on average we'll get about 7 hands (in form of B, P and T hands) we shouldn't expect to get other than a random pattern (ties ignored for simplicity) belonging to one of the possible 128 distributions. Of course patterns containing more B decisions will overcome the same P counterpart, as sooner or later this finite card distribution will produce some asym hands at various degrees. And we all know the overall general probability to get an asym hand is 8.6%. 

Since it's impossible to know which side will be more favored to win unless cards will form one or more asymmetrical hands, we could think to operate about the unlikelihood that long symmetrical patterns will happen along the way by the simplest form of symmetrical card distribution tools acting (or not) at various degrees.

Considering my above example, any 8-deck shoe is formed by at least nine 40-cards situations, each belonging to a given real asym/sym ratio and/or real sym/sym ratio, all producing each 7 different patterns.
In some sense there's no one single possibility in the world that homogeneous quality outcomes are going to produce the same quality back to back ratios occurred within consecutive portions of the deck.

More on that later.

as.

Yeah, I remember that! 
You had perfectly spotted the situation way before what actually really happened.

as.

Exactly Alba!

"Secure a profit"

If we think to get an edge at a given game and conditions are favourable, we should stay and play regardless of the actual economical situation.
As Albalaha sayed, it's only the long run which counts and itlr everything will come out, thus to secure a profit means "I know I'll surely lose, better to get the illusion to be ahead of something now".
Instead a proper formulation should be: favourable conditions are met, the more I play the more I'll win. Period.

"Quit when you are ahead"

Same bigornsh.it as above.
Our play cannot be splitted into sessions, it's just an infinite series of bets where the cumulative number of times we are ahead (by a W/L ratio) is equal to the cumulative number of times we are behind, all aggravated by the fact that bets are unfair payed in a way or another.
In some sense and oppositely thinking, the specular statement should be "do not quit when behind", a statement particularly liked by casinos.

"Stop win" and "Stop loss"

It depends about what we are considering.
Each class of Ws and Ls follow a general probability and an actual probability. For example I've presented random walks having a general probability to produce all wins for the entire lenght of the shoe, hence lowering the value of a stop win strategy.
On the other hand, some shoes will form many back to back losses that make a future winning streak less probable (mainly for a lack of space).

The actual probability, imo, should be considered either by a simple pattern point of view and, more importantly, by certain quality factors prompting the hands formation.

In no way we could think to hope for a preordered amount of W units either per each shoe or per a series of shoes as we do not know how things will develop and the same is true about Ls situations.

Knowing that the actual shoe has a probability different from zero to produce all winnings represents a good start.
Conversely, cards distributions forming unlikely "losing" situations at the start (albeit due for obvious reasons regarding variance) are not going to produce specular winning counterparts.
It's like stating that key cards clumped toward one side at the beginning are symmetrically clumped toward the opposite side thereafter.

Of course people making a living at numbers like to wager toward the unlikelihood that something won't happen, thus betting toward slight or intermediate more likely situations.
And more often than not the initial-mid sections of the actual shoe are offering us good hints.

as.

Hope you'll be back very soon. 

as.

 

Tomorrow I'll discuss nonsense topics as "quit when you are ahead", "secure a profit", and the more intriguing "stop win or stop loss", all "human factors" that cannot alter in our favor the natural flow of the game.

as. 

You are welcome! :-)

Obviously the level of asymmetricity (generally intended) of each shoe dealt is strictly related to the actual card distribution. Same shoes dealt and shuffled poorly tend to mantain the same level of asymmetricity but very often detected by different patterns' shapes. That's why we need several r.w.'s operating for us.

Since 1-2, 1-3 and B2/B1-B3 and P2/P1-P3 cover all the most frequent possibilities at various degrees, we might get a more precise idea about how "asymmetrically" cards are distributed along the actual shoe. Or, better sayed, which spots are more likely to be asymmetrically distributed.

Any 2-hand attack features a theorical winning probability of 0.75 on symmetrical hands and various different probabilities when one of two asymmetrical hands come along.
For example, if our plan dictates to wager P side two times and two asym hands come out, the P winning probability is restricted to about 0.6645.
In the same example, just one asym hand coming out on our two P betting attempts shifts the P winning probability to about 0.71.

Naturally asym hands don't come out around the corner, therefore many "more likely Banker outcomes" should be assessed by the actual quality/quantity pattern distribution. We do not want to bet a side being unnecessarily payed 0.95:1, especially when the actual distribution seems to privilege the symmetrical hands formation.

as. 

Hi Rickk.

Numbers register how many P2 doubles come out after an initial P2 "trigger": if P2 is limited by an immediate P1 or P3 the number registered will be 1.
If a couple of P2 patterns come around consecutively, we'll write 2. If three P2 patterns show up we'll write 3 and so on.

Example.

BPPBBBPBPPBBPPBBBBBPBPBBPPBPPBBPPBPPBPPPBPPBBBPPPPB according to the P2/P1-P3 r.w is:

1-2-4-2

In the same sequence the B2/B1-B3 r.w. is read as:

1-1-1


as.








 

In the last shoe notice how would fare a cumulative strategy applied simultaneously to every 6 possible "highest state" number pattern:

1. - -  + + + +

2. - + + + + -

3. + + + - + -

4. + + + + + -

5. - + + + + -

6. + + + - + -

7. + + - + + +

8. + + - + - +

9. + - + + - +

10. + - + + + +

11. + - + + + +

12. + - + + - +

13. + + - - + +

14. - + + + + -

15. + - + + - +

16. + + - - + +

17. + + - + - +

18. + + + - + -

19. + + + + - -

20. + + - + - +

21. + + + - +

22. - - + + + +

23. + - - + - +

24. + + + + - -

25. - - + + + -

26. + + + + - -

27. + - + + - -

28. + + + + - -

29. - + + + + -

30. + + + - + -

31. - - + + + +

32. + + - + + +

33. + + + - - -

34. - - + + + +

35. + + - + + +

36. + + + - - -

37. + + - - + +

38. - + - + + -

39. - + + + + +

40. - - - + + +

Another live shoe taken from the now defunct Lucky Dragon casino:

1-2-1-3-2-1-2-1-2-1-3-2-2-2-2-2-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-2-3

123) -,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+

132) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+

213) +,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+

231) +,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+

312) +,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,-

321) +,-,-,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,-

A couple of examples taken randomly.

Original shoe results: 2-1-2-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-3-2-1-3-3-1-3-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-2-2-2-1-1-1


123) +,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+

132) +,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+

213) -,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-

231) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+

312) +,-,-,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,-

321) +,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,+,+

Second shoe: 1-1-1-3-1-2-3-3-2-1-1-2-1-3-2-3-3-1-2-1-1-3-1-3-1-3-1-1-2-3-3-1-1-1-3-1-2-1

123) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+

132) -,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,++,+,+,-,-,+,+,+

213) +,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,-

231) +,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,-,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-

312) +,-,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-

321) +,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+

Even though original shoes were presented by the stupi.dest way of registration (big road) and that many - signs are getting us a -3 unit loss and nearly half of + signs are getting us an inferior +1 payment, some +/- situations are more "due" than others.

Notice that unb plan #1 worked wonderfully on first shoe but quite tremendously bad on the second one.
First shoe presented 21 states change and second shoe 27 states change.

1-step level unb plan #2 results got respectively a LWWW and WW events.

as.

Let's consider our old three different states where every pattern in the universe will belong to.

Generally speaking, the less will be the number of states occurring at a given shoe, better will be the probability to get long winning streaks as a single state or, more likely, a couple of states may be present for long without the "intrusive" effect of the unwelcome third one.

On the other end, we've seen that another strategy relies just upon the opposite thought, that is that certain spots must change their shape in a way or another.

Let's start to examine the theorically "perfect" situations capable to get the highest number of states change happening along any shoe.

When three different states are involved, only six possibilities getting ALL change states come around :

An "endless" succession of 1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3.... or 1-3-2-1-3-2-1-3-2... or 2-1-3-2-1-3-2-1-3... or
2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3-1... or 3-1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2... or 3-2-1-3-2-1-3-2-1....

Everything in between gets at least one "winning" situation, that is the third state must be silent for more than the 3-step steady pace featured on the above six patterns.

Notice that all six patterns came out by a 1/3 singles/streaks ratio instead of the more natural 1/1 ratio, meaning that those patterns are "biased" at the start.
Yet we are not interested about the numbers but about the pace.

In a sense we're trying to put in relationship those 6 different "biased" (hence asymmetrical) patterns with the actual natural asymmetrical production, not assigning a precise value to any side or value (as in no way itlr B1=P1, B2=P2 and B3=P3, not mentioning that in the overwhelming majority of times the "3" category inglobes very different patterns).

Even though many "natural" big road or derived roads registrations may offer some profitable opportunities, we need to set up more intricated random walks applied to the actual results' production.

as.