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Messages - 8OR9

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When asked how someone did today in speculating in the stock market, Forex or commodities, or a casino game such as baccarat dice or roulette, the amateur ( which includes 99.9% of the people in a casino), will respond saying that he made $ 200 or lost $ 400.

The intelligent, professional, speculator or gambler will say he won 2% of bankroll or 4 % of bankroll or lost 2% of bankroll or lost 4 % of bankroll

In every form of speculation or business startup, the speculator or businessman must fight a negative expectation (  except card counting in blackjack......which is no longer practical since you will eventually get thrown out unless you can put together a team such as the MIT team or the Holy Rollers )

In gambling, poker has the casino rake, dealer tip, and  after each pot, the band beat jackpot contribution as a negative expectation.

Roulette, baccarat and dice have a 1.3 % to 5.6 % negative expectation because of below fair payouts on winning bets.

In sports betting you generally have to bet $11 to win $ 10

In starting a business, you have a negative expectation of paying for business licenses, paying employees, paying rent for a location, paying utilities, paying for insurance etc etc etc.

In trading stocks or forex or commodities, you have the negative expectation of paying commissions for each trade, and "slippage", where you get the worst side of the trade ( you buy on the offer and sell on the bid price )

Whether you play casino games or start your own business, you have to deal with the 3 main reasons which will cause you to fail:

1. Poor business management....... failure to respond to changing economic conditions ( which now happen very rapidly )

2. Inferior, obsolete or poorly priced product that you offer to sell

3. Not sufficiently capitalized to handle the inevitable down swings in your business

Betting on casino games is basically just like running a business, and you must be able to deal with all 3 of the above situations.

1. Poor business management......is the game you are playing changing ? are the odds changing ?, are new odds or bets being offered ? is casino management changing as to how they monitor the game you are playing .  Is the game you are playing no longer beatable?

2.Inferior, obsolete or poorly priced product that you offer to sell....is your bet selection no longer valid, or does it have to be modified depending on the current spins of a roulette wheel or current texture of the baccarat shoe you are playing ?

3.Not sufficiently capitalized to handle the inevitable down swings in your business ...this is the most important...do you have sufficient bankroll to handle the worst drawdown possible ? Are you betting too high a % of bankroll on each bet or session ?

If you are trying to make a "career" in business, gambling or speculation, you must deal with the above   3 situations. 

The most important point to remember is that the main objective is not to "make money".....the main objective in bankroll preservation........you do not want to put yourself into a position where you lose most, or all of your business capital or gambling bankroll by risking too much as a % or capital or bankroll on any given bet or session.......because if you lose your business capital or bankroll, you are out of the game.

The only way to avoid failure is to risk a small % of bankroll on each bet and session, and try to stay in the game so that when the tome comes when you have to bet, and hopefully win, on your winning bets, you are still in the game......because in a negative expectation game, you have to win more on your winning bets that you lose on your losing bets.

Generally, you need a "big" bankroll to succeed......and "big" is a relative term......$ 50,000 may seem big to the forum members......but $ 50,000 is tip money for the waitress for Bill Gates.

If you are undercapitalized in a business startup, speculating in stocks, forex or commodities or betting on casino games........you will eventually fail.


Roulette Forum / Re: 9 sets of 4 numbers using random.org integers
« on: September 09, 2017, 01:07:50 pm »
1. What does the "D" mean next to the spin when it was up 73 units ?

2. Was the test against a single zero European wheel ?......I don't think this would work against a double zero wheel unless you split a bet between the 0 and 00 to protect yourself from the green monster

3. For all you baccarat fans....here is something to think about.....how about using   9 sets of 4 random Players and Bankers  and using the same method to determine wether to bet Player or Banker.....alternate the sets so that there are either 3 Bankers ands 1 Player or 1 Player and 3 Bankers, and bet the majority                    ( if 3 players  in the set, then bet player.........if 3 bankers in the set, then bet Banker

Lots of bad English in that letter.

Hope his method is better than his grammar.

Roulette Forum / Re: 9 sets of 4 numbers
« on: August 15, 2017, 11:28:04 pm »
If you live near a casino which has the live dealer dealing with the Fusion/Stadium setup with  roulette/blackjack/baccarat............you get a spin every 25 seconds...........so this would be a lot better than playing  on a regular roulette table which takes about 5 minutes for each spin,,,,,,,,,,especially on weekends..

Roulette Forum / Re: 9 sets of 4 numbers
« on: August 13, 2017, 02:18:44 am »
Can you give some examples of the vertical line [   and how you can use it to see if sets are equal?

Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Player and Dealer Types As I See It
« on: August 06, 2017, 03:57:01 pm »
If you play the new Fusion baccarat/blackjack/roulette computer game by IGT or Scientific games........they use a real dealer and you enter the bets on a terminal without any chips.

Eliminates the following:

1. People constantly coloring up or buying in and waiting for a supervisor to verify the amount.
2. Eliminates slow/obnoxious dealers ...dealers are usually on other side of the casino ( connected using wifi ) and they have to deal the cards or spin the wheel every 25 seconds.
3. Eliminates 99.9 % of dealer mistakes ( taking extra card in bac etc etc )
4. Eliminates dealer payoff mistakes in bac and roulette and blackjack.
5. Eliminates cheating (past posting bets,    dealer / player collusion etc )
6. Eliminates dealer having to calculate banker commission after each banker baccarat bet and  having to collect banker commissions at end of the shoe
7. Plays each bac hand in 25 seconds.......eliminates 8 players staring at each other and picking their noses for 5 minutes at a regular bac table trying to decide what to bet on.
8. Players can sit almost the entire shoe without any bad looks from the dealer or supervisor


Jaguar's Advantage / Re: Baccarat Player's Advantage
« on: July 30, 2017, 03:09:45 am »
Singapore and Macau are notorious for employee/customer scam artists.

I am sure that they are reviewing the surveillance videos backwards and forwards and in super slow motion to try to find out what "really" happened.........................something smells really bad.

Alrelax's Blog / Re: Book Recommendation
« on: July 27, 2017, 02:25:20 am »
Another good casino book is "Fools Die" by Godfather author Mario Puzo.

You can probably get it for free at your library.

Written in 1979 it's a little outdated.......but still a very good read.......I'm surprised it hasn't been made into a movie.

Baccarat Forum / Re: It breaks my heart ! T_T
« on: July 21, 2017, 11:32:27 pm »
Hey 8or9,

I guess with online casinos, I can always transfer my bankroll to sports and hold it there so that I don't see the entire amount in the baccarat room and only bring say $200 to play base bet $5.  Win $80 leave, lose $200 not my day.

Is this a good plan?


Winning 80$ versus losing $200 is a bad ratio in my opinion.....I would try to get the profit potential up to at least
$ 100 or $ 120....but that's only my opinion.

Baccarat Forum / Re: It breaks my heart ! T_T
« on: July 19, 2017, 11:29:07 pm »
Well you have heard it many times before,,,,,,,,,,,fail to plan,,,,,,,,,.then plan to fail.

Set  a conservative % of bankroll that you will lose on any shoe / and session

Like wise set a % of bankroll you will try to win on a shoe / and session

(A session can be any number of shoes that you predetermine )

Physically segregate your bankroll in a separate place ( such as a portable fireproof safe (Walmart sells one for about         $ 30 ). Add your profits and deduct your losses from the bankroll

Create a spreadsheet with your profit or loss for each shoe/session....and also include a comments to write down what you did right and what you did wrong.

Sounds like too much work  ?,,,,,,,,well then be prepared to pay a big price as MrGrindyoudown unfortunately experienced.

Baccarat Forum / Re: Perception
« on: July 16, 2017, 05:16:19 pm »
If string theory can ever be proven mathematically, there may be 10, 11 or 26 dimensions in addition to our current three            (height, length and depth )        ( or 4 if you include time )........and those dimensions may be currently existing but we unfortunately can not experience them with our five senses......so now what would be the correct definition of reality ???   

"In my Father's house there are many mansions"

Baccarat Forum / Re: see for yourself how to win
« on: July 11, 2017, 02:29:22 pm »
Ask him if that is practice money or real money....................have him deposit $,5000 in real money and then bet his method and lets see what happens.

Baccarat Forum / Re: My casino is lazy
« on: July 09, 2017, 07:53:43 pm »
If you are bothered by all the people, then best way to play is the new Stadium ( Also called Fusion) baccarat where each player has his own terminal to place bets with a live dealer ( no RNG ) ....Sands casino in Pennsylvania has about 120 terminals with         4 live bac dealers so you can change shoes at any time.........only bad thing is the smoke from all the chain smokers....you have to wear a mask or nose clips.....but at least you are kind of separated from the rest of the customers.

Also the Venetian/Pallazo in Vegas has the Stadium games.

The stadium/fusion baccarat, blackjack, roulette, craps and Sicbo terminals with live dealers are the wave of the future since the casino can save money on dealers........but the dealers get screwed because their tips go down.

Blackjack Forum / Re: BJ the infallible method!
« on: July 03, 2017, 01:01:44 am »
If your basic bet is $100, then a 617 unit bankroll needed $ 61,700....which is getting into Bill Gates, Warren Buffet territory.

Even a $ 10 basic bet will require a $ 6,170 bankroll........not for the faint of heart. 

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