« on: September 11, 2017, 01:26:16 pm »
In every form of speculation or business startup, the speculator or businessman must fight a negative expectation ( except card counting in blackjack......which is no longer practical since you will eventually get thrown out unless you can put together a team such as the MIT team or the Holy Rollers )
In gambling, poker has the casino rake, dealer tip, and after each pot, the band beat jackpot contribution as a negative expectation.
Roulette, baccarat and dice have a 1.3 % to 5.6 % negative expectation because of below fair payouts on winning bets.
In sports betting you generally have to bet $11 to win $ 10
In starting a business, you have a negative expectation of paying for business licenses, paying employees, paying rent for a location, paying utilities, paying for insurance etc etc etc.
In trading stocks or forex or commodities, you have the negative expectation of paying commissions for each trade, and "slippage", where you get the worst side of the trade ( you buy on the offer and sell on the bid price )
Whether you play casino games or start your own business, you have to deal with the 3 main reasons which will cause you to fail:
1. Poor business management....... failure to respond to changing economic conditions ( which now happen very rapidly )
2. Inferior, obsolete or poorly priced product that you offer to sell
3. Not sufficiently capitalized to handle the inevitable down swings in your business
Betting on casino games is basically just like running a business, and you must be able to deal with all 3 of the above situations.
1. Poor business management......is the game you are playing changing ? are the odds changing ?, are new odds or bets being offered ? is casino management changing as to how they monitor the game you are playing . Is the game you are playing no longer beatable?
2.Inferior, obsolete or poorly priced product that you offer to sell....is your bet selection no longer valid, or does it have to be modified depending on the current spins of a roulette wheel or current texture of the baccarat shoe you are playing ?
3.Not sufficiently capitalized to handle the inevitable down swings in your business ...this is the most important...do you have sufficient bankroll to handle the worst drawdown possible ? Are you betting too high a % of bankroll on each bet or session ?
If you are trying to make a "career" in business, gambling or speculation, you must deal with the above 3 situations.
The most important point to remember is that the main objective is not to "make money".....the main objective in bankroll preservation........you do not want to put yourself into a position where you lose most, or all of your business capital or gambling bankroll by risking too much as a % or capital or bankroll on any given bet or session.......because if you lose your business capital or bankroll, you are out of the game.
The only way to avoid failure is to risk a small % of bankroll on each bet and session, and try to stay in the game so that when the tome comes when you have to bet, and hopefully win, on your winning bets, you are still in the game......because in a negative expectation game, you have to win more on your winning bets that you lose on your losing bets.
Generally, you need a "big" bankroll to succeed......and "big" is a relative term......$ 50,000 may seem big to the forum members......but $ 50,000 is tip money for the waitress for Bill Gates.
If you are undercapitalized in a business startup, speculating in stocks, forex or commodities or betting on casino games........you will eventually fail.